David Doney Profile picture
Jan 5 16 tweets 7 min read Read on X
🧵President Biden's economic legacy, in charts. First, the unemployment rate at 4.1% on average is the lowest (best) among the last 14 presidents, for FRED data back to 1948. 1/ Image
The real (infl-adj) hourly wages for production & non-supervisory workers (the bottom 80% of the private sector) averaged higher under Biden than the last 11 presidents. In other words, workers had more purchasing power under Biden than other presidents, despite inflation. 2/ Image
Taking the first two charts together, Biden has the best combination of unemployment and real wages among the last 11 presidents. This is the best reading on the "Prosperity Matrix" of any modern president. 3/ Image
You can see the significant improvement in the unemployment rate here, which fell from 6.4% when Biden started to 4.1% as of October '24, the latest FRED data at the county level. Are you better off than 4 years ago? Obviously. 4/ Image
Americans also became the richest ever in terms of real (infl-adj) net worth, across the wealth distribution, in early 2022 under Biden. We're still way above 2019. This was from big gains in stocks and housing, plus pandemic savings and stimulus. 5/ Image
Image
About 7 million more are working than pre-pandemic peak, which was regained in June 2022. Even if you start measuring Biden there, and compare that to Trump pre-pandemic, Biden has had much faster job creation. 6/ Image
Biden's perfectly-timed immigrant surge is projected by CBO (the most credible source available) to add $65,000 per household to income over a decade ($9T extra GDP), while reducing deficits nearly $1 trillion. 7/
cbo.gov/publication/60…Image
Real GDP growth under Biden was a robust 3.0%, slightly faster than Trump pre-pandemic. GDP had regained it's pre-pandemic peak by the time Biden started. 8/ Image
A secret about inflation is that it helps debtors with fixed payments, like homeowners and Uncle Sam. The debt to GDP ratio has fallen from the Trump peak, as nominal GDP has grown faster than debt. 9/
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYGFGDQ…Image
Image
It's obvious we're better off than 4 years ago, as the pandemic recovery was still underway. But what about relative to 2019 pre-pandemic? Well, in fact most measures even adjusted for inflation were better in 2022 & 2023 than 2019. 10/ Image
Looking at it another way, here is the cumulative growth in several key measures of household prosperity compared to 2019 and inflation. 11/
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…Image
Biden's immigration surge and infrastructure law (with its 60,000+ projects) have helped setup our next decade for economic success. He raised taxes on the rich and corporations via IRA. Here is a thread on his many legislative achievements. 12/
Violent crime rate has fallen under Biden, to below the 2019 level and far below the 2020 Trump Spike. 13/
cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#Image
Biden's support for the ACA helped reduce the number of uninsured to a record low by 2022 in both $ and % terms, for data back to 1990's. /14
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…Image
People upset about inflation should realize it was global, wages outgrew it vs. pre-pandemic (we had more purchasing 2021-2024 than 2019), and that inflation is the Fed's job. The U.S. had comparable inflation yet faster growth than other advanced economies. 15/ Image
The media worked incredibly hard to help Trump, creating fake crises in immigration, housing, inflation, and crime. It will be interesting to see how they negatively spin Biden's incredible record. 16/END

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More from @David_Charts

Dec 14, 2024
🧵Monthly economic update, through November:
First, job creation was +227,000 jobs, or +283,000 after upward adjustments to Sept & Oct. We're now +16.4 million jobs from when Biden started and +7.0 million vs. pre-pandemic peak regained in June 2022. 1/ Image
🏆Biden is the only president with positive job creation every month in office.

No matter how you slice and adjust it, job creation is much faster under Biden than Trump:

Biden July 2022-present: +239,000 / month
Trump pre-pandemic: +180,000 / month 2/ Image
The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% in November, to 4.2%. The historical average back to 1948 is 5.7%. The 2022 & 2023 annual average of 3.6% was lower than Trump's best of 3.7% in 2019. The last 3.5% year was 1969. 3/ Image
Read 17 tweets
Dec 7, 2024
🧵How Democrats should talk about the economy, in plain language:

1. Biden has the lowest unemployment rate on average among the last 11 presidents.

2. Workers have the highest real hourly wages (purchasing power) on average under Biden, despite inflation. 1/ Image
If you want job creation, elect a Democrat president. Amazingly, 98% of job creation since 1989 was under Democratic presidents, 50 million to 1 million.

If you pretend the pandemic didn't happen and charge Bush 43 for the 2009 jobs losses, you get 46 to 6. 2/ Image
Biden delivered an incredibly low unemployment rate, best among the last 11 presidents as mentioned. The unemployment rate averaged 3.6% in both 2022 and 2023. Trump's best was 3.7% in 2019. You have to go back to 1969 for a 3.5% year. 3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Nov 23, 2024
🧵In debating the economy, Democrats get caught arguing in the box Republican and media set.

First, what matters is purchasing power (income relative to prices), not inflation. Purchasing power has been above 2019 throughout the Biden era. 1/
"Wages have outgrown inflation so you're better off" should have been the party line from the start. Too often, Democrats apologized for the price level, or talked about how the inflation rate was slowing. 2/ Image
Democrats also got caught arguing about "Border Security" as opposed to saying "Immigrants make us all richer" or "Boomers retiring in droves means we need lots of immigrant workers." Trump blocked meaningful bi-partisan reform. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 6, 2024
@RadioFreeTom Biden's first term was the most successful economically since the late 1960's. Wages, net worth, stocks, GDP and housing far outgrew inflation. The 3.6% unemployment rates in 2022 & 2023 were better than 2019 at 3.7%. Biden's job creation much faster no matter how it's sliced. Image
@RadioFreeTom Source data for the graph.
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…
Read 4 tweets
Oct 12, 2024
🧵Monthly economic update, through the September data. We added a robust 254,000 jobs in Sept. We are now 6.8 million jobs above pre-pandemic peak, regained in June 2022. 1/ Image
Job creation much faster under Biden than Trump, no matter how you slice and adjust it. Obama's 2nd term also had faster job creation than Trump pre-pandemic. 2/ Image
The unemployment rate was 4.1% in September, down 0.1%. It was below the historical average of 5.7% for data back to 1948.

The unemployment rate averaged of 3.6% in 2022 and 2023 under Biden; the last year with a 3.5% average was 1969. 3/ Image
Read 19 tweets
Sep 29, 2024
🧵Immigration thread with talking points, supporting sources & graphics.
❌There is no border crisis.
⬆️Immigrants are boosting the economy to the tune of $65,000 per U.S. household over a decade.
❌There is no immigrant crime wave.
⚖️There is a court backlog to solve. 1/ Image
CBO: Immigrants forecast to add nearly $65,000 per household to income and wealth over next decade, or $9 trillion in GDP. Why? Immigrant spending is our income. They also help reduce deficits, with $1 trillion more revenue. 2/
cbo.gov/publication/60…
Image
Immigrants key to our ongoing boom, accounting for about one-fifth of GDP growth since pre-pandemic. 3/ Image
Read 7 tweets

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