#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.
Every on-chain metric signals a bear market. With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices.
@cryptoquant_com users who subscribed to my alerts received this signal a few days ago. I assume they've already adjusted their positions, so I'm posting this now.
This alert applies PCA to on-chain indicators like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL to compute a 365-day moving average. This signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the 1-year moving average changes.
See the chart below for details. I double-checked the data—it’s accurate.
I've been calling for a bull market over the past two years, even when indicators were borderline. Sorry to change my view, but it now looks pretty clear that we're entering a bear market.
Realized cap-based indicators show a lack of new liquidity. Massive volume around 100K failed to push the price higher, and ETF inflows have been negative for three consecutive weeks.
I can’t keep sharing just my hopes when the data keeps signaling bearish. I'm not going to short BTC and still hold my spot.
No direct BTC-to-alt rotation, but stablecoin holders are favoring alts. Alt volume is 2.7x BTC. BTC Dominance no longer defines alt season—trading volume does.
It’s a very selective alt season tho. DYOR.
No BTC-to-alt rotation. BTC isn’t a quote currency anymore.
#Bitcoin bull market is starting, with data resembling 2020.
Thread 🧵
1/ I’ve been talking about on-chain whale accumulation for months.
Back then, many criticized the data as exaggerated, and even I had doubts. But the data was correct, and now the reason for the accumulation seems to be becoming pretty clear.
If you're a new whale who just entered this bull run, bought #Bitcoin from old whales, and your profit is currently +1%, would you dump your bags on retail investors now?
The new whale wallets, primarily custodial wallets and ETFs, have not yet generated sufficient profit.
The current market volatility is just a game in the futures market.
Real whales move the market through spot trading and OTC markets. That’s why on-chain data is crucial. The older whales haven’t seen particularly high returns, and the whales who entered in this recent bull run have barely made any profits.
They are unlikely to dump on exchanges until liquidity from retail investors starts flowing in, imo.