1/ Powerful figures in the Russian government apparatus are reportedly becoming increasingly unhappy with the government's subservient relationship with China, which is seen as "turning the country into a raw materials colony" and threatening an economic crisis. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel has an interesting piece about concerns within "government clans of the Russian Federation" about Putin's strategy towards China, which is being promoted by a "dominant pro-Chinese group".
3/ According to a source, "the failure of the policy of the last two years and the impossibility of getting out of the [Ukraine] conflict on terms acceptable to the dominant group became obvious – …
4/ …hence, the conflict will continue to the detriment of the rest of the elite groups, the population and the interests of the country.
5/ "The rest of the elites are becoming increasingly aware of the ‘colonial’ nature of relations with China - supplying the bulk of extracted resources to China at cost price (and sometimes even below cost price, …
6/ …if we take into account the cost of loans in the current situation) and imports from China at a 2-3 times inflated price.
7/ "In fact, the entire population and business of the Russian Federation is now working to support the military operation and fuel the Chinese economy - 50x50%, all profits from Russian resources are generated in the Chinese economy.
8/ "When dilemmas arise in making state decisions, China's interests are the top priority. This was initially thought to be a temporary measure, but is now increasingly becoming strategically permanent.
9/ "If the public can still be sold a story about national interests, while simultaneously turning the country into a raw materials colony, increasingly restricting citizens' rights and reducing their consumption levels, this mechanism does not work with the elites – while…
10/ …giving lip service to the decisions taken, representatives of even the most patriotic, but non-Chinese groups, since the beginning of the year have clearly become aware of their prospects – the inevitable loss of influence and assets within the country in the next 2 years.
11/ "After the US sanctions on the oil sector of the Russian Federation and the loss of hope for a way out of the conflict in January 2025, behind-the-scenes talks about withdrawing large amounts of funds from the Russian Federation (primarily to Asia, Singapore, DBS Bank) …
12/ …have noticeably intensified, which could provoke an acceleration of the banking crisis and devaluation in the Russian Federation."
1/ Russian artillerymen are reportedly having significant problems with inconsistently filled propelling charges for shells, which is undermining their accuracy and range, but have been forbidden by the Russian General Staff from trying to fix the problem themselves. ⬇️
2/ The 'Philologist in ambush' Telegram channel reports that "complaints continue to come from artillerymen about the quality of ammunition, including the floating weight of gunpowder charges."
3/ "That is, the problem with the weight of gunpowder remains, and artillerymen are forced to continue to weigh gunpowder charges in order to somehow ensure more or less acceptable accuracy."
1/ Elon Musk's instantly-notorious Nazi salute yesterday appears to have sparked a further exodus of users from X/Twitter. Tesla may also be in trouble, according to the Financial Times. ⬇️
2/ A review of recent follower counts shows that there has been a significant spike in people abandoning X in the last 24 hours. This is visible in my own follower count, as well as those of widely disparate accounts.
3/ Comparing my figures with those of @PaddingtonBear, @NASCAR and @YellowstoneNPS, the same trend is visible of a sudden drop in follower accounts at the same time as Musk's infamous appearance at the Trump inauguration rally in Washington, D.C. yesterday.
1/ The Russian neo-Nazi group Rusich has warned that the Russian army faces the collapse of its combat capabilities if the war in Ukraine ends, due to the mass return to civilian life of mobilised personnel. It advises Putin to keep the war going to avoid this scenario. ⬇️
2/ Rusich advocates eight criteria for 'victory' in Ukraine:
"1. Stand with troops along the Dnipro;
2. Take Odessa (land route to Transnistria);
3. Ukraine's refusal of any alliances with NATO;
4. Limitation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in numbers and weapons;
3/ "5. Extradition of SBU and HUR documents, extradition to Russia of employees of these special services who are involved in terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation;
6. Extradition of Russian citizens who participated in the war against Russia;
1/ Secret negotiations between representatives of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin reportedly failed in December 2024 due to unacceptable conditions from the American side, with China said to be playing a role as a spoiler to obtain economic advantage for itself. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that talks took place between Trump and Putin representatives late last year, despite denials from the Russian side when the news was leaked. However, the negotiations proved unsuccessful, according to a source. bbc.com/news/articles/…
3/ "Back in the early days of the Special Military Operation an informal working group on the situation in the economy and finance was organised under the first person of the country [i.e. Putin] from sensible, but completely loyal and dependent on the existing regime, people…
1/ It's worth noting that Trump's birthright citizenship executive executive order includes a clause that could lead to Kamala Harris being stripped of her citizenship.
2/ Here's the relevant part of the text. It applies not only to undocumented immigrants, but to those on temporary resident permits, such as student visas. Under this rule, if both parents are temporary residents, their US-born children wouldn't be US citizens.
3/ The next paragraph says that this rule only applies to those born after 19 February 2025, and therefore not retrospectively. However, as this protection only exists in the executive order and not in any statute or the US constitution, it can be revoked at the stroke of a pen.
1/ The savage beating of two wounded Russian soldiers by Russia's notoriously brutal and corrupt military police (VP) has prompted an outcry by Russian warbloggers. The incident highlights what they describe as the VP's "legal lawlessness" and impunity. ⬇️
2/ The military police are widely detested by other members of Russia's armed forces. They administer military justice in occupied areas of Ukraine, as well as on Russian military bases, where this incident reportedly happened.
3/ The beatings reportedly occurred on 16 January 2025 at the permanent deployment point of the 55th Mountain Motorised Rifle Brigade of the Central Military District in Kyzyl, Tuva. The two beaten soldiers were recovering from injuries and relying on canes to walk.