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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Jan 16 • 1 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
How are the top science programs handling high COVID-19 transmission, inclusivity, equity, and diversity in January 2025?

🔥Sick policies
🔥Virtual options
🔥High-quality masks supplied/required
🔥ASHRAE-level air cleaning

This is an excerpt of my welcome email to students:This is a "COVID Safe" class that is designed to be cautious, compassionate, inclusive, and equitable by providing extremely strong, evidence based COVID precautions. My goal is for our classroom to be the most COVID-safe indoor in-person learning environment in the state of Louisiana and push our colleagues to do better in other states that more often lead the way, such as Texas, California, NY, NJ, and Connecticut. Anyone entering the classroom will be expected to wear a well-fitting high-quality mask (e.g., N95, KN95, KF94) 100.0% of the time. I will provide many different type...

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 27
BREAKING: COVlD transmission surges across the Northeast amid 11th wave.

CDC levels & PMC prevalence estimates:
🔹CT: Very High (1 in 18 people actively infectious)
🔹RI: High (1 in 33)
🔹NY: High (1 in 35)
🔹MA: High (1 in 37)

Quick thread 🧵 1/7 Heat map from CDC data with PMC prevalence estimates noted in post
#NewYork has "High" transmission statewide & many counties are seeing "Very High" transmission, per CDC.

PMC estimates 1 in 35 people are actively infectious statewide.

A lot of sites are offline, but notice the overall coverage remains strong. Bad picture statewide.
🧵 2/7 Heat map with prevalence estimate, noted in post
In #Connecticut, we estimate 1 in 18 people are actively infectious. The CDC indicates "Very High" levels.

Statewide coverage is good. Assume it's very high risk everywhere.
🧵 3/7 Heat map and pmc estimate
Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 23
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

The CDC reports 29 states & DC are experiencing High or Very High transmission.

The heat map is a patchwork quilt with COVlD levels varying considerably state by state.

Transmission is shifting north + east.
🧵1/8 Heat map: 29 states and DC in high/very high transmission PMC: Estimates 850,000 new daily infections or 1 in 57 people actively infectious
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

COVlD levels by state, AL to MS.

Note that even levels the CDC calls "Low" like Guam at 1.5% actively infectious are at the threshold where I would tell people who have lapsed that it's time to #MaskUp.

🧵2/8 State CDC Level Actively Infectious Alabama Very High 1 in 24 (4.2%) Alaska High 1 in 38 (2.6%) Arizona Low 1 in 101 (1.0%) Arkansas Very High 1 in 25 (4.0%) California Very High 1 in 25 (4.0%) Colorado Moderate 1 in 56 (1.8%) Connecticut Very High 1 in 20 (4.9%) Delaware High 1 in 33 (3.1%) District of Columbia High 1 in 28 (3.6%) Florida Very High 1 in 25 (3.9%) Georgia Moderate 1 in 53 (1.9%) Guam Low 1 in 68 (1.5%) Hawaii Very High 1 in 25 (4.1%) Idaho Very High 1 in 22 (4.6%) Illinois Moderate 1 in 53 (1.9%) Indiana Very High 1 in 18 (5.7%) Iowa Moderate 1 in 56 (1.8%) Kansas High 1 i...
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

COVlD levels by state, Missouri to Wyoming.

New York is a good example of where the CDC label of "Moderate" simply does not cut it. 1 in 49 is very high, and the data quality statewide has been poor.

🧵3/8 State CDC Level Actively Infectious Missouri Very Low 1 in 129 (0.8%) Montana Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Nebraska Very High 1 in 23 (4.3%) Nevada Very High 1 in 12 (8.5%) New Hampshire Low* 1 in 78 (1.3%) New Jersey Low 1 in 96 (1.0%) New Mexico Low 1 in 99 (1.0%) New York Moderate 1 in 49 (2.1%) North Carolina Very High 1 in 26 (3.9%) North Dakota High* 1 in 34 (3.0%) Ohio Moderate 1 in 52 (1.9%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 42 (2.4%) Oregon High 1 in 35 (2.9%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 51 (1.9%) Rhode Island High 1 in 34 (2.9%) South Carolina Very High 1 in 18 (5.7%) South Dakota Very High 1 in ...
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 20
Three years ago, the American public was told in passing that the "pandemic is over."

PMC estimates that since that day, U.S. residents have experienced nearly 1 billion SARS-CoV-2 infections. Specifically, 974,190,702 infections, based on wastewater-derived estimates.

1/5
Far from harmless, recent high-quality data (e.g., PCORnet) suggest each infection leads about 30% of people to experience long-term health sequelae.

Per infection.

Some of these changes will be temporary, and others permanent.

2/5
COVlD is still killing people. It's now less acute. Deaths weeks, months, or years after infection.

Heart attacks. Strokes. Organ failure. A cancer prognosis that suddenly turns from favorable to fatal.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 16
PMC COVlD Report, Sep 15, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/7

COVlD-19 levels are "Very High" or "High" in the majority of states, per the CDC.

This includes 27 states & D.C.

🔥🔥Very High:
Alaska, Hawai'i, California, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, S. Dakota, Nebraska, Texas, Louisiana, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, S. Carolina, N. Carolina, D.C., Maryland, and Connecticut.

🔥High:
Washington state, Oregon, Montana, probably N. Dakota (imputed), Arkansas, Alabama, Virginia, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.

PMC estimates 1 in 38 people (2.7%) are actively infectious. Wastewater-derived case estimates suggest 1.3 million new daily infections.Heat map using CDC levels. Key findings summarized in the post.
PMC COVlD Report, Sep 15, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/7

Transmission is peaking nationally, but regional variation is common. Know what's happening in your state, and get the word out.

Note that the levels CDC calls "low" are still quite alarming.State | CDC Level | PMC Estimate, % Actively Infectious Alabama High 1 in 30 (3.4%) Alaska Very High 1 in 22 (4.6%) Arizona Moderate 1 in 40 (2.5%) Arkansas High 1 in 28 (3.6%) California Very High 1 in 21 (4.8%) Colorado Moderate 1 in 50 (2.0%) Connecticut Very High 1 in 19 (5.3%) Delaware High 1 in 33 (3.0%) District of Columbia Very High 1 in 17 (6.0%) Florida Very High 1 in 24 (4.2%) Georgia Moderate 1 in 46 (2.2%) Guam Low 1 in 64 (1.6%) Hawaii Very High 1 in 26 (3.8%) Idaho Very High 1 in 14 (7.3%) Illinois Moderate 1 in 44 (2.3%) Indiana Very High 1 in 16 (6.1%) Iowa Moderate 1 in 40...
PMC COVlD Report, Sep 15, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/7

Note that transmission is increasingly spreading from the South & West toward other areas. Know your state-level risk.

Transmission remains alarming even in areas CDC labels "Very Low" (e.g., Missouri, estimated 1 in 109). State | CDC Level | PMC Estimate, % Actively Infectious Missouri Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) Montana High 1 in 36 (2.8%) Nebraska Very High 1 in 18 (5.5%) Nevada Very High 1 in 17 (5.9%) New Hampshire Low 1 in 64 (1.6%) New Jersey Moderate 1 in 56 (1.8%) New Mexico Very Low 1 in 106 (0.9%) New York Low 1 in 73 (1.4%) North Carolina Very High 1 in 17 (5.8%) North Dakota High* 1 in 32 (3.2%) Ohio Moderate 1 in 47 (2.1%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 44 (2.3%) Oregon High 1 in 31 (3.2%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 44 (2.3%) Rhode Island High 1 in 30 (3.3%) South Carolina Very High 1 in 15 (6.6%) South D...
Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 13
California COVlD Surge Rages Higher

🔸CDC SARS-CoV-2 wastewater levels "Very High," and up from last week
🔸1 in 21 estimated actively infectious
🔸>250,000 estimated new daily infections statewide

Four figures...
1/4🧵 CDC: Very High: PMC Estimate: 1 in 21 actively infectious
CDC wastewater data in California show COVlD cases increasing from the already "Very High" levels last week.

2/4🧵 Line graph of the past 6 months showing the surge in wastewater viral levels
With an estimated 1 in 21 (or 4.8%) of California residents actively infectious of COVlD, risk increases dramatically in larger and more frequent social gatherings.

Interact with 25 people of average risk of being positive, and that's a >70% chance of exposure.
3/4🧵 How Does Risk Increase with More Social Contacts? Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 4.8% 2 9.4% 3 13.7% 4 17.9% 5 21.8% 6 25.6% 7 29.1% 8 32.5% 9 35.8% 10 38.9% 15 52.2% 20 62.6% 25 70.8% 30 77.1% 35 82.1% 40 86.0% 50 91.5% 75 97.5% 100 99.3% 300 99.9%
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 10
Let's say you're a dairy farmer. You have 100 cows. Each year, about 5 cows die, and another 5 cows are born. Then, along comes a virus. Let's call it "cowvid"...
1/
Let's say "cowvid" wipes out about half the cows over the course of a couple years. Now, you're down to 50 cows....
2/
The local mayor declares "cowvid" to be over. This surprises you as a farmer because 5 of your cows keep dying annually. 5 of 50 instead of 5 out of 100. Seems like more, but you're not a city slicker...
3/
Read 12 tweets

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