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The Kobeissi Letter

Jan 19 • 12 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X

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What just happened?

Melania Trump, the First Lady of the US, just launched her own memecoin, $MELANIA.

Less than 48 hours ago, Donald Trump launched $TRUMP which just erased $7.5 BILLION in market cap in 10 MINUTES.

Wondering what happened? Let us explain.

(a thread)

At 4:13 PM ET, Melania Trump made the below post launching her memecoin.

Just minutes later, Donald Trump reposted the post himself, while at his Victory Rally.

All of a sudden, buyer demand collapsed in Donald Trump's memecoin, $TRUMP, and supply surged.

Moments later, we posted on X that the coin had launched.

Prior to Donald Trump reposting her announcement, $TRUMP was little changed.

After the repost and our breaking news post, $TRUMP fell -55% in minutes.

Consider turning on @KobeissiLetter notifications.

Prior to the launch of $MELANIA, buyers had FAR outweighed sellers in $TRUMP.

Leading into the Melania launch, there had been ~38,500 sellers for every ~13,300 buyers.

That's effectively ~3 sellers for every buyer in this market.

This is why price kept on rising.

In the moments after the launch of $MELANIA, we saw seller volume FAR outweigh buying volume.

In 1 hour, there was $352 million of seller volume for just $245 million of buyer volume.

The ratio of buyers to sellers fell to just 1.3x which led to a massive crash in price.

Here's where it gets even more interesting:

In the minutes around the launch of Melania Trump's token, we saw MASSIVE sell orders in $TRUMP.

As seen in the flow log below, there were multiple $1+ million and $5+ million single sales in $TRUMP

Did someone know?

The selling pressure was so strong that Solana, $SOL, the cryptocurrency itself, fell nearly 20% in minutes.

The trade went from a rush to the entrance to a rush to the exit.

Across all memecoins, well over $10 billion in market cap was erased in the minutes after launch.

Currently, there are a record 824,017 holders of Donald Trump's memecoin, $TRUMP.

The question becomes, will these memecoin investors hold on?

Over the last 24 hours, we have now seen well over $2 billion in volume in this coin.

Momentum is a key component in these coins.

Donald Trump's 800 million $TRUMP coins lost ~$25 billion in value after the announcement.

Since then, it has rebounded slightly with his coins worth ~$39 billion.

These coins are locked on a vesting schedule that will take 3 years to fully vest.

Trump needs prices to hold.

This image will go down in history.

On the day before inauguration, the launch of Melania Trump's memecoin has shocked the market.

We are bracing for severe volatility in all financial markets ahead.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

Many are asking where $TRUMP can be traded.

The coin was launched on "Moonshot," which President-elect Trump mentioned.

These investments are highly risky, exercise caution, this is NOT an endorsement.

Access Moonshot at the link below:

bit.ly/42lEQDu

What's the next memecoin that's launching?

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More from @KobeissiLetter

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Jan 19

WOW.

Donald Trump’s memecoin, $TRUMP, DOUBLED overnight and is currently trading up more than +28,000% in 36 HOURS.

The coin is now up more than the S&P 500 has returned since 1971, or 54 YEARS of returns.

Why did it double overnight? Let us explain.

(a thread)

The coin is officially trading above $75 for the first time in history.

This puts the total market cap at $15 BILLION with over $2 billion in volume in 24 hours.

Between 12:00 AM ET and 6:00 AM ET prices doubled in $TRUMP.

What happened during the overnight session?

We started seeing a large ratio of buyers to sellers after 12:00 AM ET.

Over the last 24 hours, there have now been ~38,500 seller for every ~13,300 buyers.

That's effectively ~3 sellers for every buyer in this market.

$1.1 billion of buy volume for $850 million of sales.

Read 14 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Jan 18

What just happened?

At 9:44 PM ET on a casual Friday night, president-elect Trump launched the biggest memecoin in history, $TRUMP.

Since then, the coin is up 9,500% with $2.2 BILLION of volume traded in under 12 hours.

What does this all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread)

The initial launch of the coin was so hard to believe, it came with skepticism.

Traders figured Donald Trump's account was hacked.

However, no statement on a hack surfaced so the coin kept rising.

At 12:45 AM ET, $TRUMP broke above $10.00 and the rally accelerated rapidly.

In fact, not even Elon Musk was sure that Donald Trump's X account had not been hacked.

Nearly 12 hours later, it is clear that this coin is legitimately launched by Trump.

Donald Trump is now the first president in history to launch a memecoin.

Read 14 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Jan 15

The housing market is frozen:

Mortgage demand in the US has fallen to its lowest level since 1995, according to Reventure.

Since the peak seen less than 4 years ago, US mortgage applications are down a MASSIVE -63%.

Homebuyers are officially giving up.

(a thread)

US housing affordability has never been worse:

The annual income needed to buy the median-value home in the US risen to a record $109,564.

This value has DOUBLED in just 4 years.

Currently, the median US household income is $83,431, or $26,133 less than required.

To put this into perspective, at the 2006 housing bubble peak this difference was ~$10,000, or 2.6x less.

The gap between income needed to buy a home and annual income has never been larger.

This means that housing payments as a % of median income are now HIGHER than 2006.

Read 13 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Jan 15

The Los Angeles real estate market needs to be investigated:

Some landlords have raised rent prices by as much as 600%+ AFTER the LA wildfires began.

By law, landlords cannot raise rent prices by more than 10% during a state of emergency.

What is happening here?

(a thread)

As the wildfires roar on, AccuWeather has raised damage and economic loss estimates to $250-$275 billion.

On January 7th, California Governor Newsom called a state of emergency.

This puts into effect a series of laws that otherwise would not be applicable.

Under a state of emergency in California, rent increases are raised.

Penal Code Section 396 states that rent increases are limited to "No more than 10% above pre-emergency levels."

This is for BOTH existing and new leases in an effort to avoid price-gouging.

Read 10 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Jan 14

Something doesn't add up here:

Today, PPI inflation data came in BELOW expectations but the 10-year note yield hit a new 14-month high of 4.82%.

Many are confused, doesn't lower than expected inflation mean lower rates?

Bond markets are concerned. Let us explain.

(a thread)

This morning, December PPI inflation came in at 3.3%, which marked an increase from November.

However, it was below expectations of 3.5% while Core CPI rose to 3.5%, below expectations of 3.8%.

As seen below, the 10-year note yield surged on the news.

Why did this happen?

Over the last 3 years, lower than expected inflation data meant lower interest rates.

That is, more rate cuts or less rate hikes are likely if inflation is cooler than expected.

However, we have evidence that inflation expectations are only a SMALL part of the run in yields.

Read 13 tweets

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Jan 13

Did powerlines cause the Los Angeles wildfires?

Edison International stock, $EIX, the parent company of Southern CA Edison, is currently crashing.

It's now down -30% since the fires began, erasing $10 BILLION of market cap.

Could this be the next big bankruptcy?

(a thread)

Shares of Edison International hit a fresh 24-month low today and continue to drop.

This came after the company reported it was asked to "preserve evidence" in connection with the Eaton fire.

Despite their preliminary analysis indicating no issues, they are receiving notices.

The market is clearly concerned that these fires began with a power issue.

In a CNBC interview, the CEO just said they received "incident reports" for the Hurst & Eaton fires.

However, he maintained that they "did not detect any electrical anomalies from [their] equipment."