Joni Askola Profile picture
Jan 6 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/10 Why russia is losing the war it started and why it will only cease its actions when confronted with strength Image
2/10 russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has proven to be a failure thus far. Nearly three years into the conflict, russia has suffered over 700,000 casualties and continues to fight on its own soil in Kursk, all while failing to achieve its original strategic goals. Image
3/10 By the end of March 2022, russia had occupied approximately 30% of Ukraine, but after nearly three years of fighting, it now controls only about 20%. Despite mobilizing and receiving significant support from its allies, russia is experiencing failure. Image
4/10 At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine held control of 23 regional capitals and cities with special status. russia currently occupies none of these, signifying a strategic failure. Image
5/10 russia's economy is overheating, leading to a key interest rate increase to 21%. The inflation is primarily driven by labor shortages, heightened public spending, and sanctions. The economy is unlikely to stabilize unless the war ends or is significantly scaled back. Image
6/10 russia is losing equipment at a much faster rate than it can produce, relying on its dwindling Soviet-era stockpiles to replace most of its losses. These stocks are running low, and production is unlikely to increase sufficiently in time to make up for the shortfall. Image
7/10 russia has also experienced a coup attempt during the war, revealing that many russians are unwilling to defend the current regime. Prigozhin was able to seize Rostov, a city with a population of one million, without encountering any resistance. Image
8/10 Putin currently believes russia's situation will improve, giving him no reason to end the war. The only way to compel him to stop is to convince him that continuing the conflict will worsen russia's future. Image
9/10 russia will only end the war when faced with genuine strength. Ukraine's allies must show patience and commit to increased military aid, threatening prolonged support if russia continues, to enhance the chances of achieving peace. Image
10/10 Source:
ISW
The Economist - russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out Image

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More from @joni_askola

Apr 25
1/7 Ukraine’s defense industry is not operating at full capacity. What are we waiting for to place enough orders to reach full capacity? Europe, wake up! Image
2/7 Europe loves making excuses. We claim we can’t send more aid because our stockpiles are low, yet we don’t place orders to replenish them. If we don’t want to send our own equipment, we can always order from Ukraine’s industry Image
3/7 Ukraine’s defense industry is formidable, producing weapons quickly and at a low cost. It’s the best bang for your buck, and Ukraine knows how to use them effectively. This also helps Ukraine become less dependent on its allies Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 25
1/4 russia is losing the unprovoked war it started and has been fighting for nothing for the last three years. The fact that Trump’s peace proposal is more favorable to Ukraine than the 2022 Istanbul draft proves this Image
2/4 russia is losing the war, now occupying about 19% of Ukraine compared to 30% in March 2022. The fact that the Istanbul draft was worse for Ukraine than Trump’s current proposal shows russia has fought for nothing all this time. What a waste! Pathetic! Image
3/4 The deal Trump is offering to Ukraine is better than one in Istanbul, but it is still unfair. The war is likely to continue, and Europe needs to make long-term commitments of aid to Ukraine to give it more leverage in the negotiations Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 23
1/17 Europe is already at war. It’s high time we stop ignoring this reality! Image
2/17 Most Europeans are divided between those who know how serious the situation is but prefer not to think about it too much, and those who don’t know what a war is. It’s time they learn, and high time we all admit to ourselves that we are at war with russia Image
3/17 Some have been criticized in Europe for saying that we are at war, but they were right. There are many forms of war, and russia is imposing several of them on Europe Image
Read 17 tweets
Apr 18
1/7 Failure Unlimited: russia has suffered 900,000 total casualties, expanded NATO, militarized Ukraine, and ruined its own economy, while reducing its control from about 30% of Ukraine in March 2022 to roughly 19% now. Look at the maps and witness the catastrophe! Image
2/7 russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has marked its most significant failure during Putin’s reign. Not only has russia failed in its invasion, but it has also paid a huge price on many levels Image
3/7 In March 2022, russia occupied approximately 30% of Ukraine, but over three years later, it now occupies only 19%. This reduction has come at the expense of 900,000 russian casualties, ruined demographics, and a devastated economy. Pathetic! Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 15
1/6 Trump’s negotiation strategy on Ukraine is failing: Being soft on russia has never worked and never will. Putin keeps humiliating him, yet Trump keeps asking for more Image
2/6 Trump vowed to bring peace to Ukraine within 24 hours. However, after nearly 3 months in the White House, he has yet to secure even a partial ceasefire. It is important to hold him accountable for this unfulfilled promise because it comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives Image
3/6 Trump’s strategy has consistently been misguided. Despite Ukraine agreeing to an unconditional ceasefire, he continues to pressure and threaten them. Meanwhile, he exerts no pressure on russia and even makes excuses for their actions. He keeps projecting weakness Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 9
1/9 russia is actually losing the war it started in Ukraine. Here’s why: Image
2/9 russia is unable to reach its stratetic goals of demilitarization and ’denazification,’ which require a forced ’regime change’ in Ukraine. Ukraine is more sovereign and more militarized than before the war Image
3/9 russia occupied around 30% of Ukraine at the end of March 2022. Three years and approximately 900k total casualties later, it occupies 19% of Ukraine. russia has achieved nothing, but this nothing has come at a huge cost! Image
Read 9 tweets

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