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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Jan 16, 2025 • 1 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
How are the top science programs handling high COVID-19 transmission, inclusivity, equity, and diversity in January 2025?

🔥Sick policies
🔥Virtual options
🔥High-quality masks supplied/required
🔥ASHRAE-level air cleaning

This is an excerpt of my welcome email to students:This is a "COVID Safe" class that is designed to be cautious, compassionate, inclusive, and equitable by providing extremely strong, evidence based COVID precautions. My goal is for our classroom to be the most COVID-safe indoor in-person learning environment in the state of Louisiana and push our colleagues to do better in other states that more often lead the way, such as Texas, California, NY, NJ, and Connecticut. Anyone entering the classroom will be expected to wear a well-fitting high-quality mask (e.g., N95, KN95, KF94) 100.0% of the time. I will provide many different type...

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 10
The size of the winter COVlD wave has been revised upward as post-holiday data come in.

We estimated 1 in 55 people in the U.S. are actively infectious.

🔥WV: 1 in 14
🔥IN: 1 in 15
🔥MI & OH: 1 in 21
🔥MO: 1 in 22
🔥CT: 1 in 24
🔥KS: 1 in 25
🔥MA & IL: 1 in 27

Quick 🧵 1/4 Heat map and PMC estimates, 1 in 55 infectious and 892,000 new daily infections for Jan 12. We expedited the report to release it two days early.
Nationally, we are seeing an estimated 892,000 new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections, meaning a 1 in 4 chance of exposure in a room of 15 people. Risk varies considerably by state.

We are approaching an average of 5 infections per person since pandemic onset.
🧵 2/4 Alabama Moderate Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low Arkansas High* California Very Low Colorado Low Connecticut Very High Delaware Moderate District of Columbia Very Low Florida Very Low Georgia Very Low Guam Very Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very High Indiana Very High Iowa High Kansas Very High Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Moderate Maine High Maryland High Massachusetts Very High Michigan Very High* Minnesota Moderate Mississippi Low* Missouri Very High* Montana High Nebraska High Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Moderate New Jersey Low New Mexico Moderate New York High* North Ca...
We are in the 12th COVlD wave of the U.S.

Current transmission is higher than 68% of all days since the pandemic onset in 2020.
🧵 3/4 12 waves of COVlD Pandemic barometer: Higher than 88% of the past 100 days, 73% of the past year, 68% of the entire pandemic. Year over year graph Forecast of slowly declining transmission.
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 8
You might not have heard, but the northeastern U.S. is in a COVlD surge.

We use wastewater levels to derive estimates of the proportion of people actively infectious in each state (prevalence), e.g., 1 in 24 people in Connecticut.

Let me walk you through it...

🧵1/8 Colors show CDC levels PMC prevalence estimates noted: -Maine 1 in 38 actively infectious with COVlD -New Hampshire 1 in 35 (limited data) -Vermont 1 in 75 -New York 1 in 44 (limited data) -Pennsylvania 1 in 44 -Massachusetts 1 in 36 -Connecticut 1 in 24 -Rhode Island 1 in 41 -New Jersey 1 in 82
Notice that #Connecticut has excellent SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance. It's "Very High" across much of the state, per CDC.

Based on wastewater levels, we estimate 1 in 24 residents are actively infectious w/COVlD. That's a 66% exposure risk in a room of 25 people.

🧵2/8 Colors show CDC levels PMC estimate of prevalence
The CDC reports "Very High" levels in #Massachusetts.

The surveillance is less robust, but we estimate 1 in 26 residents are actively infectious, similar to our estimate in CT where coverage is better.

In a room of 25 people, that's a 62% chance of an exposure.

🧵3/8 Colors show CDC levels PMC prevalence estimates provided
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 8
We're in the middle of a 12th COVlD wave in the U.S., with transmission particularly high in the Midwest and Northeast.

The CDC announced this week that COVlD continues to kill more Americans than breast and prostate cancer combined.

Get boosted & #MaskUp 💉💪😷
1/4🧵 Heat map of CDC data with PMC prevalence estimate
Levels are "Moderate" to "Very High" in 26 states.

However, data reporting is slow, and about 1/3 of states have low-quality data this week due to the holidays and illness.

2/4🧵 National estimates: Number of People Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 1.5% 2 3.0% 3 4.5% 4 6.0% 5 7.4% 10 14.3% 15 20.7% 20 26.5% 25 32.0% 30 37.0% 50 53.8% 75 68.6% 100 78.6% 200 95.4% 300 99.0%
Barometer: Higher transmission than 90 of the past 100 days (perhaps higher still, due to low data reporting quality)
State CDC Level Actively Infectious Alabama Moderate 1 in 48 (2.1%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 152 (0.7%) Arizona Very Low 1 in 201 (0.5%) Arkansas High* 1 in 36 (2.8%) California Very Low 1 in 484 (0.2%) Colorado Moderate 1 in 49 (2.0%) Connecticut Very High 1 in 24 (4.2%) Delaware Low* 1 in 70 (1.4%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 5,835 (0.0%) Florida Very Low 1 in 284 (0.4%) Georgia Low 1 in 90 (1.1%) Guam Very Low 1 in 687 (0.1%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 874 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 169 (0.6%) Illinois Moderate* 1 in 56 (1.8%) Indiana High* 1 in 34 (2.9%) Iowa Moderate 1 in 41 (2.4%) Kansas...
State CDC Level Actively Infectious Missouri Moderate* 1 in 42 (2.4%) Montana High 1 in 34 (2.9%) Nebraska Very High 1 in 26 (3.9%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 138 (0.7%) New Hampshire High* 1 in 35 (2.9%) New Jersey Low 1 in 82 (1.2%) New Mexico Low 1 in 87 (1.2%) New York Moderate* 1 in 44 (2.3%) North Carolina Low 1 in 82 (1.2%) North Dakota High* 1 in 34 (3.0%) Ohio Very High 1 in 27 (3.7%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 62 (1.6%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 170 (0.6%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 44 (2.3%) Rhode Island Moderate 1 in 41 (2.4%) South Carolina Moderate 1 in 54 (1.9%) South Dakota Very High 1 in...
If like years 1-4 of the pandemic, the winter wave has peaked. If like last year, we could hover near peak levels for a month.

Forecasting quality is low with 1/3 of states having data issues. Hopefully, we'll know a lot more in a few days.

3/4🧵 12 waves
Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 65 (1.5%) New Daily Infections 749,000 Infections the Past Week 5,390,000 Infections in 2026 3,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 4.88 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 37,000 to 150,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 270,000 to 1,080,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting 220 to 370 from New Daily Infections Excess Deaths Resulting ...
year over year graph
forecast
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 5
We told you that 109,000-175,000 Americans would died of COVID (excess deaths) in 2025.

Today, the CDC estimates 101,000 deaths/year (flat from Oct 2022 to Sep 2024), and likely higher when considering more nebulous non-acute excess deaths (heart attack 6 months later).
1/5
The CDC estimates are actually higher than I would have guessed, given their methodology, which models estimates based on easily countable factors in healthcare and expert input on multiplier values. It lends credence to the PMC upper bound of excess deaths of 175,000/yr.
2/5
What's troubling is the CDC has annual mortality flat. My expectation based on mortality displacement and Swiss Re data is that it should be declining. If is stays flat, we're running on something like breast+prostate cancer or lung cancer deaths per year in perpetuity.
3/5
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 31, 2025
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Dec 29, 2025
🧵1/10

Happy New Year's Eve! #nye

Based on today's CDC data, we estimate 1 in 51 Americans are actively infectious with COVlD. That's nearly 1 million new daily infections.

Be wise. Vax up, mask up. #oneofthetwo Heat map from CDC data and PMC estimates.
🧵2/10

Many states are surging presently. True levels are higher than shown in most places due to state-level reporting lags. Alabama Moderate 1 in 46 (2.2%) Alaska Low 1 in 93 (1.1%) Arizona Very Low 1 in 201 (0.5%) Arkansas High* 1 in 32 (3.1%) California Very Low 1 in 351 (0.3%) Colorado Low 1 in 71 (1.4%) Connecticut High 1 in 33 (3.1%) Delaware Low 1 in 90 (1.1%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 300 (0.3%) Florida Very Low 1 in 282 (0.4%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 125 (0.8%) Guam Very Low 1 in 585 (0.2%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 855 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 221 (0.5%) Illinois Moderate 1 in 41 (2.5%) Indiana Very High 1 in 14 (6.9%) Iowa Low 1 in 69 (1.4%) Kansas Moderate 1 in 46 (2.2%) Kentucky High 1 in 34 (2.9...
🧵3/10

Although many states are surging, do not feel false security in "low" level states. For example, NY has terrible reporting quality with the CDC currently. Missouri Moderate* 1 in 56 (1.8%) Montana Low 1 in 76 (1.3%) Nebraska Very High 1 in 18 (5.5%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 122 (0.8%) New Hampshire Moderate* 1 in 42 (2.4%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 113 (0.9%) New Mexico Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) New York Very Low* 1 in 127 (0.8%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 125 (0.8%) North Dakota Moderate* 1 in 43 (2.3%) Ohio High 1 in 28 (3.6%) Oklahoma Very High 1 in 25 (4.0%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 170 (0.6%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Rhode Island Moderate 1 in 41 (2.4%) South Carolina Low 1 in 84 (1.2%) South Dakota High 1 in 33 (3.0%) Tennessee Moder...
Read 10 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 15, 2025
PMC COVID Update, Dec 15, 2025 (U.S.)

In the latest CDC data, 15 states have moderate to very high transmission.
🔹1 in 63 estimated actively infectious nationally, rising fastest in the Midwest & Northeast
🔹Very High: Indiana
🔹High: Nebraska, Vermont, Connecticut

🧵1/9 Heat map from CDC data and PMC estimates of 1 in 63 actively infectious and >700,000 new daily infections, based on wastewater derived estimates using models noted in the Technical Appendix at the website listed in the image.
PMC estimates 1 in 26 people in Indiana are infectious and 1 in 39 in Connecticut.

MI, MS, and AR may have higher levels than shown due to poor reporting.

States AL to MS shown.

🧵2/9 Alabama Moderate 1 in 41 (2.4%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 220 (0.5%) Arizona Very Low 1 in 118 (0.8%) Arkansas Low* 1 in 68 (1.5%) California Very Low 1 in 382 (0.3%) Colorado Very Low* 1 in 230 (0.4%) Connecticut High 1 in 39 (2.6%) Delaware Very Low 1 in 222 (0.4%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 131 (0.8%) Florida Very Low 1 in 320 (0.3%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 275 (0.4%) Guam Very Low 1 in 426 (0.2%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 670 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 108 (0.9%) Illinois Low 1 in 71 (1.4%) Indiana Very High 1 in 26 (3.8%) Iowa Low 1 in 76 (1.3%) Kansas Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) Kentucky Mode...
PMC estimates 1 in 39 are infectious in both Nebraska and Vermont (coincidence, not typo).

Very few NY sites are reporting to the CDC, so use the NYS website there instead.

States MO to WY shown.

🧵3/9 Missouri Low 1 in 80 (1.2%) Montana Very Low 1 in 135 (0.7%) Nebraska High 1 in 39 (2.5%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 225 (0.4%) New Hampshire Moderate 1 in 47 (2.1%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 200 (0.5%) New Mexico Low 1 in 75 (1.3%) New York Moderate* 1 in 49 (2.1%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 226 (0.4%) North Dakota Low* 1 in 85 (1.2%) Ohio Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 47 (2.1%) Oregon Low 1 in 89 (1.1%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 55 (1.8%) Rhode Island Low 1 in 70 (1.4%) South Carolina Very Low 1 in 215 (0.5%) South Dakota Low 1 in 86 (1.2%) Tennessee Moderate 1 in 60 (1.7%) ...
Read 9 tweets

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