Tried to project the future GDP and GDP per capita using a model that predicts economic growth using population structure + IQ. Methodology:

- I calculated the correlation between IQ and fertility in ~60 countries and the correlation between IQ and education in ~120 countries.

- I estimated the expected rate of change in IQ over time for individual countries (using imputations when necessary) based on the average generational time by country (using the UN's projections of average age at birth).

- Then, I predicted what the future and past IQ for each country should be based on those rates of change.

- Then, I built a model that predicts change in GDP per capita based on previous GDP per capita, the year, the percent of the population that is under 20, the percent of the population that is over 65, and the average IQ. Year was a nonsignificant predictor after controlling for IQ/population structure, indicating that a large fraction (maybe all of it?) of slowdown in growth is due to dysgenics and demographics.

- The model then predicted the GDP per capita of each year in the future for each country. I used the UN's medium population projections (aka optimistic ones).

80% of people in the 90th percentile of attractiveness/health/childhood health/mental stability/height/intelligence are more right wing than the average person.
sebjenseb.net/p/what-are-gig… Easy. I estimated the correlations between the six variables and political views, simulated data that fit those correlations, and found that "gigachads" (90th pctile at each trait) were predicted to be right wing 80% of the time.

Thread on statistical predictors of being really into anime: Asian men and black men are the most likely to watch anime; Indians and white women are the least likely.

High quality samples (e.g. Project Talent, NLSY79/97, NLS, US Labour Dept, ABCD) typically have larger differences in intelligence between whites and blacks. A simple publication bias correction reduces the estimated IQ of African Americans to 81.5 Figure comes from a study @KirkegaardEmil and I are writing on race differences in intelligence within the USA. Unfortunately it's stuck in the pipeline, so I figured I would tweet out the main results.

Notable finding: there are no race differences in variance in intelligence.