EXCLUSIVE

Wang Yi told Kaja Kallas that China cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, otherwise the US will divert its full focus to Beijing

scmp.com/news/china/dip… The comment during yesterday's talks in Brussels confirms what many believe to be Beijing’s position on the war but jars with China’s public utterances.

Xi is *this* close to saying "overcapacity". On the tip of his tongue!

China needs to “lawfully regulate enterprises’ disorderly low-price competition, guide companies to improve product quality, promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity”

scmp.com/economy/china-… In addressing the price wars plaguing many industries in China, the country’s top leadership has resorted to a phrase rarely seen at a high-level meeting, saying that enterprises’ “disorderly low-price competition” needs to be regulated.

NEW: Some bonkers numbers in China's May customs data.

Detailed figures came out Fri when I was off, so took a deep dive today

First big picture EU stuff:

China's EU exports up 12%
China's EU imports down 2.37%

There is a 22% increase in the EU's China deficit in May alone Earlier in the month we saw some big jumps in China's exports to the big EU markets

China's exports to Germany up 21.5%
China's exports to France up 24.1%
China's exports to Netherlands up 7.1%

But I did the sums for the 27 and it is pretty mad...

New Chinese trade data out today for May might deepen anxiety over trade diversion in Europe.

China's exports to the US down 34.52%
China's exports to the EU up 12%
China's exports to Germany up 21.5%
China's exports to France up 24.1%
China's exports to Netherlands up 7.1% This is an extension of the theme noticed in April despite the Geneva deal that lowered US-China tariffs

https://x.com/fbermingham/status/1920794105438671188

NEW: ‘There are limits’: the problems with China’s efforts to patch things up with Europe

Trump has handed Europe to China on a plate, but Beijing's charm offensive has left the EU cold.

A long read from me.

Illustration by Lau Ka-kuen

scmp.com/news/china/dip… There have been many signs of a messy divorce between Europe and the US since Trump’s return, but one of the most stark arrived earlier this month.

A survey of more than 100,000 people found that in Europe, net perceptions of China have overtaken those of the US.

China's trade data for April came out this morning.

Have just had the chance to do some sums based on last April's numbers, and for Europe it is an absolute bloodbath.

EU exports to China are down by huge numbers, while China's exports to EU members keep surging

🧵 Monthly figures April 2025 vs April 2024

China's EU imports: -16.46%
China's German imports: -12.2%
China's French imports: -12.9%
China's Dutch imports: - 22.9%
China's Italian imports: -17.66%

Zelensky: Chinese citizens were working at a drone production site in Russia, suggests Moscow may have “stolen” drone technology from China.

Comments come days after he said China was supplying weapons and gunpowder to Russia

scmp.com/news/world/rus… Ukraine’s foreign ministry said it had summoned Chinese Ambassador Ma Shengkun and expressed Ukraine’s “serious concerns” over Chinese involvement in the war.

Wang Yi calling European counterparts to try rallying them against Trump

1. With UK's David Lammy

"In context of rampant unilateral bullying, China + UK have responsibility to maintain the international order formed after WWII, with UN at its core + multilateral trading system" Wang:

"This practice of regressing state-to-state relations to the law of the jungle is a historical reversal, unpopular and unsustainable, and is being resisted and opposed by more and more countries."

China's March trade data out

Continuation of some unwanted trends that'll stoke EU trade diversion angst

China's EU exports⬆️10.29%
China's EU imports⬇️7.5%
China's German exports⬆️ 11.9%
China's German imports⬇️ 6.5%
China's French exports ⬆️4.5%
China's French imports ⬇️2.6% This chart shows the trend over the first quarter of 2025 (all stats in value terms, year-on-year)

China's EU exports⬆️3.7%
China's EU imports⬇️6.3%
China's German exports⬆️ 6%
China's German imports⬇️ 5.2%
China's French exports ⬆️0.5%
China's French imports ⬇️5%

New from me:

As the US and China wage superpower trade war, the EU senses more leverage over Beijing

scmp.com/news/china/dip… When French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot went to Beijing last month, he gave his Chinese counterparts an ultimatum: do something about hefty tariffs on cognac imports and the liquor’s abrupt removal from your duty-free stores, or our entire “strategic agenda” will be paused.

Late night SCOOP!

EU leaders plan trip to Beijing in July for summit with Xi Jinping

VDL + Costa plan comes after they failed to convince Xi to come to Brussels

scmp.com/news/china/dip… The plan suggests a second successive EU-China summit would be held in the Chinese capital, despite the fact that the location is supposed to rotate.

VDL and Charles Michel went to Beijing in 2023, there was no summit last year

Breaking

In response to Trump's tariffs on steel & aluminium, the European Commission announced 2 tranches of retaliation covering €26bn in US goods 1. Suspended retaliation from Trump 1.0 will lapse on April 1

2. New measures in response to the additional Trump duties totalling €18bn, in mid Apr

We're bang in the middle of global upheaval that's sweeping all before it. This could include EU-China relations

We're waiting for the *actual* change, but there's been lots of noise, so here's a long thread on what's happened this year and where we may go

Anatomy of a detente? As 2025 began, EU-China ties were in a terrible place. Brussels was fed up of Beijing's ties with Moscow and its intransigence on economic issues

But with Trump coming, talk of a trade war was parked as both sides awaited the inevitable change.

scmp.com/news/china/art…

China courts frazzled Europe as Western alliance wavers

A thread looking at how Beijing swooped in to try to charm Europe in the face of US hostility in Munich

scmp.com/news/china/dip… Munich was left stunned by the words and deeds of Vance, Kellogg and others

The VP told Europe to forget Russia and China, the real enemy was the threat from within.

He told them to drop the firewall against far-right parties, then met the leader of the AfD

BREAKING: EU finds discrimination in China's medical devices sector, concluding first probe under international procurement instrument

Brussels wants talks with Beijing, but could ban Chinese bidders from EU government contracts Probe launched in April 2024. IPI investigations must complete in 9 months, so nothing political about the timing

Report published today found “clear evidence of China limiting access of EU medical devices producers to its government contracts in unfair and discriminatory way”.

🚨New Chinese data this morning shows overall trade with the EU grew just 0.4% in 2024

Chinese exports to the EU up 3% vs 2023
Chinese imports from the EU down 4.4%

China's annual imports from:
Germany -10.7%
Netherlands +11.2% (ASML chip making kit)
France -5.9%
Italy -3.2% According to my calculations based on last year's numbers, the EU trade deficit with China is now US$247.1bn, up from US$219.5 billion last year

That's close to €300bn (€293.8bn) and is up 12.58% from 2023.

This will help fuel more talk of Chinese overcapacity

New: EU plans for talks with Trump’s team as it seeks to head off a major economic shock

They seek to avoid tariffs and ensure US support for Ukraine. They've already been told what Trump would expect in return: EU backing for his tough agenda on China.

scmp.com/news/china/art… The China demand was made clear during pre-election talks with Republican interlocutors, according to people familiar with the talks.

It's likely to be just one item on a laundry list from a man who showed disdain for EU institutions during his first stint in the White House.

Waiting for Trump? How EU’s China policy anticipates his return to the White House

Report from me 2 weeks out from the US election on how fear of 2.0 is percolating through almost every fibre of EU policymaking - especially on China

scmp.com/news/china/dip… Ahead of the vote on EV duties earlier this month, several EU members were called on by American diplomats.

The msg was simple: if you vote against these duties and Trump wins in November, the EU would have no credibility to make a deal with Trump that might involve China policy

NEW: China and EU hurtling towards trade war, business chief fears

Caught up with EU Chamber in China chief Jens Eskelund in Brussels yesterday

scmp.com/news/china/art… The chamber expects EU duties on Chinese EVs this summer, and China to respond

“Based on historical precedence, I fear there will be retaliation."

Asked if he was confident a trade war could be averted: “I really wish I could give you an emphatic yes. And I don’t think I can."

As Xi Jinping heads to France, China seeks chance to sway one of EU’s most powerful members

Reupping this longread from the weekend

scmp.com/news/china/dip… Macron's China policy can often seem contradictory and confusing - few have embodied that enigmatic triptych of “partner, competitor, rival” more than he.

“He is neither pro-China nor anti-American. Macron is pro-European,” said MEP ally @MariePierreV

Feels like a pretty seismic week in EU-China relations. I get the feeling that we're not in Kansas anymore

Here is a summary of the major events that have happened, let me know if I missed any, bearing in mind it's still only lunchtime on Friday... Monday:

German federal prosecutors announced that three German nationals had been arrested on “strong suspicion” of spying for Chinese intelligence services.

(UK also charged two men under the Official Secrets Act over allegedly spying for China)

scmp.com/news/china/dip…