The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Jan 19 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
What just happened?

Melania Trump, the First Lady of the US, just launched her own memecoin, $MELANIA.

Less than 48 hours ago, Donald Trump launched $TRUMP which just erased $7.5 BILLION in market cap in 10 MINUTES.

Wondering what happened? Let us explain.

(a thread)
At 4:13 PM ET, Melania Trump made the below post launching her memecoin.

Just minutes later, Donald Trump reposted the post himself, while at his Victory Rally.

All of a sudden, buyer demand collapsed in Donald Trump's memecoin, $TRUMP, and supply surged. Image
Moments later, we posted on X that the coin had launched.

Prior to Donald Trump reposting her announcement, $TRUMP was little changed.

After the repost and our breaking news post, $TRUMP fell -55% in minutes.

Consider turning on @KobeissiLetter notifications. Image
Prior to the launch of $MELANIA, buyers had FAR outweighed sellers in $TRUMP.

Leading into the Melania launch, there had been ~38,500 sellers for every ~13,300 buyers.

That's effectively ~3 sellers for every buyer in this market.

This is why price kept on rising. Image
In the moments after the launch of $MELANIA, we saw seller volume FAR outweigh buying volume.

In 1 hour, there was $352 million of seller volume for just $245 million of buyer volume.

The ratio of buyers to sellers fell to just 1.3x which led to a massive crash in price. Image
Here's where it gets even more interesting:

In the minutes around the launch of Melania Trump's token, we saw MASSIVE sell orders in $TRUMP.

As seen in the flow log below, there were multiple $1+ million and $5+ million single sales in $TRUMP

Did someone know? Image
The selling pressure was so strong that Solana, $SOL, the cryptocurrency itself, fell nearly 20% in minutes.

The trade went from a rush to the entrance to a rush to the exit.

Across all memecoins, well over $10 billion in market cap was erased in the minutes after launch. Image
Currently, there are a record 824,017 holders of Donald Trump's memecoin, $TRUMP.

The question becomes, will these memecoin investors hold on?

Over the last 24 hours, we have now seen well over $2 billion in volume in this coin.

Momentum is a key component in these coins. Image
Donald Trump's 800 million $TRUMP coins lost ~$25 billion in value after the announcement.

Since then, it has rebounded slightly with his coins worth ~$39 billion.

These coins are locked on a vesting schedule that will take 3 years to fully vest.

Trump needs prices to hold. Image
This image will go down in history.

On the day before inauguration, the launch of Melania Trump's memecoin has shocked the market.

We are bracing for severe volatility in all financial markets ahead.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. Image
Many are asking where $TRUMP can be traded.

The coin was launched on "Moonshot," which President-elect Trump mentioned.

These investments are highly risky, exercise caution, this is NOT an endorsement.

Access Moonshot at the link below:

bit.ly/42lEQDu
What's the next memecoin that's launching?

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More from @KobeissiLetter

May 25
What is happening in Japan?

In 45 days, Japan's 30Y Government Bond Yield rose a MASSIVE +100 basis points, to a record 3.20%.

Over $500 BILLION worth of "safe" 40Y Japanese Government Bonds have lost 20%+ in 6 weeks.

Is Japan's bond market imploding?

(a thread) Image
What's happening in Japan is not "normal."

Japan's 40Y government bond that was yielding ~1.3% two years ago is now yielding 3.5%.

As yields continue to surge, inflation has begun to rebound and Japan's economy is decline.

It appears Japan is entering a recession. Image
The surge all began when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a major policy shift.

After years after BUYING bonds, the BOJ stopped doing so.

This resulted in much more bond supply hitting the market, which drove yields higher.

And, the BOJ has a colossal balance sheet still. Image
Read 15 tweets
May 23
The trade war is back:

After a brief pause, Trump just threatened 50% tariffs on the EU beginning June 1st and 25% tariffs on Apple.

In 5 days, the S&P 500 has erased -$1.5 trillion of market cap.

What's next? Here's why you NEED to watch the bond market.

(a thread) Image
First, at 7:19 AM ET today, President Trump made the below post.

As Apple, $AAPL, has moved iPhone production to India, Trump said this was not acceptable.

Trump says iPhones must be made in the USA or face tariffs of at least 25%.

The S&P 500 to 5820 on this news. Image
24 minutes later, President Trump made the below post.

He said he is "recommended a straight 50% tariff on the EU, staring June 1st."

This was the first escalation since the 90-day tariff pause and it sent S&P 500 futures down to 5750.

But, why now? Image
Read 13 tweets
May 21
What just happened?

At 1:00 PM ET, the S&P 500 fell nearly -80 points in 30 minutes without any major "news."

What actually happened was a weak 20Y Bond Auction which sent US Treasury Yields soaring.

Investors MUST watch yields here. Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
The US frequently conducts bond auctions, where investors can buy US Treasuries (debt).

Today, the US conducted a $16B auction of 20Y Bonds.

Typically, these auctions happen with minimal impact on markets.

However, today was different which sent yields soaring. Image
Today was different because demand for the bond auction was weak.

In other words, investors wanted to buy these bonds for LESS than initially expected.

The high yield came in at 5.047%, well above expectations of 5.035%.

When bond prices fall, yields rise, as we just saw. Image
Read 14 tweets
May 17
It's official:

For the first time in history, Moody's has downgraded the United States' credit rating.

Moody's cites concerns over soaring US debt levels with interest on US debt set to hit 30% of REVENUE by 2035.

What does it all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
This isn't the first time the US has seen a credit rating downgrade.

In 2011, S&P downgraded the US' credit rating from AAA to AA+.

As seen below, the downgrade came with an ~8% drop in the S&P 500 in 2 months.

The 10Y Yield fell as much as ~35% within the first 2 months. Image
In 2023, Fitch downgraded the US' long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+.

They cited concerns over rising US debt levels, unaddressed fiscal challenges, and Fed rate hikes.

This seemed to pave the path for the historic Moody's downgrade that we just received. Image
Read 13 tweets
May 5
Gold won't stop.

Gold is surging again, now trading above $3,300/oz, even as the S&P 500 is up +17% from its April 7th low.

Since 2020, the gold ETF, $GLD, has now OUTPERFORMED the S&P 500 by 35 percentage points.

Are you still watching gold?

(a thread) Image
Heading into 2025, $GLD was underperforming the S&P 500 since 2020 by ~10%.

However, as uncertainty has risen, $GLD is now up +109% since 2020 compared to +74% in the S&P 500.

But, why are gold prices surging even as the market recovers?

Uncertainty remains the answer. Image
The equity market's rebound has been a product of SENTIMENT.

The Fear & Greed index is up ~54 points since its April 2025 low.

However, we have not seen a material reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty.

Equity and gold markets are telling two different near-term stories. Image
Read 12 tweets
May 3
This is insane:

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just announced they now hold a record $348 BILLION in cash.

Since 2022, Buffett's cash balance is up $239 BILLION and he has net SOLD stocks for 10-straight quarters.

What does Warren Buffett see here?

(a thread) Image
Below is Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet:

They now hold $305.5 BILLION of US Treasury Bills and $36.9 billion of cash in their insurance and other business.

In their Railroad, Utilities and Energy business, they hold another ~$5.3 billion of cash.

This is unprecedented. Image
To put this in perspective, the US Federal Reserve currently holds $195.3 billion in US Treasury Bills.

This means that Berkshire Hathaway now holds ~$110.2 billion MORE of T-bills than the Fed.

Berkshire Hathaway's T-bill balance is ~56% HIGHER than the Fed itself. Image
Read 12 tweets

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