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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Jan 6 • 9 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
A must read: Politico’s list of 2025 black swans: Russia or Ukraine collapse, China-Taiwan clash, AI backlash, nuclear Iran, US debt crisis, space attacks, health system crisis. 1/ Image
1. On Russia-Ukraine: the war might freeze but won’t end; Putin would start losing power in Russia.

I would add: a spectacular collapse of either Russia or Ukraine, a use of nukes, or other powerful new weapons by either side, mass migration. 2/
2. China-Taiwan clash: Beijing ramps up military drills near Taiwan. Markets dive. Global supply chains shatter. Tensions ripple across Asia.

3. AI backlash: Strikes over job losses. Disinfo explodes. Rogue AI systems cause real-world harm. Governments scramble to catch up. 3/
4. Iran goes nuclear: A bomb test shakes the region. Israel, Saudi Arabia react sharply. The Gulf becomes a powder keg.

5. The dollar under fire: BRICS nations push hard to ditch the dollar. Global trade fractures. U.S. influence erodes. 4/
6. Tech collapse: Overhyped stocks crash. Big layoffs hit Silicon Valley. Innovation slows, investors pull back.

7. Oil shocks: Instability in the Gulf spikes oil prices. Energy markets reel. Inflation returns with a vengeance. 5/
8. U.S. debt crisis: Partisan standoffs over spending. Shutdowns hit. Markets lose faith in U.S. financial stability.

9. Israel unrest: Far-right policies spark backlash. Protests turn violent. Political stability crumbles. 6/
10. Climate chaos: Droughts devastate crops. Superstorms hit cities. Global food prices skyrocket. Political tensions grow.

11. Space attacks: Satellites are hacked or destroyed. GPS, internet, and comms disrupted. Modern life grinds to a halt. 7/
12. European migration crisis: Refugees from conflict and climate strain EU borders. Political infighting paralyzes response.

13. Health system collapse: A new pandemic or systemic burnout overwhelms hospitals. Governments struggle to cope. 8/
2025 is a powder keg. Any one of these could ignite. What’s your biggest worry for 2025? 9X

Source:

politico.com/news/magazine/…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jan 7
“Why are you not convinced by trillions of dollars? What has happened to your business instinct? Are you stupid? And that’s what I say to pension funds as well. Are you stupid?” said Bauer

FT: Bauer calls on banks etc to change outdated policies in face of rising threats 1/ Image
The problem is larger than it seems. As Bauer notes, regional wars are the reality of the near future. Yet, anyone supporting defense - whether through investment, consumption, or other means - risks triggering compliance flags, account closures, or being denied services 2/
I can’t personally invest in defense startups because my lawyers warn it would trigger extended checks at financial institutions and border crossings, create legal risks and compliance burdens, and jeopardize donations to KSE’s 501(c)(3), where I serve as president 3/
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jan 6
Zelensky told Fridman that Ukraine is ready to spend $300B of frozen Russian assets on U.S. weapons, has Europe’s best anti-corruption system, and proves Western security promises are worthless. 1/
1. On corruption: Ukraine’s anti-corruption system is the most advanced in the EU. Nearly all reforms are complete, and anti-corruption bodies now operate independently.

Claiming there’s no corruption would be dishonest, but we address it openly and fight it genuinely. 2/
2. On oligarchs: Kolomoyskyi, Ukraine’s most influential oligarch since independence, is now in Ukrainian prison - something the US and EU couldn’t achieve despite seeking him for money laundering. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jan 1
A sweet, perhaps, bittersweet piece from The Guardian on Ukrainians replanting war-burned forests 10 miles away from the frontlines 1/ Image
G: Yuriy Bengus leads volunteers planting English oaks in Kharkiv's war-damaged Zhuravli forest, despite active combat 12 miles away 2/
Volunteers planted 40,000 acorns. Project received widespread community support, including 50kg acorn collection by local school 3/
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jan 1
Neutral Ukraine is a delusion of those who don’t understand history.

Over the last 350 years, Russia fought Ukraine in 24 wars (h/t Victor Yushchenko)

For centuries, Ukrainians have fought and died for freedom from Russia. Neutrality cannot be forced on Ukraine 1/
I remember the 2013 peace agreement between then pro Russian president Yanukovych protestors, who fought against his pivot to Russia

It was brokered by three European foreign ministers was structurally sound and detailed, including provisions for early elections and observers 2/
However, it collapsed within 24 hours. Protest leaders presented the agreement as a solution to end the bloodshed, yet it was rejected outright by the protesters 3/
Read 10 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 31, 2024
FT: Russia trained officers for attacks on Japan and South Korea

I don’t know, but Russia is the biggest force that pulls the world backwards - towards global wars and away from human technological development and prosperity 1/ Image
Details from FT: Leaked military files show detailed plans for strikes on civilian infrastructure in event of war 2/
Russia has plans targeting 160 sites in Japan and South Korea, including nuclear plants and civilian infrastructure. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 29, 2024
Everyone's fixated on securing peace in Ukraine now, but that's the wrong frame. The issue isn't about a peace deal; it's about achieving stability so that:

1. The conflict doesn't escalate or renew.
2. Ukraine can sustain itself.
3. Russia becomes less aggressive globally 1/
Also, everyone talks territorial concessions. Is Ukraine willing? Is Russia willing? But this is a wrong frame too.

Clearly, No one's going to fight for Crimea or Donets because the cost in lives is too high if not suicidal 2/
And Ukraine won't abandon places that are not occupied by Russia: Kherson, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, because people live there. If Russia wants more, they'd need to take it by force. But that's exactly what a deal must prevent. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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