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JWeiland Profile picture
@JPWeiland
Jan 17 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Jan 17th update:

Peak has definitely passed. Now I can overlay the observed data until Jan 8 (orange) over my Holiday Season Forecast from Nov 19 (green). Modeled numbers for Jan 17:

🔸515,000 new infections/day
🔸~1 in 65 currently infected
🔸No region surpassed summer peak Image
Before I start to get replies asking if it's really a peak, yes, it 100% is. Ww declined this week, positivity is declining since early Jan, and %ED is further along and shows a very clear drop in all age groups Image
🔹️The newer forecast from Jan 5th 2025 out until the beginning of Feb. We could still see a second wave/wavelet later this winter, but it's too early to know with any confidence. It's been a weird 9 months. Image

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More from @JPWeiland

JWeiland Profile picture
Dec 27, 2024
The sequence from the 2nd severe H5N1 case in North America (Louisiana) has been released, and again, ⚠️has mutations that favor a2,6. Is it simply a coincidence that both severe cases have 2,6 favoring mutations? Or is this an indication of severity with 2,6?
I don't like this. Image
Link to the CDC update: cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotl…
@HelenBranswell wrote about this development further in STAT
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Dec 21, 2024
PSA (again): *Never* use the last 3 or 4 days of WWscan averages. They're always wrong, and I keep seeing this mistake being made. Half the time it's a straight line up or down. The midwest showed a vertical spike a couple days ago then it got reduced by 40% a day later. Image
Image
@WastewaterSCAN is a fantastic resource, but it has an averaging issue in the latest few data points, as they dont have samples from all of their sites yet, so it's not comparing apples to apples. They should consider averaging to tmax-4 days in their algorithm.
By the way here is what the NE looks like with t-5 days Image
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Dec 16, 2024
Dec 16th update:

Increasing numbers this week as the holiday season kicks in. I believe the prior week was undersampled and this week was oversampled. ED data shows a slower rise over 2 wks (next post)

🔸286,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 112 people currently infected Image
Emergency department data is currently 5 more days up to date than WW, and the trend looks quite different. Slow, steady increases. The reality may lie somewhere between them. I didn't post a WW update last week because I thought the decrease was a mirage. Image
Either way, we are still over 3x lower on case levels than the prior two years at this time. But we are getting back to moderate levels of spread- just not the large surge we are used to at this time.

I have kept my calibration consistent.
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Dec 10, 2024
Updated December-Early January Forecast:

Given recent data, the expected peak has decreased even further, and the range has shrunk.

This is now guaranteed to be a record low for Holiday infection rates, hospitalization, and deaths. Image
A comparison of Holiday surge estimates from 2020 to 2024 shows just how unusual this prediction is. Image
I've explained the reasons for this anomaly over the past month. After the appearance of highly divergent Pirola, we had a ton of new escape mutations that led to a summer wave, infecting most of the susceptable populations. Evolution shut off suddenly after, with only...
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Nov 16, 2024
Ok, this is actually concerning. The sequence of the hospitalized teen with H5N1 has been released. Both of these mutation sites are known to impact α2,6 binding that is needed for human to human transmissibility.

Need top experts on H5N1 to immediately to look into this.
⚠️The right mutations at these sites can, on paper, significantly increase h-h transmission. That's why there needs to be immediate focus on this sample. It's somewhat unclear if the mutations occurred in this patient or prior to their infection.
It is also concerning that this is the first severe case we've had in North America out of many now. Is it a coincidence that these potentially h-h supporting mutations are linked to the most severe outcome?
Read 5 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Oct 19, 2024
FYI:
All of the news stories of the sudden jump in severity of XEC comes from a dentist in the UK (Dr. Snieguole Geige) who most likely does not even know that it's only been 1/6 infections over the past month.

It's nearly impossible to judge any severity change this early. Image
Image
This is not a knock for dentist speaking about covid. This is not my day job either. Sci/docs have made important contributions studying this virus even though it's outside their field. The issue:
🔸️Big claim
🔸️No data in hand
🔸️No evidence this Dr studies covid
Take for example @LongDesertTrain . A high school physics teacher who used his skill sets to become one of the top mutational experts in the world. He has demonstrated for years a high level of expertise and measured analysis on Covid unmc.edu/healthsecurity…
Read 4 tweets

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