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Ki Young Ju Profile picture
@ki_young_ju
Jan 16 • 1 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
U.S. uses Coinbase. The world uses Binance. Image

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More from @ki_young_ju

Ki Young Ju Profile picture
Nov 2
I gave up predicting Bitcoin price, but I haven’t given up analyzing data.

Bitcoin data briefing thread 🧵
1/ Bitcoin wallets’ avg cost basis is $55.9K, meaning holders are up ~93% on average.

Realized cap keeps rising (+$8B this week), indicating on-chain inflows remain strong.

Price hasn’t gone up because of selling pressure, not because demand was weak. Image
2/ New inflows mostly come from ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies, while CEX traders & miners are sitting on ~2x gains.

• ETFs / Custodial Wallets: $112K (-1%)
• Binance Traders: $56K (+96%)
• Miners: $56K (+96%)
• Long-term Whales: $43K (+155%)

Current Price: $110K Image
Read 11 tweets
Ki Young Ju Profile picture
Mar 17
#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action. Image
Every on-chain metric signals a bear market. With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices.

@cryptoquant_com users who subscribed to my alerts received this signal a few days ago. I assume they've already adjusted their positions, so I'm posting this now.

This alert applies PCA to on-chain indicators like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL to compute a 365-day moving average. This signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the 1-year moving average changes.

See the chart below for details. I double-checked the data—it’s accurate.

cryptoquant.com/alert/preset?i…Image
I've been calling for a bull market over the past two years, even when indicators were borderline. Sorry to change my view, but it now looks pretty clear that we're entering a bear market.

Realized cap-based indicators show a lack of new liquidity. Massive volume around 100K failed to push the price higher, and ETF inflows have been negative for three consecutive weeks.

I can’t keep sharing just my hopes when the data keeps signaling bearish. I'm not going to short BTC and still hold my spot.Image
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Read 5 tweets
Ki Young Ju Profile picture
Feb 21
Alt season has begun.

No direct BTC-to-alt rotation, but stablecoin holders are favoring alts. Alt volume is 2.7x BTC. BTC Dominance no longer defines alt season—trading volume does.

It’s a very selective alt season tho. DYOR. Image
No BTC-to-alt rotation. BTC isn’t a quote currency anymore. Image
Dashboard 👇

cryptoquant.com/community/dash…
Read 5 tweets
Ki Young Ju Profile picture
Nov 21, 2024
#Bitcoin bull market is starting, with data resembling 2020.

Thread 🧵 Image
1/ I’ve been talking about on-chain whale accumulation for months.

Back then, many criticized the data as exaggerated, and even I had doubts. But the data was correct, and now the reason for the accumulation seems to be becoming pretty clear.

2/ Mining costs doubled after the halving, and the price needs to go up to maintain mining profitability.

Read 6 tweets
Ki Young Ju Profile picture
Nov 8, 2024
Just created #Bitcoin cyclical buy/sell signals triggered only 1-2 times per cycle by combining on-chain cost-basis indicators. Details in the thread. Image
On-chain realized price reveals wallet profitability.

#Bitcoin wallets currently show +127% returns, typically ranging from -24% at cyclical lows to 298% at cyclical highs.

I've created preset alerts for long-term traders based on these cycles.
You buy #Bitcoin when everyone is underwater.

Link 👇
cryptoquant.com/alert/preset?i…Image
Read 4 tweets
Ki Young Ju Profile picture
Oct 29, 2024
#Bitcoin institutional demand in custodial wallets is rising.

Over the past year, 278K BTC flowed into U.S. spot ETFs (80% retail) vs. 670K BTC into whale wallets (1K+ BTC, excluding exchanges/mining pools).

In custodial wallets, institutional demand is twice that of retail. Image
These whale wallets are supersets of custodial wallets.

Since most ETF wallets hold under 1K BTC, they accurately represent custodial wallets, imo.

More granular data is needed for better insights. Feel free to comment if you have any cohort filter ideas.
Live Chart 👇
cryptoquant.com/community/dash…
Read 4 tweets

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