Alex Krüger Profile picture
Jan 24 1 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Too many tokens. Infinite more to come. Supply of tokens is greater than demand.

This illustrates why expecting an "alt season" where everything goes up for an extended period of time is misplaced. Alt season will continue to happen, but for shorter spans, from a few days to a few weeks at most.

Adjust your expectations. And re-balance your portfolios accordingly.

The absence of such alt season greatly explains the sentiment malaise among crypto investors, in a market where the aggregated market cap has risen dramatically.

Being a good coin picker is now very hard. Just as being a good stocks picker is also very hard. Now more than ever given the AI revolution, a majority of stocks underperforms the S&P 500—even more so the Nasdaq 100.Image

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More from @krugermacro

Jul 12, 2023
1/ The yield curve is massively inverted. And everybody knows that portends a massive recession.

But do you recall "Everybody" ever being right?

In this report we explore the yield curve inversion, what it really means, and what to expect going forward.
You may find the full version of our report on our website:

asgardmarkets.com/post/inverted-…
2/ At its most basic level, the yield curve represents the difference between yields of longer-term (e.g. 10-year) and shorter-term (e.g. 2-year) Treasuries. Normally, long yields are higher because investors require compensation for the uncertainty of the distant future.
Read 27 tweets
Jul 3, 2023
1/ A recession is imminent, risk assets are expensive, and stocks always bottom during deleveraging driven recessions.

Is a major crash inevitable?

Not at all

In this research report we explore how prevalent bearish theses are flawed and why we are bullish on risk assets.
2/ Backdrop #1: most data points indicate a recession is coming.

Leading economics indicators have been moving sharply lower, consumer expectations are extremely pessimistic, and unemployment is ticking higher.

3/ The inversion of the yield curve has been ringing the alarm for a while. This phenomenon, where the yield on longer-term bonds falls below that of shorter-term bonds, has historically been a reliable indicator of impending economic downturns.
Read 34 tweets
Apr 4, 2023
You do not want to fade the upcoming $ETH breakout
People asking which breakout

The upcoming $ETH breakout that started 60 seconds after my post

Hope you didn't fade it
Some people unfollowed because I said ETH

I'm a trader not a "community member". I don't "support" ETH over BTC. For financial speculation purposes, I generally prefer ETH because it tends to have more upside. This is not set in stone.

See here for ex
Read 4 tweets
Mar 22, 2023
My FOMC framework for tomorrow

#1 -25bps (3%) => very strong trend (BTC 40k fast)

#2 +0bps (37%) => strong trend (BTC low 30s)

#3 +25bps (60%) => dip on statement, back to flat by press conference, then Powell decides direction during the press conference
#3.1 (20%) Powell signals upcoming pause => strong trend (BTC low 30s)

#3.2 (20%) Powell mixed messages => noise (BTC stays in the 25-30 range)
#3.3 (20%) Powell says monetary policy is for inflation, other tools for financial stability => stocks dip, BTC with stocks, days later regional banks start to collapse, BTC pops, Fed forced to cut 1st week of May

The latter is the trickier one. Many traders betting on this one.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 15, 2023
Top 2021-23 crypto events every trader should study

#1 Banking fud mar/23
#2 FTX nov/22
#3 The Merge jul-sep/22
#4 CPI-3AC crash jun/22
#5 Luna may/22
#6 FOMC may/22
#7 Ukraine's invasion feb/22
#8 40k flush (Netflix) jan/22
#9 ETF-CPI top nov/21
#10 L1s rally aug-nov/21
#11 30k bottom jul/21
#12 China ban may/21
#13 Elon's tantrum may/21
#14 COIN IPO apr/21
#15 Doge mania apr-may/21
#16 Elon's pump jan-feb/21

There's a reason we say that a year in crypto feels like a decade in traditional markets.
New traders should study these with daily and intraday charts, zooming into the key dates, and using the archive of a mostly real time news feed such as @tier10k's.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 14, 2023
If CZ painted this chart, he then must be one of the best painters in the history of bitcoin, as charts rarely get more picture perfect bullish than this
- multi-months long consolidation
- momentum indicators turning
- a bottom with max historical volume
- higher low on very high volume
-engulfing candle on even higher volume
- bounce off the 200 dma
- top of range coincides with 200 wma
- air pocket volume wise above
The Fed should determine the direction

The chart illustrates the path of least resistance
Read 4 tweets

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