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Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
@evgen1232007
Jan 14 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Russian Telegram channels reported that Ukrainian drones arrived in Almetyevsk, Tatarstan today. The target is the Kalaykino oil pumping station, the largest transport hub for pumping oil from Siberia to the European part of the country.
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More from @evgen1232007

Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 14
Thread
Construction in Russia is going down the drain.
New statistics have been released. In December, the share of sold apartments fell to 31%. At the same time, the volume of housing under construction fell by 5 million square meters.
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The volume of unsold housing remained at 53 million square meters. This is an entire city with a population of 2 million people.
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The number of construction permits that developers must obtain in November fell by 45%
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Read 8 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 14
Mini thread
Rumors are actively spreading in Russia about freezing citizens' deposits according to the Cyprus scenario.
Amounts up to 1.4 million rubles remain with citizens, everything above that is converted into bank shares.
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Yesterday, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was forced to urgently issue an explanation about the impossibility of such an outcome. But apparently the situation is more serious if the Central Bank takes such measures
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Today the story has continued. State Duma deputy Alexey Nechayev proposed to limit the Central Bank's powers in matters of freezing deposits without the consent of the State Duma. Apparently there are reasons for such an active response that we do not know.
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Read 4 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 12
A stunning new study.
Moscow is financing the war with soft loans from banks. Expenditures on the war are 2 times higher than the budget.
Russia's entire banking system could collapse in an instant !!!!
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 navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/russias-hidd…
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 frankmedia.ru/187038
Read 5 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 17, 2024
Thread.
In this thread I will tell you about the problems of Russia, which no one has published about before. Problems of state monopolies. Let's begin.
Avtodor - 30% yield
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В условиях растущей инфляции и ожиданий очередного повышения ключевой облигации государственных монополий начали обвал.
Почта России - доходность 28%
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Russian Railways, yield 26%
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Read 8 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 12, 2024
Bankruptcies of the Russian debt market.
Part 2. Thread.
Yesterday I detailed the sectoral problems. The real estate sector is the leader. Well, let's figure it out.
Here are the stock charts of the two largest developers.
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And here are the quotes of the developers' bonds in descending order by value. In these tables you can see how rapidly the bonds are falling in price. Yields reach 40-50% But why did this happen? More on that below
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Before the war with Ukraine in 2022, the state issued preferential loans, but their share did not exceed 30%. Because of the war, lending on market terms collapsed. The state had to save the sector. Programs expanded, and requirements were reduced.
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Read 12 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 11, 2024
Analysis of the Russian corporate debt market. Defaults are near!

The latest inflation data in Russia shows poor dynamics, which means that the Central Bank will raise the key rate again. This will affect many companies. Well, let's figure out what is happening in Russia.
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In the chart above, we see the dynamics of credit spreads by industry sectors. Let's figure out what happened and why there is such a huge spread.
The corporate debt market in Ru has been actively growing for many years. So this year, 264 issuers placed bonds for 14 trill rub
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After the sanctions were imposed, issuers were forced to switch to the domestic loan market. Which led to multiple growth. In 2023, bonds worth 5.9 trillion rubles were placed there.
In 2024, already for 6.3 trillion rubles
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Read 12 tweets

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