As Ukrainian forces continue to annihilate North Korean troops and occasionally take them prisoner, some intriguing details have come to light. A short thread 🧵 1/9
Capturing POWs has proven challenging as North Koreans and Russians alike are apparently instructed to kill wounded NK soldiers to prevent them from falling into Ukrainian hands. Yet recently Ukrainians have successfully captured two NK soldiers alive. 2/9
Both individuals carried Russian military service cards alleging they were born in the Tuva Republic, a region included in the Russian Federation. Russian non-regime media also report that the Russian authorities transferred identities of actual Tuvans to drafted NK soldiers. 3/9
The choice of Tuva is understandable: native Tuvans bear a physical resemblance to North Koreans. 4/9
By the way, Russia’s former Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is himself of Tuvan origin. 5/9
The fact that the captured NK soldiers’ documents claimed Tuva as their birthplace corroborates earlier findings. Russian service cards recovered from the killed NK soldiers similarly falsely listed the Tuva Republic as their place of birth. 6/9
Yet another particularly interesting discovery was a diary found on one killed NK soldier. Ukrainian Special Operations Forces translated a number of pages from that diary, which the former owner had regularly updated, and one part was especially revealing for me. 7/9
Here is a DeepL translation (UA->EN) of that part. It reveals that the soldier’s motivation to fight was not connected to Russia’s war itself but stemmed from his loyalty to the NK regime – loyalty that appeared partly driven by a sense of guilt over something he had done back home. 8/9
Of course, this is just one example, and it would be unwise to generalise. However, at least in this specific case, the soldier’s motivation to fight in a distant foreign land was not about bringing about a global communist revolution – something that would be too natural for many 20th century communists – but, curiously, about his own individual interests. 9/9
“The future of Europe should not be decided in Washington or Moscow”. President Emmanuel Macron delivered his address to the French people today, here's a thread summarising his speech. 1/11
His address has outlined a strategic vision for France and Europe in response to mounting global instability, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine and the broader Russian threat. 2/11
Macron says that supporting Ukraine is essential not only for its sovereignty but for European security. A failure to counter Russia’s aggression would embolden further territorial ambitions, leading to a breakdown of international order. 3/11
Have you noticed a recent uptick in "expert analyses" arguing that Russia remains a strong economy able to wage its war against Ukraine for many years? This uptick is hardly a coincidence, and a new insider report from VCHK-OGPU suggests it's part of Russian information warfare and provides even more details on what is going on inside the Kremlin regime. 1/7
In the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin tasked an informal group of loyal economists (Anton Siluanov, Maxim Oreshkin, Elvira Nabiullina, etc.) with managing economic and financial issues, as well as providing him with reports on real assessment of Russian economy. 2/7
Internationally, however, the Putin regime has aimed at convincing US administrations (first Biden, then Trump) of Russia’s economic resilience and its ability to sustain the conflict, thereby pushing for favourable agreements. This approach - demonstrating strength while masking vulnerabilities - has been more or less successful even with the people close to Trump in autumn last year. 3/7
With the holiday quiet filling my inbox, I took the opportunity to explore Russia’s potential to disrupt Western underwater cables. Here’s what I uncovered – it’s a deep dive, so buckle up! 1/21
There are three main methods to interfere with underwater cables. The first involves deploying trained professionals to manually cut the cables. This can be done using scuba divers for shallow waters up to 50 metres deep, typically near shorelines, or saturation divers for depths reaching 300 metres. However, the primary drawback of this approach is the risk of divers being caught, which significantly reduces plausible deniability of the responsible party. 2/21
The second method involves using either a fishing net or an anchor to tamper with the cable. One approach is to hook the cable with a fishing net, lift it onto a “fishing vessel”, and cut it there. Alternatively, an anchor can be used to drag the cable and cut it underwater. 3/21
Moscow’s ultimate goal in its war against Ukraine was stated by Putin as early as April 2008 at the Nato summit in Bucharest: the eradication of Ukraine as an independent state and nation. 1/8
The Kremlin envisions to achieve the first part of its aim by dismantling Ukraine, annexing most of it into Russia, and leaving the barely functional remnants to neighbouring European countries with historical ties to those regions. 2/8
Poland would be offered Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Volyn regions; Hungary – Transcarpathia; and Romania – Bukovina and Southern Bessarabia. In fact, Russian officials have already made some of these offers. 3/8
It's relatively straightforward to anticipate the political warfare tactics Russia might employ against the West. The key lies in understanding the tactics Russia believes the West is using against it. Russia feels justified in "returning the favour" – in other words, it often mirrors the actions it perceives the West is directing toward it, responding in kind based on what it considers hostile practices. 1/5
The Putin regime believes that Western nations are interfering in Russian internal politics, supporting opposition leaders and influencers, anti-governmental protests, and media and NGOs critical of the Kremlin to foster unrest. In a “reverse-engineering” mode, Russia is supporting all Western-based stakeholders that challenge the mainstream authorities. 2/5
The Kremlin believes the West conducts propaganda and disinformation campaigns to tarnish Russia’s image internationally, blaming it for various global issues and spreading anti-Russian narratives. Russia does and will continuing doing exactly what it accuses the West of doing. 3/5