Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy on Ukraine and Russia: Johnson and Truman tried to buy Greenland, the Chinese control the Panama Canal, and Trump will be fair to Ukraine, no pushover for Putin. Still, it might take 100 days, not 24 hours 1/
Keith Kellogg: People need to understand Trump is not trying to give something to Putin or the Russians, he's actually trying to save Ukraine's sovereignty and guarantee it. And he will guarantee that it is fair and honest. 2/
He said his goal is to try to find a solution to end the war within the first 100 days after Trump inauguration.
Trump and he realize that they have “little time” to find a solution. 3/
Biden biggest mistake: he's never engaged in any conversations with Putin. We're going to set the conditions, and then he'll be talking to Putin and Zelensky. 4/
Kellogg on Panama and Greenland:
We seized the Panama Canal in the late 80s and gave it back three weeks later. Now it's run by the Chinese, but 70% of the trade that goes through the canal is American.
Johnson and Truman already tried to buy Greenland, so it’s a not new idea. 5X
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Today Trump spoke about tariffs on Mexico to stop drugs, Greenland’s 45,000 people wanting to join the U.S., how he defeated ISIS, Ukraine being the EU’s problem, taking Canada by economic force, and using the military to take the Panama Canal from China.
His best quotes: 1/
On US hostages in Israel: If those hostages aren't back - I don't want to hurt your negotiation - if they're not back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East. And it will not be good for Hamas. 2/
On Mexico: Something's going to have to be done. Same thing with Mexico. We have a massive deficit with Mexico, and we help Mexico a lot. They're essentially run by the cartels, and we can't let that happen. 3/
“Why are you not convinced by trillions of dollars? What has happened to your business instinct? Are you stupid? And that’s what I say to pension funds as well. Are you stupid?” said Bauer
FT: Bauer calls on banks etc to change outdated policies in face of rising threats 1/
The problem is larger than it seems. As Bauer notes, regional wars are the reality of the near future. Yet, anyone supporting defense - whether through investment, consumption, or other means - risks triggering compliance flags, account closures, or being denied services 2/
I can’t personally invest in defense startups because my lawyers warn it would trigger extended checks at financial institutions and border crossings, create legal risks and compliance burdens, and jeopardize donations to KSE’s 501(c)(3), where I serve as president 3/
A must read: Politico’s list of 2025 black swans: Russia or Ukraine collapse, China-Taiwan clash, AI backlash, nuclear Iran, US debt crisis, space attacks, health system crisis. 1/
1. On Russia-Ukraine: the war might freeze but won’t end; Putin would start losing power in Russia.
I would add: a spectacular collapse of either Russia or Ukraine, a use of nukes, or other powerful new weapons by either side, mass migration. 2/
2. China-Taiwan clash: Beijing ramps up military drills near Taiwan. Markets dive. Global supply chains shatter. Tensions ripple across Asia.
3. AI backlash: Strikes over job losses. Disinfo explodes. Rogue AI systems cause real-world harm. Governments scramble to catch up. 3/
Zelensky told Fridman that Ukraine is ready to spend $300B of frozen Russian assets on U.S. weapons, has Europe’s best anti-corruption system, and proves Western security promises are worthless. 1/
1. On corruption: Ukraine’s anti-corruption system is the most advanced in the EU. Nearly all reforms are complete, and anti-corruption bodies now operate independently.
Claiming there’s no corruption would be dishonest, but we address it openly and fight it genuinely. 2/
2. On oligarchs: Kolomoyskyi, Ukraine’s most influential oligarch since independence, is now in Ukrainian prison - something the US and EU couldn’t achieve despite seeking him for money laundering. 3/
Neutral Ukraine is a delusion of those who don’t understand history.
Over the last 350 years, Russia fought Ukraine in 24 wars (h/t Victor Yushchenko)
For centuries, Ukrainians have fought and died for freedom from Russia. Neutrality cannot be forced on Ukraine 1/
I remember the 2013 peace agreement between then pro Russian president Yanukovych protestors, who fought against his pivot to Russia
It was brokered by three European foreign ministers was structurally sound and detailed, including provisions for early elections and observers 2/
However, it collapsed within 24 hours. Protest leaders presented the agreement as a solution to end the bloodshed, yet it was rejected outright by the protesters 3/