Too many tokens. Infinite more to come. Supply of tokens is greater than demand.
This illustrates why expecting an "alt season" where everything goes up for an extended period of time is misplaced. Alt season will continue to happen, but for shorter spans, from a few days to a few weeks at most.
Adjust your expectations. And re-balance your portfolios accordingly.
The absence of such alt season greatly explains the sentiment malaise among crypto investors, in a market where the aggregated market cap has risen dramatically.
Being a good coin picker is now very hard. Just as being a good stocks picker is also very hard. Now more than ever given the AI revolution, a majority of stocks underperforms the S&P 500—even more so the Nasdaq 100.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
2/ At its most basic level, the yield curve represents the difference between yields of longer-term (e.g. 10-year) and shorter-term (e.g. 2-year) Treasuries. Normally, long yields are higher because investors require compensation for the uncertainty of the distant future.
1/ A recession is imminent, risk assets are expensive, and stocks always bottom during deleveraging driven recessions.
Is a major crash inevitable?
Not at all
In this research report we explore how prevalent bearish theses are flawed and why we are bullish on risk assets.
2/ Backdrop #1: most data points indicate a recession is coming.
Leading economics indicators have been moving sharply lower, consumer expectations are extremely pessimistic, and unemployment is ticking higher.
3/ The inversion of the yield curve has been ringing the alarm for a while. This phenomenon, where the yield on longer-term bonds falls below that of shorter-term bonds, has historically been a reliable indicator of impending economic downturns.
You do not want to fade the upcoming $ETH breakout
People asking which breakout
The upcoming $ETH breakout that started 60 seconds after my post
Hope you didn't fade it
Some people unfollowed because I said ETH
I'm a trader not a "community member". I don't "support" ETH over BTC. For financial speculation purposes, I generally prefer ETH because it tends to have more upside. This is not set in stone.
#3.2 (20%) Powell mixed messages => noise (BTC stays in the 25-30 range)
#3.3 (20%) Powell says monetary policy is for inflation, other tools for financial stability => stocks dip, BTC with stocks, days later regional banks start to collapse, BTC pops, Fed forced to cut 1st week of May
The latter is the trickier one. Many traders betting on this one.
There's a reason we say that a year in crypto feels like a decade in traditional markets.
New traders should study these with daily and intraday charts, zooming into the key dates, and using the archive of a mostly real time news feed such as @tier10k's.
If CZ painted this chart, he then must be one of the best painters in the history of bitcoin, as charts rarely get more picture perfect bullish than this
- multi-months long consolidation
- momentum indicators turning
- a bottom with max historical volume
- higher low on very high volume
-engulfing candle on even higher volume
- bounce off the 200 dma
- top of range coincides with 200 wma
- air pocket volume wise above
The Fed should determine the direction
The chart illustrates the path of least resistance