Thread by @fbermingham

🚨New Chinese data this morning shows overall trade with the EU grew just 0.4% in 2024

Chinese exports to the EU up 3% vs 2023
Chinese imports from the EU down 4.4%

China's annual imports from:
Germany -10.7%
Netherlands +11.2% (ASML chip making kit)
France -5.9%
Italy -3.2%

According to my calculations based on last year's numbers, the EU trade deficit with China is now US$247.1bn, up from US$219.5 billion last year

That's close to €300bn (€293.8bn) and is up 12.58% from 2023.

This will help fuel more talk of Chinese overcapacity

According to Soapbox newsletter, "roughly 2% of the drop in import prices can be linked to the EURO/yuan exchange rate, though this is likely offset by higher freight costs in 2024 compared to 2023."

Chart uses Eurostat numbers

soapboxtrade.substack.com/p/eu-member-st…

It goes on: "With product mix remaining largely unchanged, reasonable to conclude that factors like overcapacity and intense domestic competition have pushed Chinese exporters to reduce prices"

Politically, probably not a great msg for China to send to the world as 2025 begins

In total, China's trade surplus with the world is almost at US$1tn. A record high of US$992.1 billion.

This was led by all-time high exports of integrated circuits and cars.

Coming a week before Trump's inauguration, a US$1tn surplus feels significant

scmp.com/economy/global…

Last year was bad enough:

China's trading partners announced a total of 160 trade investigations into made-in-China products in 2024

Up 132% from 2023, per @miyessarMIA calculations on Mofcom data

scmp.com/economy/global…

"Twenty-eight trading partners launched investigations into Chinese imports last year, up from 18 in 2023. Notably, the list included more developing countries, such as Thailand, Peru and Pakistan."

Expect this tension to accelerate in 2025.