M. V. Cunha Profile picture
Jan 10 20 tweets 21 min read Read on X
I haven’t been this excited about a stock in a long time.

$NBIS is the most undervalued AI infrastructure company in the entire market, and I believe it will soon be recognized.

Here’s a detailed thread explaining the investment thesis: 🧵👇🏻 Image
1. The AI revolution is upon us, reshaping industries at an extraordinary pace. As businesses embrace AI-driven solutions, the infrastructure required to sustain this transformation is emerging as a pivotal challenge.

Positioned at the forefront of the AI infrastructure market, $NBIS aims to address one of the most pressing bottlenecks in the industry.

The demand for AI infrastructure is not merely growing — it’s skyrocketing. The shift to AI requires a new generation of data centers and compute solutions, purpose-built to meet the unique demands of these technologies. $NBIS is rising to this challenge, crafting advanced infrastructure designed from the ground up to optimize AI performance.

With a vision to scale operations to hundreds of megawatts of AI compute capacity, $NBIS seeks to empower the global AI ecosystem by delivering innovative, high-performance solutions tailored for the future.Image
2. Origins: From Yandex to Nebius Group

$NBIS's story begins within Yandex, a company often referred to as the “Russian Google” due to its dominance in search, advertising, and digital services in Russia and other former Soviet countries. However, the trajectory that led to $NBIS becoming an independent entity is rooted in one of the most turbulent periods in recent history.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, Yandex faced severe geopolitical and financial repercussions. Trading of its shares was suspended, its founder was sanctioned, and its operations became entangled in regulatory pressures from both Western and Russian authorities.

By mid-2024, after a complex restructuring process, Yandex completed the divestiture of its Russia-based assets. Following this restructuring, $NBIS emerged as a standalone entity, fully independent and with no ties to its former parent’s Russian operations. I want to make this clear: there is absolutely no connection between Nebius and Russia. Its managers and board members changed their nationalities to either Dutch or Israeli – otherwise, they would not have been able to avoid the sanctions.

While $NBIS inherits its engineering expertise and assets — such as its AI cloud platform and Finnish data center — from Yandex, the company is charting an entirely new course. Its focus is on becoming a leading provider of AI infrastructure in Europe and beyond. $NBIS now operates with a seasoned team of engineers and researchers, many of whom were instrumental in Yandex’s success, particularly in building data centers, cloud architecture, and advanced AI tools.

As $NBIS scales its operations, it is transforming from a collection of legacy assets into a formidable AI platform. The company aims to deliver a full-stack AI solution encompassing everything from compute infrastructure to deployment and monitoring, with ambitions of establishing itself as a global leader in AI cloud services.Image
3. What is Nebius, and What Services Does It Offer?

At its core, $NBIS is a next-generation AI infrastructure company specializing in "compute-as-a-service". The company’s offerings are designed to address the growing demand for high-performance AI infrastructure by providing a comprehensive suite of solutions for developers, enterprises, and researchers.

$NBIS operates across three primary layers: infrastructure, platform, and applications, creating a seamless ecosystem tailored for intensive AI workloads.

1) AI-Centric Cloud Platform

$NBIS has developed an advanced cloud platform purpose-built for AI and ML workloads. It combines cutting-edge GPU clusters with scalable storage and managed services, providing the compute, storage, and tools required to develop AI models.

• Optimized for AI Workloads: The platform supports training, inference, and fine-tuning of AI models with state-of-the-art GPUs, including NVIDIA H100s and upcoming H200s.

• Flexibility: Customers can scale resources up or down on demand, catering to both small experiments and large-scale deployments.

• Reliability: Leveraging $NBIS' proprietary cloud software and in-house server design ensures low latency and minimal downtime.

2) Comprehensive AI Infrastructure

$NBIS doesn’t just offer raw computing power, it provides a fully integrated environment:

• Data Centers: Improves unit economics through increased energy efficiency and lower data center cost, while enabling scalability.

• In-House Server Design: The company designs its servers outside of NVIDIA GPUs, allowing for enhanced performance, faster deployments, and significant cost savings.

• Full Stack Control: From server manufacturing to cloud deployment, $NBIS controls the entire value chain, resulting in superior optimization and efficiency.

• Managed Services: Tools like Apache Spark and MLflow simplify operations, enabling users to focus on innovation instead of infrastructure management.

3) AI Studio

The Nebius AI Studio is a SaaS platform that integrates APIs for open-source models, simplifying AI development for businesses and researchers.

• User-Friendly Interface: Pre-configured environments reduce setup time and maximize productivity.

• Cost Efficiency: Offers some of the lowest price-per-token costs for inference in the market.

$NBIS is more than just a GPU provider, it’s a full-stack solution tailored for the AI industry. By bridging infrastructure, platform, and applications, the company empowers organizations to unlock the potential of AI while staying agile in a rapidly evolving technological landscape.Image
4. Summarizing What Sets Nebius Apart

For those less familiar with the technical details of AI infrastructure, here’s a clear picture of what makes $NBIS stand out:

$NBIS is recognized as one of the most efficient and energy-conscious AI infrastructure companies globally, striking a balance between top-tier performance and sustainability. Its commitment to cost-effectiveness and operational excellence gives it a competitive edge in the rapidly growing AI market.

Industry-Leading Cost Efficiency

$NBIS delivers high-performance AI infrastructure at a significantly lower cost:

• 20–25% Lower Costs: Total GPU ownership and operational expenses are up to 25% lower compared to the average GPU provider.

• Integrated Value Chain: Full control over the AI infrastructure lifecycle — from in-house server design to proprietary cloud platforms — allows $NBIS to optimize costs and productivity while ensuring minimal downtime.

• Strategic Partnerships: Long-term relationships with leading server manufacturers (ODMs) help co-design and manufacture cost-efficient, AI-specific hardware.

Energy Efficiency and Sustainability

$NBIS prioritizes environmental sustainability without compromising on performance:

• Best-in-Class Data Centers: Achieving a Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of ~1.13, placing it among industry leaders like Google and Microsoft.

• Supercomputing Excellence: $NBIS operates one of the top 5% most energy-efficient supercomputers globally, reflecting its advanced engineering.

World-Class Team and Expertise

$NBIS is powered by a cohesive and highly skilled team:

• Proven Track Record: ~400 AI/ML/cloud engineers and ~850 technology professionals bring an average of 10+ years of experience in fields like AI, ML, LLMs, and cloud infrastructure.

• Future-Ready Workforce: The team is strategically sized and equipped to support the company’s growth trajectory, ensuring sustained innovation and execution at scale.

This combination of performance, cost-efficiency, and energy-conscious design positions $NBIS as a standout player in the competitive AI infrastructure landscape.Image
5. How Are Nebius' Data Centers So Efficient?

$NBIS' data centers can achieve optimized cooling and heat recovery to enhance both cost-effectiveness and environmental sustainability.

Optimized Cooling

$NBIS' Finland-based data center employs free cooling, eliminating the need for traditional chillers, water, and refrigerants. This approach not only reduces costs but also minimizes the environmental footprint.

• Higher Operating Temperatures: The data center operates at a maximum temperature of approximately 40°C, which is about 10°C higher than the typical limit set by standard hardware. This higher threshold eliminates the need for inlet air subcooling and enables slower, less energy-intensive airflows compared to conventional designs.

• Broader Workload Range: The center functions effectively under 100% workload within a temperature range of 18°C to 40°C, in contrast to most data centers that aim to stay below 27°C due to server architecture constraints. This capability eliminates the energy demands of subcooling, significantly improving energy efficiency.

• Energy Savings: By operating without subcooling requirements, the data center achieves substantial energy savings, aligning with $NBIS' focus on cost efficiency and sustainability.

Heat Recovery

In addition to optimized cooling, $NBIS has implemented an advanced heat recovery system that repurposes waste heat for municipal heating, creating additional value for the surrounding community.

• Regional Innovation: The Finland data center is a pioneer in the region, using server-generated heat to meet local heating needs.

• Energy Reuse: Between 2020 and 2023, the center reused over 80,000 MWh of server heat for municipal heating, equivalent to the energy consumed by around 2,500 Finnish households for heating over four years.

• Meeting Heating Needs: More than 50% of the annual heating requirements of the nearby town were covered by this heat recovery system.

• Cost Savings for Households: The system contributed to household heating cost reductions of up to 12%, accounting for approximately 30% of the data center’s electricity costs.

$NBIS' approach to data center design showcases its ability to balance operational efficiency with environmental responsibility. The company’s plan to replicate these best practices as it expands its data center capacity positions it as a leader in sustainable technology infrastructure. These initiatives not only generate cost savings but also create long-term value for both $NBIS and the communities it serves.

Besides this, the company designs, develops, and produces its own servers, providing several key differentiating factors that result in greater efficiency and cost savings.Image
6. Strategic Partnership with NVIDIA: A Game-Changer for Nebius

$NBIS' long-standing collaboration with NVIDIA is a cornerstone of its growth and competitive advantage in the AI infrastructure market. This partnership not only provides access to the most advanced GPU technology but also underscores NVIDIA’s confidence in $NBIS' potential, as evidenced by its direct investment in the company.

$NBIS is at the forefront of integrating NVIDIA’s state-of-the-art hardware into its AI infrastructure:

• Blackwell GPUs: Nebius will be the first European provider to offer NVIDIA’s energy-efficient Blackwell platform in 2025, ensuring its customers have access to industry-leading compute performance.

• AI-Native Cloud Platform: Built from scratch with NVIDIA’s accelerated computing platform, $NBIS' cloud environment is purpose-designed to handle intensive and distributed AI workloads with hyperscaler-level reliability.

This alignment ensures that $NBIS customers benefit from the latest advancements in GPU technology, positioning them to innovate and scale efficiently.

The company is also leveraging NVIDIA technology to expand its global footprint:

• The company’s Kansas City GPU cluster — set to launch in Q1 2025 — will house thousands of NVIDIA Hopper GPUs, with plans to incorporate Blackwell GPUs as they become available.

• With potential capacity for 35,000 GPUs, this cluster marks a pivotal step in $NBIS' U.S. expansion, bringing low-latency, high-performance AI infrastructure closer to American customers.

NVIDIA’s Investment: A Vote of Confidence

NVIDIA’s financial backing further validates $NBIS' potential as a leader in the AI infrastructure space. This partnership not only accelerates the company's expansion plans but also reinforces its ability to secure cutting-edge GPUs, ensuring it stays ahead in a highly competitive market.

By combining $NBIS' AI infrastructure expertise with NVIDIA’s hardware and cloud capabilities, the two companies are creating a powerful synergy that positions $NBIS as a global leader in delivering high-performance, energy-efficient AI solutions.Image
7. Data Centers and Future Investment Plans

$NBIS is investing heavily in its infrastructure to meet the surging demand for AI compute power.

$1B Investment in European AI Infrastructure

$NBIS has committed to investing over $1B by mid-2025 to expand its data center capacity across Europe. This ambitious program includes:

• Expanding Existing Facilities: The flagship data center in Mäntsälä, Finland, will see its capacity tripled to 75 MW, supporting up to 60,000 GPUs. At full capacity, this site alone has an estimated annual revenue potential exceeding $1B.

• Greenfield Sites: $NBIS is planning new, custom-built GPU clusters at greenfield locations, further strengthening its presence in Europe.

• Colocation Facilities: Strategic deployment of additional capacity through partnerships with colocations, including the newly announced GPU cluster in Paris.

The Paris GPU cluster, scheduled for launch in late 2025, will be among the first in Europe to offer NVIDIA’s H200 Tensor Core GPUs. This facility, along with the Finnish data center, will also feature the energy-efficient NVIDIA Blackwell platform, reinforcing $NBIS' technological leadership.

$NBIS' total power capacity is expected to grow dramatically:

• From ~30 MW in 2024 to 60–100 MW by 2025.

• Medium-term plans (2027-2028) target 240+ MW, supporting GPU capacity of up to 240,000 units. 🤯

This aggressive build-out of data centers aligns with the company's vision of becoming a leading global provider of AI infrastructure.Image
8. All in all, $NBIS stands out as a leading AI infrastructure provider by offering tailored solutions specifically designed for AI developers and businesses.

With full control over the value chain, efficient GPU operations, and expertise in managing data centers, $NBIS delivers cost-effective and highly reliable services. Its strong partnerships, particularly with NVIDIA, and a top-tier engineering team further solidify its position.

Unlike competitors, $NBIS combines flexibility, scalability, and customer-focused support, making it a versatile and innovative player in the AI infrastructure landscape.Image
9. Market Opportunity: A Large And Rapidly Expanding TAM

The total addressable market for AI infrastructure is witnessing explosive growth, and $NBIS is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend. According to its internal estimates:

• The TAM is projected to grow from $33B in 2023 to over $260B by 2030, representing a CAGR of 35%. This exponential growth is fueled by the increasing adoption of AI across industries and the rising demand for compute-intensive solutions tailored to AI workloads.

• A key driver of this demand will be inference workloads, which are expected to constitute 64% of AI server spending by 2027, up from 34% in 2023. As AI applications transition from development (training) to deployment (inference), $NBIS' comprehensive AI infrastructure is uniquely suited to meet these evolving needs.

External factors contributing to this opportunity include the rapid expansion of GPU-as-a-Service and AI cloud markets, which are anticipated to grow eightfold over the next seven years. This creates an immense runway for growth for infrastructure providers like $NBIS.

Internally, $NBIS is leveraging its competitive advantages to capture this market opportunity:

• Client Base Expansion: The company is focused on securing long-term contracts with existing clients while expanding into new customer segments. It also supports existing customers as they scale their AI workloads.

• Value-Added Services: By continually expanding its product range — such as API SaaS for open-source models — $NBIS ensures that it can address diverse customer needs, from developers to enterprises.

As the generative AI market grows, $NBIS is not just keeping pace but actively shaping the ecosystem with its focus on high-performance, cost-efficient, and sustainable AI infrastructure. With its ambitious expansion plans and strong strategic partnerships, the company is primed to capture a significant share of this booming market.Image
10. Now let's take a look at $NBIS' numbers 👇🏻

First, it’s important to note that the company has a super solid balance sheet with over $2B in cash and no debt. This financial strength provides ample runway to support $NBIS' ambitious expansion plans and capitalize on the booming generative AI infrastructure market.

Explosive ARR Growth

The company’s Annual Recurring Revenue experienced phenomenal growth, surging from $21M at the end of 2023 to a projected $170–190M by the end of 2024 (to be reported) — an 8–9x increase within just a year. This explosive growth has been fueled by:

• Client Base Expansion: The number of active clients grew from just 10 to 40+, with robust growth expected to continue as $NBIS penetrates new segments.

• Massive Capacity Expansion: GPU capacity skyrocketed from ~2,000 GPUs to 20,000+ GPUs, enabling the company to handle significantly higher workloads.

• Growing Consumption: Existing clients scaled up their AI workloads, driving repeat business and sustained revenue growth.

2025 Outlook

$NBIS expects to maintain this growth trajectory in 2025, targeting:

• $750M to $1B in ARR by year-end.

• Revenue between $500–700M, with the company achieving adjusted EBITDA profitability.

• $600M to $1.5B in CAPEX, primarily invested in: NVIDIA GB200 GPUs to expand computational capacity and data center expansion, including owned, greenfield, and colocation facilities, to support higher volumes for both existing and new customers.

Medium-Term Vision

Looking beyond 2025, $NBIS aims to drive multibillion-dollar annual revenue, supported by:

• Leveraging GPUaaS and AI Cloud growth: Capturing market share in these rapidly expanding verticals.

• Infrastructure Expansion: Significantly increasing GPU capacity and building more data centers (already discussed in a previous post).

• Client Diversification: Expanding into new customer segments, securing additional long-term contracts, and increasing its market penetration.

• Product Innovation: Introducing more value-added services, such as API SaaS offerings for open-source models, to better meet the needs of a growing and diverse client base.

With a combination of financial stability, aggressive growth strategies, and a market-ready infrastructure, $NBIS is poised to become a dominant player in the AI infrastructure landscape.
11. But $NBIS is more than just its core business, it has three other divisions that further enhance the company's value.

Toloka

Data partner for AI development: Toloka provides human-powered data solutions, enabling businesses and researchers to gather, label, and evaluate large datasets crucial for training and improving AI models.

AVRIDE

Autonomous driving technology: AVRIDE specializes in developing autonomous driving technology for self-driving cars and delivery robots.

tripleten

Edtech player: tripleten is an educational technology company that focuses on reskilling individuals for careers in tech. They offer online courses, training programs, and career guidance to help people acquire the skills needed for in-demand tech roles.

ClickHouse (~28% stake)

Open-source database: ClickHouse is the creator of a popular open-source column-oriented database management system (DBMS). Their database is known for its high performance and efficiency in handling large volumes of data, making it suitable for analytical workloads and data warehousing.

Let's understand a bit more about each of these divisions 👇🏻Image
12. Avride: One of the Pioneers in Autonomous Mobility Solutions

Yandex Self-Driving division was established in 2016, and Avride is essentially the result of almost a decade of developments.

Avride is a cutting-edge player in the autonomous driving sector, focused on both self-driving vehicles and delivery robots. The division stands out for its dual expertise, leveraging shared technologies to advance both passenger and logistics solutions.

Core Capabilities

• Team Expertise: Avride boasts over 200 engineers and developers specializing in self-driving technology, with more than seven years of experience in autonomous systems. Their operations span multiple R&D hubs in the USA, Israel, Serbia, and South Korea.

• Strategic Partnerships: The company collaborates with Uber to enable autonomous delivery and mobility solutions, underlining its role as a commercial leader in the space.

Technology Development

• Self-Driving Vehicles: Avride develops fully autonomous cars for applications such as ride-hailing, logistics, and food delivery. Testing has been conducted in the US, South Korea, and EMEA, culminating in robotaxi deployment within two years of public testing. The fleet has completed 47,000+ passenger rides, covering over 22M autonomous kilometers with zero serious accidents.

• Delivery Robots: Designed for diverse conditions, Avride's delivery robots operate on sidewalks and indoors, achieving speeds of up to 8 km/h with a range of 55 km. These robots have delivered over 200,000 client orders globally, showcasing their reliability in restaurant, grocery, and small-scale logistics.

Key Differentiators

• Efficiency and Safety: Avride achieves remarkable fleet efficiency, logging more kilometers per vehicle than competitors like Waymo and Cruise. Its technology has been tested in extreme conditions, maintaining an outstanding safety record.

• Commercial Viability: With ~$310M invested since inception, Avride operates at a fraction of its competitors’ costs, making it a highly efficient autonomous vehicle provider.

• Production Strength: In-house robot designs and a manufacturing partnership in Taiwan allow Avride to rapidly scale production while optimizing costs.

Growth Trajectory

• 2024: Deployment of 10–20 vehicles for R&D and over 100 delivery robots.

• 2025: Expansion to 100+ autonomous vehicles and 1,000+ robots, with monetization milestones and breakeven on contribution profit.

• 2026+: Unsupervised public launches in multiple cities, targeting double-digit million USD revenues with a fleet size exceeding 200 vehicles and 3,000 robots.

Avride's ability to rapidly deploy and integrate into commercial ecosystems positions it as a leader in autonomous mobility. Its ongoing partnerships, such as with Uber Eats in Austin, highlight its capability to expand operations globally. With an estimated funding need of up to $150M in the mid-term, Avride is set to further solidify its market position and deliver significant value to $NBIS.Image
13. Toloka: Powering Data-Driven AI with Scalable Solutions

Toloka delivers high-quality data and innovative solutions to support the development and scaling of AI technologies.

• Revenue Expansion Across Offerings: Focused on growing revenue across all product lines, while solidifying its presence in a rapidly growing market.

• Customer Growth and Retention: Securing new customers and increasing wallet share with existing clients through Classic and Evolved GenAI solutions.

• Tapping into Growing AI Demand: Capitalizing on the rising need for advanced AI solutions, including non-core GenAI services and a self-serve platform.

• Trusted by Industry Leaders: Toloka AI is relied upon by Big Tech, Fortune-500 companies (such as Microsoft and ServiceNow), and A-class startups. This trust is underpinned by the team's extensive ML expertise and robust research partnerships.

👉🏻 Projected Financial Highlights: 2025E revenue is estimated to be between $50M and $70M.Image
14. TripleTen and ClickHouse

TripleTen is a top-rated EdTech platform in the US, known for its high employment rates, excellent student feedback, and solid graduate outcomes. It offers a flexible, AI-powered e-learning platform that provides accessible pricing for learners and scalable operations for the business. TripleTen is expanding its presence in B2B and B2C markets, particularly in the US and LATAM, opening significant growth opportunities.

Key Differentiators

• Affordable Pricing: TripleTen leverages AI-driven automation and diversified trainer sourcing to optimize training costs, enabling highly competitive pricing.

• Top-Rated in the US: Achieves high employment rates (87% of graduates employed within six months of graduation) and excellent student satisfaction, outperforming industry benchmarks.

• Proprietary Technology: Offers a robust tech stack for seamless course launches and localization with minimal cost overhead.

• Extensive Support: Provides personalized guidance through expert tutors and real-world problem-solving scenarios to maximize student outcomes.

Growth Levers

Market Share Expansion in Existing Regions: Growing its footprint in the US to gain market share and expanding alumni networks to enhance enrollment efficiency and reduce customer acquisition costs (CAC).

• B2C Offering Growth: Launching new programs, including Cyber Analyst and UI/UX Design, to cater to emerging job market demands.

• Geographic Expansion into LATAM: Deep localization to better address local needs and rapid scaling of existing courses to penetrate LATAM markets.

• B2B Product Expansion: Developing corporate bootcamps in English and Spanish, and introducing role-specific assessments for data and development specialists.

Business Model Strength

TripleTen operates a highly efficient cost structure where CAC is fully covered by initial customer payments, ensuring robust financial sustainability.

2025 Financial Expectations: Revenue: $40–$60M.

Regarding ClickHouse, $NBIS owns only a minority interest in the company (~28%), so it doesn't hold the same level of importance.Image
15. Valuation - A bargain with significant upside and minimal downside

Based on its current cash reserves, $NBIS has an EV of ~$5B.

As mentioned, the company expects to generate $500–700M in revenue in 2025 and close the year with $750M–1B in ARR.

Assuming it achieves the high end of guidance (which is highly likely), $NBIS is trading at 7–8x EV/Fwd Revenue. While this is not a cheap multiple in absolute terms, it is relatively attractive compared to similar companies, especially when factoring in its explosive growth of 4–5x YoY in 2025 and likely 100%+ growth in 2026 (with continued rapid expansion over the following years, driven by GPU deployment plans).

If we assume the full deployment of 240k GPUs by 2028, the company could achieve over $4B in ARR by that time.

Applying a 30% normalized EBITDA margin (a reasonable estimate based on comparable companies) and a 15x multiple, would result in at least an $18B valuation — representing a 37% CAGR over three years.

Of course, these estimates may be completely wrong, but there’s a strong likelihood they are achievable.

Importantly, this valuation gives ZERO value to $NBIS' other divisions.

For instance, Waymo was recently valued at $45B. While Avride is not as developed, I think it could easily be worth at least 5% of Waymo’s valuation, or $2.25B. This alone would account for a significant portion of $NBIS' current market cap — essentially being "free" at the current price.

Additionally, Toloka, TripleTen, and the 28% stake in ClickHouse could contribute another $500M–1B to the valuation.

In summary, I strongly believe the market has yet to recognize $NBIS' intrinsic value. At its current price, I see a significant opportunity to achieve over 30% CAGR returns over the next few years, far exceeding the expectations of most investors.
16. Why is it so cheap? 🤔

• Execution Concerns: Investors are wary of the company’s ability to successfully execute its ambitious growth plans. Scaling operations to such explosive levels comes with risks, particularly around managing costs, maintaining quality, and achieving operational efficiency.

• Cash Burn and Financing: The rapid expansion and heavy investment in GPUs and other initiatives require significant capital. Concerns over potential cash burn and the possibility of additional equity financing (which could dilute existing shareholders) weigh on investor sentiment.

• Lack of Analyst Coverage: $NBIS is largely underfollowed, with no meaningful analyst coverage. This means many investors are unaware of the company’s true potential. The lack of visibility contributes to its undervaluation.

• Perceived Risks: Some investors may still associate $NBIS with geopolitical risks, despite the fact that the company no longer has any exposure to Russia. This misconception has likely kept some investors on the sidelines.

• Competitive Landscape: Operating in fields dominated by strong players, such as AI and autonomous systems, probably raises doubts about $NBIS' competitive advantages and ability to succeed against established giants. While the company has demonstrated impressive progress, skepticism about its differentiation and scalability remains a hurdle.

These concerns create a unique opportunity for investors who recognize the company's potential and understand that many of these risks are either overstated or manageable. As $NBIS continues to execute its plans and improve its visibility in the market, these factors should fade, leading to a re-rating of the stock.
17. Insiders' Alignment

The Founder and CEO of $NBIS, Arkady Volozh, brings an exceptional track record and strong alignment of interests with shareholders. Volozh previously founded and led Yandex, growing it into one of Europe’s largest tech companies, with a valuation exceeding $30B at its peak. His vision and leadership were instrumental in building Yandex’s dominance in search, AI, and other technology sectors.

He holds ~15% of $NBIS, representing around 90% of his personal net worth. This deep financial commitment ensures his incentives are fully aligned with those of other shareholders. With ~60% voting power, Volozh retains the ability to steer the company decisively, ensuring that long-term growth takes precedence over short-term market pressures.

Now a dual citizen of the Netherlands and Israel, Arkady has distanced himself from Russia and its geopolitical risks. He has been openly critical of Vladimir Putin, condemning his "barbaric" actions, which underscores his commitment to ethical leadership and operating in global markets.

Arkady's track record of scaling Yandex into a tech powerhouse and his substantial personal investment in $NBIS suggest that he is highly motivated to replicate his past success. His leadership and alignment with shareholders provide a solid foundation for $NBIS to achieve its ambitious growth plans.Image
18. Conclusion

All in all, I firmly believe that $NBIS represents a compelling opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the AI infrastructure market without the inflated valuations seen in many of its peers. The company possesses the critical ingredients for success: cutting-edge technology, a world-class team, and a strategic position in a rapidly expanding market.

With its proven track record of innovation and execution, I am confident that $NBIS has the potential to not only replicate but exceed Yandex’s past achievements in the Western world.

As $NBIS garners greater recognition from institutional investors and the broader market, its valuation is likely to reflect its intrinsic value. I anticipate 2025 will be a breakout year for shareholder returns, as the company’s growth trajectory and untapped potential become increasingly apparent.
19. That's it! 🫡

I currently don’t hold a position in $NBIS, but I plan to initiate one very soon.

While I typically avoid these types of companies, $NBIS stands out as a clear leader in the AI infrastructure market.

IMO it’s a rare opportunity that’s hard to overlook.

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More from @mvcinvesting

Feb 17
Until last week, my portfolio consisted only of founder-led stocks, but I finally made an exception by opening a position in $DLO.

Here’s a thread breaking down my investment thesis and why I believe its CEO deserves my trust: 👇🏻🧵 Image
1. Origins

$DLO was founded as a response to a pressing issue in Latin America: the difficulty of making online payments. The company’s origins trace back to Uruguay, where Sebastián Kanovich, one of the key founders, first encountered the problem firsthand. As a young economist with no prior background in technology, Sebastián stumbled into the fintech world by chance when he realized that making international online purchases was nearly impossible for consumers in his home country. His personal frustration — specifically, being unable to buy an NBA League Pass or shop online without borrowing a credit card — led him to recognize a larger systemic issue.

He joined forces with two partners who had already begun assembling an initial team to address these payment challenges. At the time, he was working at Santander Bank but was drawn to the opportunity to build something innovative. The founding team’s first venture into payments was a small-scale operation, focusing on a single solution for one customer. They initially operated with a kiosk model, solving local payment issues in Uruguay before expanding their scope.

The company’s first major breakthrough came with Brazil’s Boleto system, a widely used cash-based payment method. Traditionally, Brazilian consumers would generate a Boleto — a type of payment slip — and physically pay it at a bank or kiosk. $DLO developed a solution that digitized this process, allowing users to issue Boletos at checkout and complete transactions seamlessly. While the team initially believed they had solved a major problem, they soon realized that payment challenges extended far beyond Brazil and involved a wide array of localized payment methods across Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

$DLO's growth trajectory accelerated as global companies began seeking ways to expand into emerging markets. Initially, large U.S. firms like Facebook and Google were hesitant to invest in Latin American payment solutions, focusing instead on European expansion. However, as emerging markets gained importance in global business strategies, interest in $DLO's services grew. The company transitioned from offering just a single payment method to aggregating over 900 different payment solutions across various regions, all accessible through a single API. This comprehensive approach significantly increased $DLO's value proposition.

A pivotal moment came when GoDaddy became $DLO's first major U.S. client. Initially, $DLO attempted a direct-to-consumer (B2C) model, launching a prepaid card under its own brand. However, GoDaddy’s feedback was clear: customers didn’t care about the brand, they cared about seamless payment solutions. This insight pushed $DLO to pivot towards a B2B model, positioning itself as an infrastructure provider rather than a consumer-facing brand. This shift proved to be a game-changer, enabling the company to secure more enterprise clients and scale its operations globally.Image
2. Current Operations

$DLO's mission is to enable global merchants to connect seamlessly with billions of emerging market users.

The company provides payment solutions for some of the world’s largest enterprises, including Amazon, Uber, Microsoft, Shopify, Google, Spotify, Tencent, Shein, Salesforce, Nike, Booking, and Shopee, among others. By simplifying the complex payment landscapes of emerging markets, $DLO helps businesses expand into high-growth regions without the typical friction associated with cross-border transactions.

How Dlocal Makes Money

$DLO operates a high-margin, scalable business model built around direct integrations with global merchants. Once onboarded, companies can access $DLO's full suite of payment solutions through a single API and contract, eliminating the need for multiple legacy providers. This direct connection serves as both a competitive advantage and a barrier to entry, making incremental transaction volume highly accretive (I'll address these topics later).

The company generates revenue primarily through transaction fees on pay-in (consumer payments) and pay-out (merchant disbursements) services. These fees can be a percentage of the transaction value, a fixed fee per transaction, or a spread on foreign exchange conversions. $DLO also charges for services like chargeback management and installment payments, which further contribute to its revenue stream.

Revenue Breakdown:

• Processing fees – Charged as a percentage of transaction value or a fixed fee per approved transaction.
• Installment fees – Fees applied to transactions where consumers opt for installment payments.
• Foreign exchange fees – A spread on currency conversions in cross-border transactions.
• Other transactional fees – Includes chargeback and refund fees, as well as ancillary services.
•Other revenues – Setup fees, maintenance fees, and other small service charges.

Cost Structure

$DLO's cost of services primarily consists of fees paid to financial institutions, such as banks and local acquirers, for processing payments. These costs vary depending on settlement periods and payment methods. Additional expenses include infrastructure costs, salaries of operational staff, and amortization of internally developed software.

One of the key risks in $DLO's model is foreign exchange exposure, as transactions often involve multiple currencies. However, the company mitigates this risk through hedging strategies, using derivatives to offset currency fluctuations.

Apart from COGS, $DLO's main costs fall into two categories:

• Technology & Development: This includes salaries and wages for tech teams, infrastructure costs, information security expenses, software licenses, and other technology-related investments.

• SG&A: These are the regular operating expenses required to run the business.

Since the arrival of the new CEO, $DLO has increased spending on technology infrastructure and back-end capabilities to enhance its solutions and maintain its position as an innovator with a long-term mindset. While these investments initially pressured margins, they are strategically important for long-term value creation — I’ll revisit this when discussing the company’s future margin recovery.

Overall, $DLO's business model is highly scalable, with minimal incremental costs, positioning it to unlock significant operating leverage as it continues its impressive growth trajectory.

Key Performance Indicator: TPV Growth

Total Payment Volume (TPV) is probably the most important metric to gauge $DLO's relevance and execution over the past few years.

From 2016 to 2023, the company grew from just $136M in TPV to $17.7B — a CAGR of over 100%. 🤯

In 2024, growth is expected to exceed 40%, highlighting $DLO's continued expansion in emerging markets and its ability to attract major global enterprises seeking seamless payment solutions.

With a massive untapped market ahead, the company still has significant room to scale.Image
Read 14 tweets
Feb 6
Founder-led companies have historically outperformed the market by a wide margin — but choosing wisely is crucial.

Here are 10 interesting companies where the founder remains both the CEO and the largest shareholder: 👇🏻🧵

1) $NBIS

• Emerging leader in AI infrastructure, providing a full-stack AI cloud platform, high-performance computing, and advanced data center solutions
• Its story begins within Yandex, but it’s now fully independent, with no ties to Russia — founder and executives relocated and changed nationalities to avoid sanctions
• Positioned to benefit from the skyrocketing demand for AI computing power, offering cost-effective and energy-efficient solutions
• Strong competitive edge in cost efficiency, with total GPU costs up to 25% lower than industry averages due to vertical integration and strategic partnerships
• Industry-leading energy efficiency, with best-in-class Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of ~1.13
• Strategic partnership with NVIDIA, which recently invested in $NBIS — will be the first provider in Europe to offer NVIDIA’s new Blackwell GPUs in 2025
• Expanding aggressively, with plans to triple its Finland data center capacity and launch new facilities across Europe and the U.S., targeting 240,000 GPUs by 2027+
• Surging Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), growing from $21M in 2023 to an estimated $170M–$190M in 2024, with projections of $750M–$1B ARR by 2025
• Strong balance sheet with over $2B in cash and no debt, but likely to raise more capital to accelerate expansion
• Several non-core divisions, including Avride (autonomous driving tech with Uber partnerships), Toloka (AI data solutions), and TripleTen (edtech), adding optionality and potential future value
• Trading at an attractive valuation compared to peers, with 7–8x forward EV/ARR despite expected 4–5x YoY growth in 2025 and 100%+ growth in 2026
• Potential for over 30% CAGR over the next few years IMO, with significant upside as institutional investors recognize its growth potentialImage
2) $HIMS

• Cash-pay model that bypasses the need for insurance
• Provides high-quality, personalized, and affordable healthcare treatments (involved in the whole process)
• Positioned to benefit from many secular trends in the huge telehealth market
• Optionality to launch new categories and easily expand into new markets (several potential catalysts)
• Customer-centric approach that delivers a better experience than its peers
• Innovation stack combined with remarkable execution positions it for continued success
• Many years of customer data make some of its competitive advantages harder to replicate, particularly the personalization of dosages to improve outcomes and reduce side effects
• 2M+ subscribers growing 40%+ YoY
• Percentage of personalized subscribers increasing at an incredibly fast rate
• Improving retention rates, a critical factor in this sector
• Highly efficient distribution network, with thousands of affiliated pharmacies
• Investing in infrastructure to verticalize its supply chain
• Capex-light business model with impressive margins (75%+ gross margins, 15%+ FCF)
• Consistently surpassed analysts' estimates since inception
• Growing revenues by 65%+ this year, and likely to compound >20%/year over the next 5 years, with further operating leverage expected
• No debt and an increasing cash pile, even while executing buybacks and reinvesting in growth and optimizationImage
3) $HITI

• The company was founded in 2009 and initially focused on selling cannabis consumption accessories
• After Canada announced the upcoming legalization of recreational cannabis, $HITI leveraged its existing customer base to expand into selling the plant itself
• Around 2018-2020, the company entered the equity markets and used its easier access to capital to expand its store footprint aggressively
• During the same period, $HITI acquired several e-commerce brands selling CBD products and consumption accessories, which had much higher margins than its core business
• In 2021, $HITI launched a discount club model for its retail stores — with consolidated margins higher than any competitor due to its acquisitions, $HITI could offer cannabis at remarkably low prices, attracting loyal members and rapidly gaining market share
• Its market share grew from less than 5% to over 11% in three years, and is expected to reach 15% over the next years as dozens of stores, including large corporations, are going bankrupt every month
• While the company sacrificed margins to win the price war, economies of scale and other initiatives enabled it to become both FCF and net income positive, with margins trending up
• After the success of its free discount model, which gathered over 1.5M members in under three years, $HITI launched ELITE, a paid membership with even better offers (members are growing 160%+ YoY)
• There's still significant market potential to capture in Canada, as well as international catalysts like the expansion into the U.S. and Germany
• While the previously mentioned e-commerce brands were important to sustain the initial launch of $HITI's discount model, they have recently become a hurdle — to deal with that, the company announced a global paid membership which aims to consolidate the fragmented CBD market
• White-label products will play a crucial role in improving $HITI's margins over time, with the company aiming to increase their share from 2.5-3% of SKUs to 20-25% of all store offerings in the long term
• The average $HITI store generates ~$2.6M in annual revenue, compared to $1.0M for peers, not only due to its proven business model but also because the company focuses on selecting the best locations
• $HITI recently acquired Purecan, a Germany wholesaler of medical cannabis. This move is highly strategic given that most medical cannabis in Germany is imported from Canada, and as the largest cannabis retailer in Canada, $HITI has established relationships with every major Licensed Producer (LP) — providing a significant competitive advantage
• This deal represents a transformational opportunity for $HITI to expand its TAM and experience significant operating leverageImage
Read 11 tweets
Feb 2
Last week, $HITI released its Q4 2024 earnings report.

As a longtime shareholder, I’ve been closely following the company for years.

Here’s a breakdown of everything: 🧵👇🏻 Image
1. Let’s start with the Financial Results.

Record revenue of $138.3M, exceeding consensus estimates of $135M. 🟢

Signs of revenue acceleration, with double-digit growth expected in 2025. The core business grew 12% YoY, but overall growth was slightly offset by underperformance in e-commerce.

Despite a $35.2M revenue increase, total expenses declined by $5.9M, demonstrating disciplined cost management.

FCF increased from $7M to $22M YoY (+217%), highlighting improved operational efficiency.

Adjusted EBITDA rose 25% YoY to $38.3M, with margin expansion from 6.3% to 7.3%.

Achieved Net Income profitability (excluding non-cash impairments) for the first time: $1.2M vs. a ($6.7M) loss YoY.

Same-store sales (SSS) increased 0.4% YoY and 3% QoQ, outperforming the broader cannabis retail market, which declined 1% YoY. I was expecting SSS to show slightly better growth, but it’s still a solid performance given the overall market conditions.

Gross margins remained stable YoY at 26% (down from 27% QoQ) – The company is avoiding price increases to allow weaker competitors to exit the market, setting up for future margin expansion.

“More and more competitors are leaving the race, big chains are struggling, middle size chains are struggling, independents are struggling. So as more competitors get out of the race, there's not going to be a lot of competitors remaining to be waging a price war with us. And at that point, we have a tremendous opportunity to increase gross margins in our core Canadian cannabis business.”

$HITI ended the fiscal year with a record cash balance of $47.3M and no debt maturities until September 2027. Total debt stands at $27M, with only $12M maturing in 2027.

All in all, $HITI delivered a strong quarter. As industry consolidation progresses, the company is well-positioned to enhance margins and drive sustained long-term growth. It’s important to note that the overall market has been struggling due to the resurgence of the illicit market, but management has been highly competent in navigating these short-term headwinds.Image
2. Footprint Expansion: Store Openings & Future Outlook

Accelerated and Self-Funded Store Growth:

• 29 new stores opened in 2024 (vs. 13 in 2023), more than doubling the prior year’s expansion and hitting the high end of guidance (20-30 stores). The company now owns 191 stores across five provinces.

• Growth was primarily organic, with only one store acquired — demonstrating disciplined expansion.

• Notably, all new stores were funded entirely through internal FCF, a rare achievement in the sector.

• Cost per store opening: ~$260K in build-out costs + $100K–$150K in working capital.

2025 Expansion Plans:

• Targeting another 20–30 new stores, all organically developed and funded by internal FCF.

• Management remains highly selective on M&A, despite ongoing inbound interest from struggling small chains and independent operators. Raj Grover has emphasized acquiring only highly strategic locations at deeply distressed valuations — evidenced by the last store acquisition in June 2024 at just 1.5x annualized Adj. EBITDA.

New store openings require upfront CapEx, working capital, and employee ramp-up, temporarily weighing on consolidated results. The 217% YoY FCF growth becomes even more impressive when we consider the ramp-up in store openings.

$HITI continues to lead the sector with best-in-class revenue per store:

• $2.6M per store vs. $1.2M industry average.

• In Ontario, the company’s key growth market, the gap is even wider: $3.5M per store vs. $1.1M from peers.

• Annualized retail sales per square foot across the Canna Cabana store network reached $1,699 in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2024, up 2% QoQ. This exceeded best-in-class retailers such as Walmart, Target, and Canadian Tire.Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 23
Alignment between managers and shareholders is one of the most important drivers of long-term success.

Here are 8 stocks from companies where the Founder & CEO holds a 20%+ stake: 👇🏻🧵

1) $TEM

The Founder & CEO, Eric Lefkofsky, owns 24.7% of the company.

Everyone is talking about it after Nancy Pelosi purchased $50k–$100k worth of call options set to expire in January 2026. Following a rally of over 30% because of this, I’ve decided not to start a position for now. However, it’s definitely an intriguing company that I’m keeping on my radar.

• It’s essentially a precision medicine company leveraging AI to analyze clinical and molecular data, enabling personalized treatment decisions, advancing drug discovery, and facilitating earlier disease diagnosis
• Initially, the company focused solely on oncology patients, but it soon recognized the immense potential of expanding into other diseases
• They’ve built the world’s largest library of clinical and molecular data, and now every major pharmaceutical company wants to collaborate with them
• The key advantage lies in the comprehensiveness of their datasets and AI tools, which enable deeper insights and more actionable results
• More than 50% of oncologists in the U.S. are using $TEM, creating a strong network effect
• The post-IPO lockup period recently expired, which is why the stock is down ~50% in the last month or so (potential opportunity)
• The recently announced acquisition of Ambry Genetics will accelerate its path to profitability, with the combination of both businesses already being EBITDA and cash flow positive (according to $TEM's CEO in the last earnings call) — this should be a strong catalyst
• As $NVDA's CEO said, I believe the next revolution brought by AI will be in biotech/healthcare, so I'm expecting this sector to get hotter in the foreseeable future
• In 2024, $TEM's Data Licensing revenue had a NRR of ~140%
• 19 of the 20 largest public pharmaceutical companies in the world are collaborating with $TEM
• The AI healthcare market is projected to grow from ~$21B in 2024 to close to $150B in 2029, a CAGR of over 48% — $TEM is in a unique position to benefit from this
• Both Google and Novo Nordisk are shareholders of the companyImage
2) $ELIX.L

The Founder & CEO, Stephen Newton, owns 24.1% of the company.

• Elixirr provides tailored consulting services across industries, specializing in innovation, strategy, and digital transformation (including AI and data-related services)
• It consistently delivers double-digit revenue growth with very solid margins (H1 29% Adj. EBITDA and 13% FCF)
• Impressive selection of clients, including Bank of America, LVMH, Tesla, Bloomberg, Diageo, and many others
• Elixirr has been named on the World’s Best Management Consulting Firms 2024 list by Forbes
• It has a solid cash balance with literally no debt
• Elixirr’s M&A team screened a further 700+ targets in H1 2024, with several potential acquisition opportunities currently in advanced stages
• Expected to grow revenue by >25% this year
• A valid risk to point out is the company’s customer concentration, with ~49% of revenue coming from the top 10 customers

I have to admit, this company only recently caught my attention through a screener, so I still need to conduct more research on it.Image
3) $NU

The Founder & CEO, David Velez, owns ~20% of the company.

• As a neobank without physical branches, $NU leverages technology to offer affordable and accessible financial services, expanding banking access in Latin America
• Over 100M active customers with a remarkable track record of exceeding expectations
• $NU's cohort curves demonstrate that the company is not only increasing its active customers but also making these customers more valuable over time
• $NU excels in the four cost pillars of retail financial services — cost to acquire, cost to serve, cost of risk, and cost of funding — giving it competitive advantages over rivals
• Thanks to its low-cost structure and rapidly growing customer base, $NU has shown strong operating leverage
• While most of $NU's revenue comes from Brazil, its business in Mexico is showing incredible potentialImage
Read 9 tweets
Jan 20
Nancy Pelosi just bought $50k-$100k in call options for $TEM.

It’s unusual for her to invest in small-cap stocks, so now everyone is wondering what’s so special about it...

Luckily, I was already preparing a thread about the company.

Here's an extensive summary of $TEM's investment thesis: 👇🏻🧵Image
1. Introduction to $TEM

Tempus AI, or $TEM, is a cutting-edge precision medicine company founded in 2015 by Eric Lefkofsky. The inspiration for Tempus arose from Lefkofsky’s personal life — his wife’s battle with breast cancer revealed how limited the role of technology was in shaping her care. Determined to change this, Lefkofsky set out to integrate advanced technology into healthcare, addressing a critical gap in the industry.

At its core, $TEM leverages AI to analyze vast amounts of clinical, imaging and molecular data. Its goal is ambitious yet clear: to revolutionize healthcare by enabling personalized treatment decisions, advancing drug discovery, and facilitating earlier and more accurate disease diagnoses.

$TEM initially focused only on oncology, enabling doctors to deliver tailored treatments for cancer patients. This “intelligent diagnostics” model proved so effective that the company expanded its efforts into other critical areas, such as neuropsychology and cardiology.

Today, $TEM's technology empowers thousands of physicians and life science companies, making a tangible difference in patients' lives.Image
2. The Booming Market for AI in Healthcare

The global AI in healthcare market is experiencing unprecedented growth, projected to expand from $15B in 2024 to a staggering $164B by 2030, representing a CAGR of 49.1%. 🤯

This explosive growth is driven by several factors, including:

• Increased Investments: Significant public and private sector funding is accelerating the adoption of AI technologies in healthcare.

• Rapid AI Proliferation: The integration of AI into healthcare systems is transforming diagnostics, treatment planning, and patient outcomes.

• Focus on Human-Aware AI Systems: Advances in AI technology are enabling more personalized and human-centered solutions, which are crucial in the healthcare domain.

$TEM is uniquely positioned to capitalize on some of these trends.

With its AI-powered precision medicine platform, $TEM is not only a pioneer in embedding AI into healthcare workflows but also a leader in driving real-world impact.Image
Read 14 tweets
Jan 12
If someone told me that the stock market was going to close for 10 years, here are 10 stocks I would comfortably own: 🧵👇🏻

1) $ASML

Semiconductors are the backbone of modern technology, and $ASML sits at the very heart of this critical industry.

With its monopoly on cutting-edge EUV lithography systems, $ASML enables the production of the most advanced chips that power AI, 5G, IoT, and beyond.

Its high barriers to entry and indispensable role in the semiconductor supply chain make it a company that isn’t going anywhere for the next decade.Image
2) $MELI

In Latin America’s booming digital economy, $MELI stands as the unrivaled leader in e-commerce and fintech. Its powerful network effects, innovative payment system Mercado Pago, and robust logistics infrastructure make it an indispensable part of the region’s economic transformation.

Beyond that, Mercado Ads — its rapidly growing advertising platform — enables brands to connect with millions of consumers while driving high-margin revenue growth.

With a scalable ecosystem and diversified growth engines, $MELI is poised to dominate for the next decade.Image
3) $RKLB

Some might call me crazy for this, but the global space economy is only just beginning to take off — and $RKLB is one of the few companies I can confidently say isn’t going anywhere.

As the leader in small launches with its Electron rocket, $RKLB has already democratized access to space. Now, with the upcoming Neutron rocket poised to challenge SpaceX’s monopoly in medium launches, $RKLB is cementing its position as a critical player in the space industry.

But $RKLB's vision goes far beyond rockets. As one of the most vertically integrated space companies in the world, it’s building an end-to-end ecosystem that spans launches, spacecraft, and space data services.

With unparalleled capital efficiency and a visionary Founder & CEO, $RKLB is at the forefront of an industry that will only grow in importance over the next decade.Image
Read 11 tweets

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