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seb Profile picture
@jensenjeans
Jan 24 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Autistic people make for bad friends, romantic partners, and colleagues so the aversion people have to them is justified. Image
It’s also not a superpower that makes you immune to propaganda and hyperproductive. If anything autistic people are more susceptible to propaganda than the average person.
Most 4chan/twitter right wingers aren’t actually autistic, in fact I see antisocial/ADHD/narc personality types more often.

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More from @jensenjeans

seb Profile picture
Jul 11
Tried to project the future GDP and GDP per capita using a model that predicts economic growth using population structure + IQ. Image
Methodology:

- I calculated the correlation between IQ and fertility in ~60 countries and the correlation between IQ and education in ~120 countries.

- I estimated the expected rate of change in IQ over time for individual countries (using imputations when necessary) based on the average generational time by country (using the UN's projections of average age at birth).

- Then, I predicted what the future and past IQ for each country should be based on those rates of change.

- Then, I built a model that predicts change in GDP per capita based on previous GDP per capita, the year, the percent of the population that is under 20, the percent of the population that is over 65, and the average IQ. Year was a nonsignificant predictor after controlling for IQ/population structure, indicating that a large fraction (maybe all of it?) of slowdown in growth is due to dysgenics and demographics.

- The model then predicted the GDP per capita of each year in the future for each country. I used the UN's medium population projections (aka optimistic ones).Image
Plan is to combine various possible changes in methodology and assumptions to estimate the standard errors of these predictions.

I tried doing this for the projections of the world IQ, and the changes in assumptions had little effect. The combinations were:

- Correlation in IQ between average of two parents and a child could vary from 0.6 to 0.7.
- True correlations between IQ and fertility could be very different in the real world -- the boundaries corresponding the +1.5 or -1.5 IQ points per century.
- Using different population forecasts (in this case, low variant, medium variant, high variant, no immigration variant).
- Imprecisely estimated generational timings. In this case, I combined 3 different methodologies: assuming the current average ages of birth by country would continue into the future, assuming they would gradually converge to 29 by 2125.

Combining these four changes in assumptions has very little effect on the estimated world IQ of the future -- the 95% CIs of the estimated world IQ in 2100 was [76, 78]. Very precise.Image
Read 5 tweets
seb Profile picture
May 31
80% of people in the 90th percentile of attractiveness/health/childhood health/mental stability/height/intelligence are more right wing than the average person.
sebjenseb.net/p/what-are-gig…
Easy. I estimated the correlations between the six variables and political views, simulated data that fit those correlations, and found that "gigachads" (90th pctile at each trait) were predicted to be right wing 80% of the time. Image
Using real data (WLS), I also tried seeing if adjusting for the independent effect of each variable changed the correlations between the variables. Only the correlation between height and being right wing decreased, the others were unchanged (see footnotes for correlations). Image
Read 5 tweets
seb Profile picture
May 24
Thread on statistical predictors of being really into anime: Image
Asian men and black men are the most likely to watch anime; Indians and white women are the least likely. Image
Anime fans seem to be less conscientious than other people -- they are less careful about their hygeine and report worse physiques. Image
Read 13 tweets
seb Profile picture
May 21
High quality samples (e.g. Project Talent, NLSY79/97, NLS, US Labour Dept, ABCD) typically have larger differences in intelligence between whites and blacks. A simple publication bias correction reduces the estimated IQ of African Americans to 81.5 Image
Figure comes from a study @KirkegaardEmil and I are writing on race differences in intelligence within the USA. Unfortunately it's stuck in the pipeline, so I figured I would tweet out the main results.

Notable finding: there are no race differences in variance in intelligence. Image
@KirkegaardEmil Black mean for the studies I mentioned prior:
Project Talent -- 77.5
NLSY79 -- 81.8
NLS -- 81.3
NLSY97 -- 83.2
US Labour Dept -- ~82
ABCD -- 79.8
Read 4 tweets

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