Blue Origin makes orbit on the first try, Starship faces on its seventh. ASTS has a flurry of FCC paperwork as ISRO seems to be gearing up for more business. That and more on The Weekly...
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Despite plans to launch additional satellites this year, it is unlikely that consumers will be accessing AST signals (initially via AT&T and Verizon) much before the end of 2026. India’s ISRO will launch at least one satellite (probably in March) while SpaceX is contracted to launch four AST satellites around August this year and another four around October. Blue Origin is expected to launch eight satellites for AST around December this year.
What's happening in India seems to be something bigger…the country is accelerating now that they have a prestige US customer, and that customer is getting paths to lower inclination orbits
1. The fear of falling behind China is massive. Enormous government support and funding for Space will only accelerate. 2. Satellites specifically represent our greatest opportunity to win the next 50 years due to connectivity and information warfare in countries coming under Chinese control. 3. The unanimous feedback from the Ukrainian theater is that the most important technology to the war effort is the connectivity provided by Starlink.
New Glenn safely reached its intended orbit during today's NG-1 mission, accomplishing our primary objective. The second stage is in its final orbit following two successful burns of the BE-3U engines. The Blue Ring Pathfinder is receiving data and performing well. We lost the booster during descent. We knew landing the first stage on the first try was ambitious. We'll learn, refine, and apply that knowledge to our next launch in the spring. We're thrilled with today's outcome. More: bit.ly/4hj8q0o
As of now, Starship has not yet deployed a payload to orbit. While some test flights have made significant progress toward achieving orbital velocity and testing the system's capabilities, none of the missions have successfully delivered a payload into orbit.
1. First Flight Test (April 20, 2023)
Did it reach orbit? No.
Payload: None.
Details: Multiple engine failures on the Super Heavy booster led to loss of control. Starship did not reach stage separation and was destroyed via the flight termination system.
2. Second Flight Test (November 18, 2023)
Did it reach orbit? No.
Payload: None.
Details: Both the booster and Starship exploded during the flight. The Super Heavy booster failed during its boostback burn, and the Starship vehicle was destroyed shortly after.
3. Third Flight Test (March 14, 2024)
Did it reach orbit? No, but it achieved orbital velocity before losing control.
Payload: None.
Details: Starship successfully separated from the Super Heavy booster and reached space. However, it lost telemetry and was destroyed during atmospheric reentry.
4. Fourth Flight Test (June 6, 2024)
Did it reach orbit? No.
Payload: None.
Details: The Super Heavy booster performed a controlled splashdown, and Starship survived atmospheric reentry with a soft splashdown, marking progress but falling short of orbit.
5. Fifth Flight Test (October 13, 2024)
Did it reach orbit? No.
Payload: None.
Details: The Super Heavy booster was successfully caught by the launch tower ("Mechazilla"), and Starship splashed down safely after a suborbital flight.
6. Sixth Flight Test (November 19, 2024)
Did it reach orbit? No.
Payload: None.
Details: The booster opted for a water landing instead of a catch attempt. Starship successfully relit its engine in space but did not achieve full orbital insertion or payload deployment.
7. Seventh Flight Test (January 16, 2025)
Did it reach orbit? No.
Payload: None.
Details: The Super Heavy booster was successfully caught by "Mechazilla," but Starship's engines failed during ascent, leading to its destruction before reaching orbit.
🤨After The Starship Lightshow…
Going to let rich people get their tickets first on tomorrow's Titanic and see how it goes...
Blue Origin hot fires successfully (despite earlier market rumors), some year in reviews, STA updates, and much more...
AST SpaceMobile’s Transformational Year:
ASTS has undergone a significant evolution over the past year, transforming from a company grappling with technical and financial uncertainty to one with strong partnerships (Google, Verizon, AT&T), validated FCC approvals, government deals, and an emerging satellite technology platform. Block 1 deployment has shown real progress, and ASTS is now positioned as a potential leader in the direct-to-device satellite market. Challenges remain in scaling, securing additional funding, and achieving full regulatory approval.
Competitive Landscape: ASTS vs. Starlink:
Expert interviews highlight AST SpaceMobile’s unique approach with high-capacity satellites and large antennas, enabling superior speeds (20–100 Mbps). In contrast, Starlink leverages its rapid satellite deployment and spectrum agreements with T-Mobile to offer near-term services but with limited capacity and slower speeds (1–2 Mbps). Both companies face regulatory, technical, and financial hurdles as they race to capture growing demand in satellite-based IoT and connectivity markets.
Market Dynamics and Catalysts:
Key upcoming catalysts include potential BAML analyst coverage, further FCC spectrum decisions, and advancements in ASTS’s satellite deployments. Spectrum reuse and beamforming technologies remain critical to ASTS’s ability to scale and compete effectively. Meanwhile, broader telco market changes, like Verizon selling 6,300 towers and AT&T phasing out copper networks, underscore the push toward capital-efficient infrastructure and advanced wireless technologies.
Regulatory and Legal Developments:
Viasat has filed complaints against Starlink’s spectrum use, emphasizing interference and procedural concerns. This adds complexity to the regulatory landscape as ASTS and others vie for approval. ASTS’s ability to navigate these challenges will be pivotal for its success.
Investor Sentiment and Financial Developments:
Tax-loss selling and prior high trading volumes at levels above $25 suggest a reset in investor expectations, creating opportunities for a fresh start in 2025. ASTS’s recent shareholder decisions and redemptions also provide clarity on its financial position going into the new year.
Industry Highlights:
Telco Evolution: AT&T’s $6B annual maintenance cost for copper networks highlights the operational burdens of legacy infrastructure. Phasing out copper could unlock billions in recoverable resources.
Blue Origin and SpaceX Updates: Excitement continues in the space industry, with milestones such as static fire tests for upcoming launches.
IoT Potential: The adoption of 5G spectrum for satellite communication opens new avenues for integrating satellite connectivity into cars, industrial sensors, and more.
🎇ASTS Had a Year
A year ago we didn’t have Google and Verizon. AT&T wasn't an investor. We had no DA's. We had delayed Block 1 with real prospects the satellites were FUBAR'd (who knew). We had no FCC rules. We had no government deals. We weren't a prime contractor. We weren't selected by the Space Development Authority. We had no cash. We had no launch capacity confirmed beyond Block 1. Our ASIC was a question mark. Scott wasn't President.
Christmas is coming. Many updates and tidbits that advance our knowledge of AST Spacemobile...read on, friends
🚀 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW 🚀
Video Calls Now Possible:Beta services launching in early 2025 with FCC support. Each satellite delivers 1M GB usable capacity, covering vast regions.
50 MOUs secured for global partnerships.
Saturno Project Partnership:Collaboration with Vodafone and Spain for satellite-driven connectivity.
Focus on bridging the digital divide and innovating space technology.
5G Fund Progress: FCC rules effective Jan 2025 to fund ASTS's rural deployment. $50M annual funding likely for infrastructure expansion.
Global Opportunity: $ASTS emerging as the mobile-first leader, contrasting with Starlink's fixed solutions.
Partnerships with telecom giants like Vodafone ensure strong growth potential.
Industry Disruption: Competitors face challenges in compatibility and public perception. AST SpaceMobile poised for rapid adoption in underserved regions.
🎙️Scott Gives a Banger
- Already doing video calls
- One satellite can cover half the US
- 30% of MNO customers will pay more for this service
- Each satellite can do 1mm GB of usable capacity (excludes flyovers at 2am, for example because that’s deemed not usable)
- Not a limited or emergency service, it will be mainstream
- Very close to beta service
- FCC is very supportive
- Very dense airwaves and only ASTS can protect it
- Expect approval very soon
- Several thousand beta users early 2025
- 50 MOUs
- Behind MNOs, a desire to pull infrastructure out.
They want to outsource and have carrier neutral partners
“TMFBuilttoLast” asked a question about SpaceX. Lol. Timmay asked a question via a message board
🎥 Narrative Power:
Documentaries & killer visuals drive the $ASTS story forward.
#ASTS #SpaceMobile #SatelliteBroadband
🌐Vodafone DA
- 10 Year Agreement Covers Vodafone Home Markets as well as other markets via its Partner Markets Program
- Vodafone operates in more than 20 markets and has partnerships that cover another 40 markets
- Confirmed speeds of greater than 20 Mbps on 5 Mhz of spectrum
- The service: These gateways will then connect to Vodafone's existing network infrastructure to route the broadband data to users' devices, as well as to access third-party Apps and the Internet
$ASTS gets industry recognition as well as a lot of attention at AT&T's analyst day, as much more...
🍰Summary
Achievements and Industry Position:
Recognition: $ASTS was named the "2024 Emerging Space Company of the Year."
Industry Alignment: Positioned at a critical intersection of technology and connectivity trends, such as satellite communication.
Trading Sentiment:
Market Dynamics: Noted trading patterns where $ASTS is seen as a pair trade against Starlink news, with investors reacting to perceived competition.
Zoomed-Out Perspective: Investors are encouraged to focus on the long-term structural advantages and milestones of $ASTS.
Competitive Insights:
Starlink Comparisons: Differences highlighted between $ASTS's higher speeds and capacity versus Starlink's shared-beam model.
Investor Challenges: Difficulty for institutions to invest in $ASTS due to pre-revenue status and competition with Elon Musk's ventures.
Satellite Operations: Updates on AST5000 ASIC development for enhanced performance in space environments.
Regulatory Milestones: Progress in FCC approvals, including spectrum leasing arrangements and compliance.
Partnerships:
AT&T Collaboration: AT&T's strategy emphasizes $ASTS's role in augmenting terrestrial services. AT&T and Verizon's spectrum contributions bolster $ASTS's offering.
Catalysts and Future Outlook:
Upcoming Catalysts: Regulatory approvals, new launches (e.g., Bluebird 2), government contracts, and initial operations/revenue.
Long-Term Vision: Potential for significant revenue growth and impact on mobile network operators' subscriber value.
Geopolitical and Global Context:
International Developments: Regulatory challenges in Namibia for Starlink, opportunities in Europe, and competitive positioning in the Indian market.
MNO Partnerships: The strategic choice to collaborate with mobile network operators ensures smoother market entry and broader adoption.
Investment Insights:
Valuation Potential: The potential for exponential growth if milestones are achieved, highlighting parallels with historical tech successes.
Market Awareness: Awareness and investment traction are still in the early stages, with significant room for growth.
🏆2024 Emerging Space Company of the Year
Well-earned recognition for $ASTS after a pivotal year of execution