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The Kobeissi Letter

Jan 19 • 12 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X

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What just happened?

Melania Trump, the First Lady of the US, just launched her own memecoin, $MELANIA.

Less than 48 hours ago, Donald Trump launched $TRUMP which just erased $7.5 BILLION in market cap in 10 MINUTES.

Wondering what happened? Let us explain.

(a thread)

At 4:13 PM ET, Melania Trump made the below post launching her memecoin.

Just minutes later, Donald Trump reposted the post himself, while at his Victory Rally.

All of a sudden, buyer demand collapsed in Donald Trump's memecoin, $TRUMP, and supply surged.

Moments later, we posted on X that the coin had launched.

Prior to Donald Trump reposting her announcement, $TRUMP was little changed.

After the repost and our breaking news post, $TRUMP fell -55% in minutes.

Consider turning on @KobeissiLetter notifications.

Prior to the launch of $MELANIA, buyers had FAR outweighed sellers in $TRUMP.

Leading into the Melania launch, there had been ~38,500 sellers for every ~13,300 buyers.

That's effectively ~3 sellers for every buyer in this market.

This is why price kept on rising.

In the moments after the launch of $MELANIA, we saw seller volume FAR outweigh buying volume.

In 1 hour, there was $352 million of seller volume for just $245 million of buyer volume.

The ratio of buyers to sellers fell to just 1.3x which led to a massive crash in price.

Here's where it gets even more interesting:

In the minutes around the launch of Melania Trump's token, we saw MASSIVE sell orders in $TRUMP.

As seen in the flow log below, there were multiple $1+ million and $5+ million single sales in $TRUMP

Did someone know?

The selling pressure was so strong that Solana, $SOL, the cryptocurrency itself, fell nearly 20% in minutes.

The trade went from a rush to the entrance to a rush to the exit.

Across all memecoins, well over $10 billion in market cap was erased in the minutes after launch.

Currently, there are a record 824,017 holders of Donald Trump's memecoin, $TRUMP.

The question becomes, will these memecoin investors hold on?

Over the last 24 hours, we have now seen well over $2 billion in volume in this coin.

Momentum is a key component in these coins.

Donald Trump's 800 million $TRUMP coins lost ~$25 billion in value after the announcement.

Since then, it has rebounded slightly with his coins worth ~$39 billion.

These coins are locked on a vesting schedule that will take 3 years to fully vest.

Trump needs prices to hold.

This image will go down in history.

On the day before inauguration, the launch of Melania Trump's memecoin has shocked the market.

We are bracing for severe volatility in all financial markets ahead.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

Many are asking where $TRUMP can be traded.

The coin was launched on "Moonshot," which President-elect Trump mentioned.

These investments are highly risky, exercise caution, this is NOT an endorsement.

Access Moonshot at the link below:

bit.ly/42lEQDu

What's the next memecoin that's launching?

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More from @KobeissiLetter

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Mar 14

THE $20 TRILLION GOLD CALL:

Hours ago, one of our biggest calls of 2024 officially came to fruition: gold prices hit a RECORD $3,000/oz.

In just 13 months, gold has added +$7 TRILLION of market cap, now worth a record $20 TRILLION.

How did we get here?

(a thread)

To put this into perspective:

Gold is now a $20.2 TRILLION asset, the single most valuable asset in the world.

If you combine the remaining 9 assets in the top 10, the total comes out to $19.6 trillion.

Gold is worth more than the remaining top 10 assets COMBINED.

In mid-2024, we began calling for a major breakout in gold prices, constantly raising our price target.

In September 2024, we knew gold was ready for a run to $3,000+.

The first sign?

Gold's unprecedented relative performance, rising with both rates AND the US Dollar.

Read 14 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Mar 13

It's official:

The S&P 500 just CLOSED in correction territory and the Nasdaq 100 is 7% away from its first bear market since 2022.

Over the last 16 trading days, the S&P 500 has erased an average of -$340 billion PER trading day.

Here's what you need to know.

(a thread)

Let's begin with an updated timeline.

While the trade war ramped up into February 1st, the market PEAKED on February 19th.

Even as more tariffs went live in early-March, the real turning point was March 6th.

This was when Trump said he's "not watching the stock market."

Dip buyers have been crushed in this downturn.

The S&P 500 has not seen a back-to-back gains for 15 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since April 2024.

This is also the 5th longest stretch since the 2020 pandemic.

Market uncertainty is at its highest since 2020.

Read 15 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Mar 13

It's very clear what's happening:

President Trump now believes "short term pain" is his ONLY option to lower inflation and refinance $9+ trillion of US debt.

We have seen over -$5 TRILLION erased from US stocks with the goal of LOWERING rates.

Will it work?

(a thread)

Based on our research, President Trump made this conclusion BEFORE inauguration.

However, he began formally articulating it on March 6th.

Below is the headline that destroyed investor confidence in 2025.

President Trump is no longer the "stock market's President" (for now).

On March 9th, President Trump further confirmed this shift in mentality.

He acknowledged we are in a "period of transition" and it will "take a little time."

This was the next piece of evidence that President Trump is truly not concerned about a crash in asset prices.

Read 15 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Mar 12

Gold prices are SURGING:

As the S&P 500 has erased $5+ trillion, gold is now set to cross above a record $20 TRILLION in market cap.

Gold has more than QUADRUPLED the S&P 500's return over the last 12 months.

Gold is telling us something. Let us explain.

(a thread)

Gold has CRUSHED most asset classes over the last 12 months.

In fact, while the S&P 500 has risen +11% since March 2024, gold is up nearly +44%.

And, while the S&P 500 is down -5% YTD, gold is officially up over +10% YTD.

Is this the strongest gold market in history?

Historically speaking, gold prices are viewed as a safe haven that rises with a weaker Dollar and lower rates.

However, for MONTHS now, gold has risen with high rates, a historically strong US Dollar, and a strong stock market.

This defies just about ALL historical trends.

Read 12 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Mar 11

The case for a SHORT SQUEEZE:

Since February 19th, the S&P 500 has erased -$5 TRILLION in its most one-sided move since the 2022 bear market.

Total PUT option volumes have surged to a record 30+ MILLION contracts over the last 5 days.

Is a short squeeze coming?

(a thread)

In just 14 trading days, the Nasdaq 100 has now fallen a whopping -12.5%.

The S&P 500 was trading at all time highs less than 3 weeks ago.

The recent one-sided nature of the stock market's decline is rarely sustainable over the long-term.

We think the SHORT trade is crowded.

Take a look at institutional positioning in the lead up to this decline.

Heading into 2025, hedge fund exposure to Magnificent 7 stocks fell to a 22-month low.

We saw a colossal divergence between the Nasdaq 100 and fund positioning for the first time since the 2022 drop.

Read 16 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Mar 11

Morgan Stanley with a MASSIVE call:

As Tesla's stock, $TSLA, falls below its November 5th low, MS is calling for a HISTORIC rally to $800 next.

This would imply a +300% rally which they say can happen within 12 MONTHS.

Here's how they see it happening.

(a thread)

Let's begin with some context:

Between November 5th and December 17th, Tesla, $TSLA, rallied a massive +91%.

The stock hit a record market cap of $1.5 trillion before falling below $400/share as the trade war began.

In 1 month, $TSLA is down -33% to pre-election levels.

Morgan Stanley thinks this is a huge buying opportunity.

They specifically note that this is an AI play as Tesla is an "embodied AI compounder."

MS believes that the recent drop is due to negative brand sentiment just as much as fundamental sales data and market de-grossing.

Read 11 tweets

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