🧵President Biden's economic legacy, in charts. First, the unemployment rate at 4.1% on average is the lowest (best) among the last 14 presidents, for FRED data back to 1948. 1/
The real (infl-adj) hourly wages for production & non-supervisory workers (the bottom 80% of the private sector) averaged higher under Biden than the last 11 presidents. In other words, workers had more purchasing power under Biden than other presidents, despite inflation. 2/
Taking the first two charts together, Biden has the best combination of unemployment and real wages among the last 11 presidents. This is the best reading on the "Prosperity Matrix" of any modern president. 3/
You can see the significant improvement in the unemployment rate here, which fell from 6.4% when Biden started to 4.1% as of October '24, the latest FRED data at the county level. Are you better off than 4 years ago? Obviously. 4/
Americans also became the richest ever in terms of real (infl-adj) net worth, across the wealth distribution, in early 2022 under Biden. We're still way above 2019. This was from big gains in stocks and housing, plus pandemic savings and stimulus. 5/
About 7 million more are working than pre-pandemic peak, which was regained in June 2022. Even if you start measuring Biden there, and compare that to Trump pre-pandemic, Biden has had much faster job creation. 6/
Biden's perfectly-timed immigrant surge is projected by CBO (the most credible source available) to add $65,000 per household to income over a decade ($9T extra GDP), while reducing deficits nearly $1 trillion. 7/ cbo.gov/publication/60…
Real GDP growth under Biden was a robust 3.0%, slightly faster than Trump pre-pandemic. GDP had regained it's pre-pandemic peak by the time Biden started. 8/
A secret about inflation is that it helps debtors with fixed payments, like homeowners and Uncle Sam. The debt to GDP ratio has fallen from the Trump peak, as nominal GDP has grown faster than debt. 9/ fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYGFGDQ…
It's obvious we're better off than 4 years ago, as the pandemic recovery was still underway. But what about relative to 2019 pre-pandemic? Well, in fact most measures even adjusted for inflation were better in 2022 & 2023 than 2019. 10/
Looking at it another way, here is the cumulative growth in several key measures of household prosperity compared to 2019 and inflation. 11/ fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…
Biden's immigration surge and infrastructure law (with its 60,000+ projects) have helped setup our next decade for economic success. He raised taxes on the rich and corporations via IRA. Here is a thread on his many legislative achievements. 12/
Violent crime rate has fallen under Biden, to below the 2019 level and far below the 2020 Trump Spike. 13/ cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#
Biden's support for the ACA helped reduce the number of uninsured to a record low by 2022 in both $ and % terms, for data back to 1990's. /14 whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
People upset about inflation should realize it was global, wages outgrew it vs. pre-pandemic (we had more purchasing 2021-2024 than 2019), and that inflation is the Fed's job. The U.S. had comparable inflation yet faster growth than other advanced economies. 15/
The media worked incredibly hard to help Trump, creating fake crises in immigration, housing, inflation, and crime. It will be interesting to see how they negatively spin Biden's incredible record. 16/END
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🧵Monthly economic update, through the February 2025 results, Trump's first month. First, we added 151,000 jobs in Feb and are now nearly 7 million jobs above the pre-pandemic peak, which was regained in June 2022. We've set records for number with jobs monthly thereafter. 1/
Job creation (Establishment Survey) has averaged about 200,000 over the past 3 months, very solid historically. 2/
The more volatile Household Survey was mostly negative, with a 588,000 decline in the number employed and 203,000 more unemployed. The unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.1%, still very low by historical standards. 3/
🧵Where does the national debt come from? 1. Recessions, which cause revenue to fall and automatic stabilizer spending (like unemployment insurance) to rise w/o legislation. 2. Tax cuts 3. Wars 4. Recessions, via stimulus legislation 5. Interest 1/ cbo.gov/sites/default/…
Recessions and the responses (automatic and legislative) are the primary driver. 10 of the last 11 started under Republicans. Every Republican president since Benjamin Harrison, who served from 1889 to 1893, had a recession start on their watch. 2/
Budget deficits have increased under every Republican but Eisenhower, and fallen under every Democrat but Kennedy. Deficits increase/worsen 3.25% GDP on average under Republicans, and fall/improve by 3.0% GDP under Democrats. So who's the party of fiscal responsibility? 3/
🧵Monthly economic review, through the Jan '25 data, Biden's last month. First, we added a decent 143,000 jobs in January. We're up about 6.7 million jobs from the pre-pandemic peak, which was regained in June 2022, and 16.1 million vs. Biden start. 1/ fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
The monthly job creation rate had been fading, but surged in the past 3 months to a robust 237,000 average. This was after benchmark revisions, done routinely each year. 2/
No matter how you slice it, job creation under Biden was faster than Trump, even comparing Trump pre-pandemic (180k/mo) to Biden post-recovery (217k/mo). 3/
🧵The MSM created 4 fake crises (Inflation, Immigration, Housing, and Crime), which helped Trump get elected while hiding record prosperity. Here are slides explaining the counter-arguments to such misinformation, plus a few charts and links included for more details. 1/
Facts regarding the false narratives on housing and crime. 2/
Wages & Inflation should be reported in context. Purchasing power is what matters.
☑️Wages have outgrown inflation.
☑️Real (inflation-adjusted) wages have always been higher than 2019 during 2021-2024.
☑️Biden has the highest avg. real wages among the last 11 presidents. 3/
🧵Monthly economic update, through November:
First, job creation was +227,000 jobs, or +283,000 after upward adjustments to Sept & Oct. We're now +16.4 million jobs from when Biden started and +7.0 million vs. pre-pandemic peak regained in June 2022. 1/
🏆Biden is the only president with positive job creation every month in office.
No matter how you slice and adjust it, job creation is much faster under Biden than Trump:
The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% in November, to 4.2%. The historical average back to 1948 is 5.7%. The 2022 & 2023 annual average of 3.6% was lower than Trump's best of 3.7% in 2019. The last 3.5% year was 1969. 3/
🧵How Democrats should talk about the economy, in plain language:
1. Biden has the lowest unemployment rate on average among the last 11 presidents.
2. Workers have the highest real hourly wages (purchasing power) on average under Biden, despite inflation. 1/
If you want job creation, elect a Democrat president. Amazingly, 98% of job creation since 1989 was under Democratic presidents, 50 million to 1 million.
If you pretend the pandemic didn't happen and charge Bush 43 for the 2009 jobs losses, you get 46 to 6. 2/
Biden delivered an incredibly low unemployment rate, best among the last 11 presidents as mentioned. The unemployment rate averaged 3.6% in both 2022 and 2023. Trump's best was 3.7% in 2019. You have to go back to 1969 for a 3.5% year. 3/