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The Kobeissi Letter

Jan 19 • 12 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X

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What just happened?

Melania Trump, the First Lady of the US, just launched her own memecoin, $MELANIA.

Less than 48 hours ago, Donald Trump launched $TRUMP which just erased $7.5 BILLION in market cap in 10 MINUTES.

Wondering what happened? Let us explain.

(a thread)

At 4:13 PM ET, Melania Trump made the below post launching her memecoin.

Just minutes later, Donald Trump reposted the post himself, while at his Victory Rally.

All of a sudden, buyer demand collapsed in Donald Trump's memecoin, $TRUMP, and supply surged.

Moments later, we posted on X that the coin had launched.

Prior to Donald Trump reposting her announcement, $TRUMP was little changed.

After the repost and our breaking news post, $TRUMP fell -55% in minutes.

Consider turning on @KobeissiLetter notifications.

Prior to the launch of $MELANIA, buyers had FAR outweighed sellers in $TRUMP.

Leading into the Melania launch, there had been ~38,500 sellers for every ~13,300 buyers.

That's effectively ~3 sellers for every buyer in this market.

This is why price kept on rising.

In the moments after the launch of $MELANIA, we saw seller volume FAR outweigh buying volume.

In 1 hour, there was $352 million of seller volume for just $245 million of buyer volume.

The ratio of buyers to sellers fell to just 1.3x which led to a massive crash in price.

Here's where it gets even more interesting:

In the minutes around the launch of Melania Trump's token, we saw MASSIVE sell orders in $TRUMP.

As seen in the flow log below, there were multiple $1+ million and $5+ million single sales in $TRUMP

Did someone know?

The selling pressure was so strong that Solana, $SOL, the cryptocurrency itself, fell nearly 20% in minutes.

The trade went from a rush to the entrance to a rush to the exit.

Across all memecoins, well over $10 billion in market cap was erased in the minutes after launch.

Currently, there are a record 824,017 holders of Donald Trump's memecoin, $TRUMP.

The question becomes, will these memecoin investors hold on?

Over the last 24 hours, we have now seen well over $2 billion in volume in this coin.

Momentum is a key component in these coins.

Donald Trump's 800 million $TRUMP coins lost ~$25 billion in value after the announcement.

Since then, it has rebounded slightly with his coins worth ~$39 billion.

These coins are locked on a vesting schedule that will take 3 years to fully vest.

Trump needs prices to hold.

This image will go down in history.

On the day before inauguration, the launch of Melania Trump's memecoin has shocked the market.

We are bracing for severe volatility in all financial markets ahead.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

Many are asking where $TRUMP can be traded.

The coin was launched on "Moonshot," which President-elect Trump mentioned.

These investments are highly risky, exercise caution, this is NOT an endorsement.

Access Moonshot at the link below:

bit.ly/42lEQDu

What's the next memecoin that's launching?

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More from @KobeissiLetter

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Dec 18

What just happened?

Core CPI inflation in the US just unexpectedly fell to 2.6%, its LOWEST level since March 2021.

3 months ago, inflation rose to a 6-month high, and last month, the October CPI inflation report was "cancelled."

What changed? Let us explain.

(a thread)

At first glance, this looks like one of the best inflation reports in years.

The 40 bps drop in headline and core inflation is one of the largest YoY declines since 2023.

And, this comes as core inflation was expected to INCREASE.

It also comes at an interesting time.

Last month, the US cancelled the October CPI inflation report.

They cited "a lapse in appropriations" which prevented data from being collected during the government shutdown.

Why is this important?

It means the BLS had to make tons of assumptions for last month's data.

Read 12 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Dec 8

The elephant in the room:

There have now been 1.2 MILLION job cuts announced in 2025. And, 60% of Americans say we are in a recession.

Yet, the S&P 500 has added +$17 TRILLION since April, nearing its 29th record high of 2025.

What's happening? Let us explain.

(a thread)

US layoffs currently set to match levels seen in the 2008 Financial Crisis.

US employers have announced 1,170,821 job cuts in 2025, the 2nd-highest total in 16 years.

In November, US employers announced 71,321 job cuts.

This is the 3rd HIGHEST monthly total ever recorded.

And, it's impacting ALL demographics.

Unemployed Americans with 4-year college degrees now make up a record 25.3% of total unemployment.

The percentage has doubled since the 2008 Crisis and is above 2020 levels.

The US labor market is weakening across all education levels.

Read 12 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Nov 20

What just happened?

In its fastest reversal since "Liberation Day," the S&P 500 just lost -$2 TRILLION of market cap in 5 hours.

Nvidia went from +6% to -3% after reporting RECORD revenue of $55 billion without ANY new headlines.

Why did this happen?

Let us explain.

Here was the S&P 500's heat map at the open today.

After Nvidia, $NVDA, crushed earnings reporting record quarterly revenue of $55 billion, stocks were deep green.

The Nasdaq 100 was on track for its largest daily gain since May 2025.

Then, at 10:30 AM ET, everything changed.

As shown below, the S&P 500 went from +130 points to down -50 points in a matter of minutes.

One would expect that a market moving headline came out.

But, nothing new happened aside from an 11:20 AM headline that the BLS is releasing the November jobs report on December 16.

Read 12 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Nov 16

What is happening in crypto?

Over the last 41 days, crypto has erased -$1.1 trillion in market cap, or -$27 billion PER DAY.

Crypto market cap is now ~10% BELOW levels seen during the record -$19 billion liquidation on October 10th.

This is a structural move. Let us explain.

This decline has been strange for one key reason:

There haven't been many material bearish developments on the fundamental side of crypto.

Just days ago, President Trump said America being "number one in crypto" is his top priority.

Yet, Bitcoin is down -25% in one month.

It also appears to be a structural and mechanical downturn.

It all began with institutional outflows in mid-to-late October.

In the first week of November, crypto funds saw -$1.2 billion of outflows.

The problem becomes excessive levels of leverage AMID these outflows.

Read 12 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Nov 9

Stimulus checks are back:

President Trump just announced the "tariff dividend," a payment of AT LEAST $2,000 per American.

We expect 85%+ of US adults to receive this, resulting in $400+ BILLION handed out.

All as US debt nears $40 trillion.

What's next? Let us explain.

This morning, President Trump made the below announcement:

A dividend of at least $2,000 per person will be paid, EXCLUDING "high income people."

The economic implications of such a massive "stimulus"-like payment are huge.

Especially with markets at record highs.

First, who will be receiving this payment?

Let's take a look at the most recent stimulus payment, the March 2021 $1,400 stimulus check.

Full payments were only made to:

Single filers making up to $75,000, households making up to $112,500, and married earners up to $150,000.

Read 12 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Nov 7

The US government shutdown is expanding:

Today, the FAA officially began cutting 700 flights PER DAY across 40 airports.

Airports are now facing a shortage of 3,500 air traffic controllers with 4+ MILLION passengers impacted.

What happens next?

Let us explain.

Today, the US government shutdown officially enters day 38.

This marks the longest shutdown in US history and nearly 5 TIMES the average.

But, today also marks the first day that the shutdown has gone "mainstream."

The FAA has announced flight cancellations beginning today.

Below is a map of the 40 airports impacted.

More than 700 US flights were canceled as of 9 AM ET today.

The FAA announced that 10% of flights may be canceled until the end of the shutdown.

So far, 4 MILLION travelers have been impacted by cancellations and delays.

Read 11 tweets

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