Joni Askola Profile picture
Jan 6 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/10 Why russia is losing the war it started and why it will only cease its actions when confronted with strength Image
2/10 russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has proven to be a failure thus far. Nearly three years into the conflict, russia has suffered over 700,000 casualties and continues to fight on its own soil in Kursk, all while failing to achieve its original strategic goals. Image
3/10 By the end of March 2022, russia had occupied approximately 30% of Ukraine, but after nearly three years of fighting, it now controls only about 20%. Despite mobilizing and receiving significant support from its allies, russia is experiencing failure. Image
4/10 At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine held control of 23 regional capitals and cities with special status. russia currently occupies none of these, signifying a strategic failure. Image
5/10 russia's economy is overheating, leading to a key interest rate increase to 21%. The inflation is primarily driven by labor shortages, heightened public spending, and sanctions. The economy is unlikely to stabilize unless the war ends or is significantly scaled back. Image
6/10 russia is losing equipment at a much faster rate than it can produce, relying on its dwindling Soviet-era stockpiles to replace most of its losses. These stocks are running low, and production is unlikely to increase sufficiently in time to make up for the shortfall. Image
7/10 russia has also experienced a coup attempt during the war, revealing that many russians are unwilling to defend the current regime. Prigozhin was able to seize Rostov, a city with a population of one million, without encountering any resistance. Image
8/10 Putin currently believes russia's situation will improve, giving him no reason to end the war. The only way to compel him to stop is to convince him that continuing the conflict will worsen russia's future. Image
9/10 russia will only end the war when faced with genuine strength. Ukraine's allies must show patience and commit to increased military aid, threatening prolonged support if russia continues, to enhance the chances of achieving peace. Image
10/10 Source:
ISW
The Economist - russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jul 26
1/6 🚨 WARNING THREAD:

Europe is sleepwalking into a drone disaster.

Unmanned systems are reshaping warfare — and we still treat them like a niche.

The wake-up call is coming fast, and it won’t be gentleImage
2/6 russia isn’t just fighting Ukraine — it’s preparing for war with the rest of Europe.

The war keeps escalating. It’s nowhere near ending.

russia is building bases on its western borders and has a huge drone advantage. We are still dragging our feet Image
3/6 If European leaders truly understood how critical unmanned systems have become, they’d be scrambling to train more troops and instructors, be ready to scale up production, and flood the battlefield.

Instead, we are waking up slowly — still treating them as a niche Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 25
1/7 Who needs enemies with allies like us?

Ukraine has the worst allies imaginable — russia’s are far better.

The West overpromises, underdelivers, and interferes.

Meanwhile, russia’s allies — china, north korea, iran — send weapons, ammo, even troops. No strings attachedImage
2/7 Western aid is slow, limited, and conditional.

Ukraine has to beg for months, only to get less than promised — and too late.

We restrict how they use it, interfere in their politics, and even leak their military plans.

This isn’t support. It’s sabotage Image
3/7 north korea alone sends more shells to russia than the entire west sends to Ukraine — and even sends troops.

iran sends drones. china sends tech and money.

No red lines. No lectures. No delays.

russia’s allies act. We hesitateImage
Read 7 tweets
Jul 25
1/5 THREAD: Trouble in hell?

russia just cut its interest rate to 18% — despite slowing but still high inflation.

Why? Because the economy is cooling fast.

Any European country would be booming with this level of stimulus. russia? Nearing recession and stagflationImage
2/5 From 7.5% in June 2023 to 21%, then 20%, now 18% — russia’s central bank is scrambling.

It’s trying to heat up the economy that’s barely moving.

This isn’t just a slowdown. It’s quasi stagflation: high inflation + no growthImage
3/5 Sanctions are working — especially the latest ones.

The economy isn’t collapsing, but it’s clearly hurting.

Even Nabiullina, one of the world’s most capable central bankers, is running out of options Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 24
1/5 A message to Ukraine’s allies:

Ukrainians should be the ones to decide their domestic affairs. If Zelensky overreaches, Ukraine’s civil society will respond accordingly.

We support Ukraine because it’s the right thing to do — and because it’s in our strategic interestImage
2/5 Ukraine deserves democracy and transparency — and Ukrainians know it.

If Zelensky overreaches, Ukraine’s civil society will push back.

Wartime centralization of power is normal — but there are limits to everything. It’s up to Ukrainians to decide where those limits lieImage
3/5 Conditioning support to Ukraine on its internal politics is not principled — it’s virtue signaling. It’s also a convenient excuse to do less.

We are not defending Ukraine because it’s a democracy, but because it’s the right thing to do and because it’s in our interestImage
Read 5 tweets
Jul 17
1/6 THREAD: One of Putin’s biggest strategic failures is barely talked about.

He invaded Ukraine, claiming NATO was an existential threat to Russia

But as a direct result of that failed invasion, NATO’s border with russia has doubledImage
2/6 Before 2022, russia shared a small NATO border with Norway and the Baltics.

Now?

Finland joined NATO, adding over 1,300 km of new border.

Sweden joined too, strengthening NATO’s northern flank.

All because of Putin’s warImage
3/6 russia claimed it had to invade Ukraine to ”push NATO back.”

Instead, it pushed NATO forward.

This is a historic strategic blunder — and somehow, it’s not getting the attention it deservesImage
Read 6 tweets
Jul 16
1/7 THREAD: Europe is at war.

Not in theory. Not in the future. Now.

russia is invading a European country, bombing civilians daily, launching drones into EU airspace, and waging hybrid war.

We ignore it because it’s painful. But denial won’t stop the war — it will spread itImage
2/7 Ukraine is Europe.

And russia’s war on Ukraine is a war on European sovereignty, security, and values.

This isn’t just Ukraine’s fight.

It’s Europe’s war — whether we admit it or notImage
3/7 russia already considers itself at war with the West.

It acts like it. We don’t.

That’s our biggest mistake.

11 years of escalation — from Crimea to full-scale invasion. Now even north korea is sending troops.

And we are still waitingImage
Read 7 tweets

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