Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 7 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
In case anyone missed the obvious, Russian losses in 2024 were greater than 2022 and 2023 combined.

It is worth noting that the Russian loss of ~429,660 personnel in 2024 is similar to British losses in the WW1 Somme campaign.

RuAF casualty ratio🧵
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There is one very important difference between the Somme and the 2022 to date Russo-Ukrainian War.

The WW1 British lost ~1 KIA for every 4-5 WIA in the Somme.

Most of the UK missing and 1 in 10 of the wounded were either dead, or died of wound infections, respectively.

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While Russia's loss ratio in Ukraine & Kursk Oblast is of the order of 1:1-1.5 between KIA and WIA due to failed or non-existent field medicine or medevac (specifically 15,000 KIA out of 38,000 casualties in Kursk for a ratio of 1:1.5 KIA:WIA).

3/
Russia simply leaves its dead and its wounded (dying of blood loss) behind, and has done so for years.

There have been a lot of Ukrainian drone and Russian Gopro camera videos emerged in recent weeks showing former farm pigs consuming the abandoned remains of Russian troops.
4/
The most d--ning video in that regard shows a herd of wild pigs converging on a Ukrainian FPV drone loitering in 'ground ambush mode' for a passing Russian vehicle.


5/
That herd of wild pigs had learned the sound of Ukrainian FPV drones means there are abandoned bodies of Russian troops to eat - which proves that the Russian practice of abandoning their wounded and dead has been persistent for years.

6/
That Russian 1 KIA to 1.5 WIA casualty ratio mapped unto 800,000 works out to the following:

RuAF KIA - 266,667
RuAF WIA - 533,333
1/10 Died of wounds - 53,333
RuAF Missing - 50,000**

**Russian MoD figure.

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Russian non-combat deaths are in addition to the 320,000 KIA plus 1/10 died of wounds.

However, many of the "missing" are likely Russian soldiers who had 'non-combat deaths' like freezing to death or 'dying by misadventure' due to alcohol.

8/
Given Ukrainian pig behavior videos we are seeing. I expect 4/5ths of the 50,000 missing in Russian MoD requests to Ukraine are deaths.

IOW, Russia has taken _at_least_ 360,000 deaths from all causes since Feb 2022.

9/9 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Jan 9
The economic barriers to entry for drone airpower have fallen so far as to make current Western expeditionary warfare model insertions by paradrop, heliborne landing and by naval landing craft obsolescent.

A wilful ignorance🧵
1/
This is denied by the "usual suspects" for the historical, US Army Horse Cavalry branch protecting its bureaucratic empire from the reality of the 1939 Nazi blitzkrieg of Poland, after France fell in 1940, reasons.

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When new threats emerge US Defense Dept. & Senior Service bureaucrats go to extraordinary lengths to ignore them, and actively suppress the voices of those pointing out what they want ignored.

The colloquial term "wilful ignorance" describes this bad behavior to a 'tee.'

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Read 7 tweets
Jan 6
The thing about being a retired DoD Quality Staffer is I'm not afraid of asking 3rd parties, or AI's like Grok, about my work product.

I've done several threads that are reflected in Grok's impressions of my Xeets on military boat-drones.

Boat-Drones in Naval Warfare🧵
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This is what I said almost a year ago, back in February 2024, about how the ship name "Ivanovets" will join "Prince of Wales" and "Repulse" marking the day the world changed for Naval power.

2/
I made the specific point then that Iran was already deploying drone loitering munitions on its uncrewed boat-drones.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Jan 2
This is an interesting, and double false, claim by the Russian Fighter bomber channel about boat-drones:

"Due to its speed and maneuverability, it is almost impossible to hit a BEK with a drone, as well as with emergency drops."

1/
@sambendett has posted videos about the Russians successfully destroying Ukrainian boat-drones with FPV drones back in May 2024.

2/
Back in July 2024 the Russians had 250 km/h drones bodies for FPV work which has the power to weight performance to blast through a helicopter downwash.

3/

Read 5 tweets
Jan 2
This is another useful translation thread by @sambendett dealing with the Russian reaction to the downing of two Russian helicopters by boat-drone launched R-73 (NATO reporting name AA-11 Archer) missiles.

Boat-drones vs helicopters🧵
1/
I've tried with an earlier thread to give this engagement both historical context and possible implications for Western naval helicopter operations in littoral waters going forward

2/
What is more interesting about this Russian translation thread is Russian helicopters have deployed FPV's for boat-drone hunting in September 2024.

Apparently, these Russian helicopter FPV's were either daylight only or unavailable for that engagement.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Jan 2
I've gotten some interesting claims of "Cope" from the pro-russian troll accounts on X.

Oh no, Russian VKS backwardness neither begins no ends with a lack of pallets.

Let's talk about the manually hand pumped VKS bomb lifts like the one this Mobik is using⬇️

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A long line of VKS bombs are shown here from the same TV clip with orange and green painted, hand pumped, lift trailers.

The big handles on each are how you lift and lower the bombs.

Can you imagine how many handle strokes it required to raise a 500 kg or 1,000kg bomb?

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When I was test track driving a FMTV truck. It took between 120 and 150 hand strokes to pop over an unarmored cab.

The later heavier armored cabs took about another 50 more.

Testing the manual hand pump was in the test procedure.🤷‍♂️

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Read 10 tweets
Dec 31, 2024
Ukraine's use of boat-drones to shoot down a Russian crewed helicopter with a R-73 missile is as historically significant as Israeli destroyer Eilat (ex HMS Zealous) with a Styx missile by Egypt. Image
The era of the armed naval helicopter hunting submarines, small boats and spotting/screening for naval surface warships may be coming to a close.

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Small boat-drones as platforms for 20 km(+) range fiber optic guided FPV drones will become huge threat to merchant traffic in the littorals and will bedevil escorting warships denied low altitude helicopter cover.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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