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Ki Young Ju Profile picture
Ki Young Ju
@ki_young_ju
Founder & CEO @cryptoquant_com
4 subscribers
Nov 20 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
MSTR only goes bankrupt if an asteroid hits Earth.

At least bring a single piece of evidence if you are going to say nonsense like Saylor would get liquidated. Saylor would never sell Bitcoin unless shareholders want it. He has made this clear many times.

Selling even a single BTC would destroy MSTR’s identity as a Bitcoin treasury company and trigger a death spiral for both Bitcoin and MSTR.

His shareholders want Bitcoin’s value to remain strong and expect him to keep creating liquidity hacks that push MSTR and Bitcoin upward together.
Nov 2 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
I gave up predicting Bitcoin price, but I haven’t given up analyzing data.

Bitcoin data briefing thread 🧵 1/ Bitcoin wallets’ avg cost basis is $55.9K, meaning holders are up ~93% on average.

Realized cap keeps rising (+$8B this week), indicating on-chain inflows remain strong.

Price hasn’t gone up because of selling pressure, not because demand was weak. Image
Mar 17 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action. Image Every on-chain metric signals a bear market. With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices.

@cryptoquant_com users who subscribed to my alerts received this signal a few days ago. I assume they've already adjusted their positions, so I'm posting this now.

This alert applies PCA to on-chain indicators like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL to compute a 365-day moving average. This signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the 1-year moving average changes.

See the chart below for details. I double-checked the data—it’s accurate.

cryptoquant.com/alert/preset?i…Image
Feb 21 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Alt season has begun.

No direct BTC-to-alt rotation, but stablecoin holders are favoring alts. Alt volume is 2.7x BTC. BTC Dominance no longer defines alt season—trading volume does.

It’s a very selective alt season tho. DYOR. Image No BTC-to-alt rotation. BTC isn’t a quote currency anymore. Image
Nov 21, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
#Bitcoin bull market is starting, with data resembling 2020.

Thread 🧵 Image 1/ I’ve been talking about on-chain whale accumulation for months.

Back then, many criticized the data as exaggerated, and even I had doubts. But the data was correct, and now the reason for the accumulation seems to be becoming pretty clear.

Nov 8, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Just created #Bitcoin cyclical buy/sell signals triggered only 1-2 times per cycle by combining on-chain cost-basis indicators. Details in the thread. Image On-chain realized price reveals wallet profitability.

#Bitcoin wallets currently show +127% returns, typically ranging from -24% at cyclical lows to 298% at cyclical highs.

I've created preset alerts for long-term traders based on these cycles.
Oct 29, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#Bitcoin institutional demand in custodial wallets is rising.

Over the past year, 278K BTC flowed into U.S. spot ETFs (80% retail) vs. 670K BTC into whale wallets (1K+ BTC, excluding exchanges/mining pools).

In custodial wallets, institutional demand is twice that of retail. Image These whale wallets are supersets of custodial wallets.

Since most ETF wallets hold under 1K BTC, they accurately represent custodial wallets, imo.

More granular data is needed for better insights. Feel free to comment if you have any cohort filter ideas.
Oct 2, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
If you're a new whale who just entered this bull run, bought #Bitcoin from old whales, and your profit is currently +1%, would you dump your bags on retail investors now? Image The new whale wallets, primarily custodial wallets and ETFs, have not yet generated sufficient profit. Image
Dec 4, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
What #Bitcoin whales did before this bull run:

Thread 🧵 1/ Whale traders opened giga long positions at $29k.

Mar 11, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Value dropping to zero means major shareholders are selling.

No on-chain proof of $USDC bank run found for now. 1/

Circle has burned $2.34B $USDC in the last 24 hours, but that's not a significant amount of money if you see the historical data.

cryptoquant.com/asset/usdc/cha…
Jan 29, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Time flies faster as we age.

Probably the perceived progress of life as a whole will be proportional to the sum of a harmonic sequence.

At 31, my brain sees my life as 77% complete. Time to make the most of each moment. Image For example, at 1 year old, a year is 100% of your life. At 2 years old, it's 50%. At 3 years old, it's 33.3%.

A formula based on harmonic numbers shows that at 100 years old, we've only lived 5 years in terms of perceived time.

Like actual vs perceived temperature.
Jan 25, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#Bitcoin entered into the early bull phase.

cryptoquant.com/dashboard/63c8… Most investors are still underwater if you see on-chain PnL-related indicators like MVRV.

No one would want to sell here at a significant loss.

If someone sells a lot, it's highly likely forced & unwanted selling due to bankruptcy, government-seized coins, etc.
Jan 24, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
$BTC miner capitulation might play out differently this time.

Less likely, but it could be bullish if someone(s) acquires US-based #Bitcoin mining companies and their crypto holdings at a significant discount this year.

Thread 🧵 1/
$BTC hash rate hit an all-time high again. Why?

U.S. miners are running mining rigs at full capacity to repay the financing debt owed on equipment it was leasing.

Foundry USA pool took 42% of the total hash rate for the last 24 hours, the largest dominance since 2014.
Nov 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
FTX's stablecoin reserve just reached a year-low.

$51M as of now. -93% over the last two weeks.

cryptoquant.com/asset/stableco… @cz_binance FTX hourly withdrawals for $ETH just hit an all-time high.

cryptoquant.com/asset/eth/char…
Nov 2, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
FUN FACT: Government of China🇨🇳 is a crypto whale.

Chinese authorities seized 194k BTC, 833k ETH, and others from the PlusToken scam in 2019. They forfeited these $6 billion-worth assets to the national treasury.

FWIW, MicroStrategy has 130k $BTC. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… PlusToken-related MFers who used the same mixer are still sending $BTC to exchanges, for example, 50 BTC a week ago.

cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/char…
Aug 24, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Stablecoin is leading the institutional crypto adoption.

TradFis just passed the #Bitcoin hurdle. And now they're investing in stablecoin reserves. I think we'll see some Defi investments in the next few months.

Thread 👇 1/ Fed Chair Powell said CBDC and Stablecoins can coexist.

Using more USD stablecoins globally can be helpful to strengthen the dollar's supremacy just like petrodollars.

blockworks.co/fed-chair-powe…
Jul 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Lessons From My 4-year of On-chain Data Analysis

Thread 👇 1/

The problem with on-chain data is noise.

You can get insights from aggregated on-chain data, but you should take a look at the transaction level to speculate things like who moved tokens, why now, etc.

Most of the time, it's pretty obvious if you have address labels.
May 16, 2022 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Q. Are institutional investors selling #Bitcoin?

A. They're buying $BTC via market makers right now.

Here's what happened last week 👇 2022-05-07 (Sat)

The market makers, who use @Gemini, sent ~84k BTC to @Binance from May 7th to May 10th, hitting an all-time high.

cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/char…
Oct 15, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
If you are not an insider, keep your eyes on data to see how front-runners behave:

1/ $1.6B-worth $BTC buying in 5 mins
2/ $186B-worth $BTC moved on the network (not from exchanges, highly likely OTC deals)
3/ #Bitcoin futures premium on CME surges

Fit puzzle pieces together. 1/ 1.6B-worth $BTC buying in 5 mins.

May 19, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Whales started depositing $BTC to exchanges when the price was $50k.

Tbh, I was super bullish before Elon's tweets, and then this shit happened after his tweet. Can't blame him, but it seems like a butterfly effect.

Until this indicator cools off, I'll keep my bearish bias. About this indicator 👉dataguide.cryptoquant.com/quick-start/wh…

Chart👉cryptoquant.com/prochart/xkmjg…
Mar 23, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
How to buy $BTC at the global bottoms:

1. $BTC drops hard over -30%
2. All Exchange Inflow Mean (MA7) spikes over 2.5 BTC
3. The indicator cools down
4. ALL-IN $BTC
5. Become a billionaire and give a tip to @cryptoquant_com

Chart 👉 cryptoquant.com/overview/full/… About this indicator:

"Whales tend to realize profits when retail investors are active in the market. ... Bitcoin price is likely to go up when whales are active in the market in the long term."

dataguide.cryptoquant.com/quick-start/wh…