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Alex Krüger Profile picture
Alex Krüger
@krugermacro
🇦🇷 Economist. Trader. Advisory. Sharing views on crypto and global markets.
49 subscribers
Jul 12, 2023 • 27 tweets • 7 min read
1/ The yield curve is massively inverted. And everybody knows that portends a massive recession.

But do you recall "Everybody" ever being right?

In this report we explore the yield curve inversion, what it really means, and what to expect going forward. You may find the full version of our report on our website:

asgardmarkets.com/post/inverted-…
Jul 3, 2023 • 34 tweets • 12 min read
1/ A recession is imminent, risk assets are expensive, and stocks always bottom during deleveraging driven recessions.

Is a major crash inevitable?

Not at all

In this research report we explore how prevalent bearish theses are flawed and why we are bullish on risk assets. 2/ Backdrop #1: most data points indicate a recession is coming.

Leading economics indicators have been moving sharply lower, consumer expectations are extremely pessimistic, and unemployment is ticking higher.

Apr 4, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
You do not want to fade the upcoming $ETH breakout People asking which breakout

The upcoming $ETH breakout that started 60 seconds after my post

Hope you didn't fade it
Mar 22, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
My FOMC framework for tomorrow

#1 -25bps (3%) => very strong trend (BTC 40k fast)

#2 +0bps (37%) => strong trend (BTC low 30s)

#3 +25bps (60%) => dip on statement, back to flat by press conference, then Powell decides direction during the press conference #3.1 (20%) Powell signals upcoming pause => strong trend (BTC low 30s)

#3.2 (20%) Powell mixed messages => noise (BTC stays in the 25-30 range)
Mar 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Top 2021-23 crypto events every trader should study

#1 Banking fud mar/23
#2 FTX nov/22
#3 The Merge jul-sep/22
#4 CPI-3AC crash jun/22
#5 Luna may/22
#6 FOMC may/22
#7 Ukraine's invasion feb/22
#8 40k flush (Netflix) jan/22
#9 ETF-CPI top nov/21
#10 L1s rally aug-nov/21 #11 30k bottom jul/21
#12 China ban may/21
#13 Elon's tantrum may/21
#14 COIN IPO apr/21
#15 Doge mania apr-may/21
#16 Elon's pump jan-feb/21

There's a reason we say that a year in crypto feels like a decade in traditional markets.
Mar 14, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
If CZ painted this chart, he then must be one of the best painters in the history of bitcoin, as charts rarely get more picture perfect bullish than this - multi-months long consolidation
- momentum indicators turning
- a bottom with max historical volume
- higher low on very high volume
-engulfing candle on even higher volume
- bounce off the 200 dma
- top of range coincides with 200 wma
- air pocket volume wise above
Feb 1, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
15 Key Powell FOMC statements

TL;DR: Fed in wait & see mode

Corollary: expect uptrend to continue until the data turns (or bears cry in pain)

#1 We are extremely concerned about risks that inflation poses on both sides of the mandate (key word = both) #2 Our attention is not drawn to short-term changes in financial conditions, but on long-term changes in broader financial conditions

#3 Encouraging to see a disinflationary process underway, with a strong labor market
Dec 30, 2022 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
This thread contains a series of polls to measure how much usage various blockchains have.

Real usage. Hodling is not using.

Polling for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Solana, Avalanche, Polygon, Ripple, Litecoin, Dogecoin & Tron.

Please retweet to maximize votes! How often have you used the Bitcoin blockchain since 2021?

Pick whatever is closest for you.

If you only trade or hold coins in exchanges please answer "never". A cross exchange transfer represents using. Mining & running nodes represents daily usage.
Dec 29, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
$SOL price action last few days likely related to large parties exiting much more than news or influencers and crypto twitter dunking on it. Dripping lower, constantly caressing the lows, clearly an asset were some very large holder/s have said "I want out of it, fast". PA makes me think of $YFI October 2020
Dec 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
My view at the moment is simple. Crypto is *now* driven ~80% by Binance worries. Think most such worries are misplaced. Mind I have no Binance exposure, and was wrong about FTX. The real reason for concern is imo Silvergate, though USDC would be fine beyond short-term noise. Do not know when the market will get over this Binance narrative. Could for on for a while and drive prices much lower. Not my base case.
Dec 13, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
SBF finally arrested in the Bahamas and awaiting extradition to the US.

Never forget how the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, BBG, The Block and people like Ackman and "Mister Wonderful" wrote nice things about this criminal and his gang. @nytimes: SBF, such a nice guy, a charitable entrepreneur who had good intentions
Nov 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Worst world cup ever? Going to be interesting to see football fans keeping it quiet as "loud music and sounds" are forbidden
Nov 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
On one hand, the macro changed. Equities are roaring. Long rates and the dollar topped.

On the other, crypto has been demolished. But major bottoms tend to form after such events, FAST. I think $BTC and $ETH are fine from here. Less so smaller caps. Little interest in trading crypto ATM though. Don't expect clear trends for the time being, in either direction. The pain is real.
Jul 13, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
My take on today's highly anticipated CPI inflation data.

The last CPI number triggered a massive crash, with the S&P falling 7% in 2 days. Meanwhile the ensuing crypto crash was so intense that CPI could be relabeled as the Crypto Pain Index. Image $BTC and $ETH dropped 30% and 40% respectively in 4 days, leaving many traumatized. This likely makes today's CPI the most watched inflation number in history. Image
Feb 3, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Next ket level for $ETH is 1920. I think it's reasonable it trades soon-- before the CME launch. I don't expect a crash after the launch, as it happened in 2017. For two reasons. First, the market is now more mature, the macro is different, and there are different players involved. Second, $ETH remains a high beta asset. $BTC determines the market direction, $ETH follows.
Aug 18, 2018 • 31 tweets • 7 min read
1/ A thread on the shape of the Futures curve: understanding Contango & Backwardation in all asset classes (Commodities, Equities, Fixed Income, Volatility, Foreign Exchange, Bitcoin).

--- long enough for an article, but writing articles is more time consuming than a tweetstorm. 2/ The price of Futures or Forwards can be expressed as a function of the Spot price and the cost of carry. This is mainly known as Interest Rate Parity. Some refer to it as the Cost of Carry Model. Futures and Forwards are in this case interchangeable words.