Approaching Trump's inauguration, this is *probably* the zenith of conservative influence in pop culture and society over the last 30 years, despite Trump's relatively slim victory of 1.5%.
The movement may last. But I *suspect* people are overconfident here. 🧵
The movement may last. But I *suspect* people are overconfident here. 🧵
To begin with, it is unquestionably true that public opinion has shifted *sharply* to the right on a host of issues over the last four years — transgender rights, immigration, and even "coolness" (zoomers are way less Dem than millennials were, and tech is lining up behind Trump) 
The thing is, though, that I can recall so many good examples of majorities being rebuked because they either misread the moment, the mandate, or the public's true desire.
When people find out what policies would entail, for example, support craters.
When people find out what policies would entail, for example, support craters.
https://x.com/ryanodonnellpa/status/1880651286951129478
The period right after a major public victory is *usually* when a party seems invincible. Nothing they say can be wrong, the opposition is doomed forever and roiled by infighting, the majority begins dreaming of a decade of control, and the winning seems endless.
Like Democrats in 2021, the GOP are now operating under the illusion of "we can do whatever we want, because we just beat these guys".
But here's the thing: parties don't just exist to push ideas. They exist as ways for the public to express sentiments — and usually opposition.
But here's the thing: parties don't just exist to push ideas. They exist as ways for the public to express sentiments — and usually opposition.
Voters push back on change. The GOP won 2021 despite not pivoting, mostly because the public used them to rebel against an unpopular Biden. (Is Trump going to be popular in Oct. 2025?)
They underperformed in 2022 because the public saw Dobbs as a GOP-backed unpopular change.
They underperformed in 2022 because the public saw Dobbs as a GOP-backed unpopular change.
It's rare to get a mandate for sweeping policy change. I don't think a 1.5% popular vote victory and a 220-215 House majority qualifies.
Maybe I'm wrong. But I suspect that a lot of the luster surrounding this administration is going to evaporate when they start *doing* things.
Maybe I'm wrong. But I suspect that a lot of the luster surrounding this administration is going to evaporate when they start *doing* things.
When an administration loses its luster, its most public priorities *also* start becoming unpopular, mostly by association (but also due to the effects). The Biden era showed this with a host of things. So did Obama and Bush.
This is part of the deal with thermostatic backlash.
This is part of the deal with thermostatic backlash.
Reagan is cited as a good example of "the movement grows", but Reagan was mostly just a function of a great economy. Republicans had a pretty poor 1982 midterm, many voters didn't want him to run again, and his ideas got way less popular over his term.
https://x.com/davidshor/status/1597199753053290498
Now, the economy could just be great in 2028, which means the next GOP nominee would have a solid springboard. But that's functionally a bit different from "what is going to happen over the next four years?", and I suspect the current right-wing movement will lose some luster.
Lastly, public losses can often degrade the view of the movement, almost like a feedback loop, and the GOP are beginning with 3 handicaps in 2026:
1) They're the party in power.
2) They want to do a lot of big things.
3) Their voters are flaky and don't turn out in off-years.
1) They're the party in power.
2) They want to do a lot of big things.
3) Their voters are flaky and don't turn out in off-years.
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