Fred Krueger Profile picture
Jan 25 1 tweets 1 min read Read on X
I've learned a lot about Solana and meme coins over the last 24 hours.

Here's the download.

First of all, the Solana ecosystem is far slicker than I thought. Compared to eth, polygon, or anything else that uses Metamask there is no comparison. Phantom wallet feels like an Apple product, MetaMask feels like Windows 3.1. When you combine the speed of the dexes, I don't think any thing else can compete at the consumer level.

Second, since Saturday when Trump launched his meme coin, followed by Melania, followed by WLFI raising an additional 250 Million, followed by the possibility of the Bitcoin reserve actually containing XRP, followed by XRP and SOL ETF applications, we have to accept the reality that this new world will not be Bitcoin only.

Does this change that I still think Bitcoin is the best asset? no. But I think the pure maxi narrative is now out of sync with the current administration. You can't be anti XYZ meme coin and pro Trump coin. The rules apply to everybody.

So the game has changed. When the game changes, you need to change.

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More from @dotkrueger

Aug 8
There is a narrative that "bitcoin fixes money printing".
But Stocks, Real Estate and Gold already do that.
Really well. And with much lower volatility that Bitcoin.

Bitcoin does something much different.
It enables you to vastly outperform inflation.
For decades to come.

1/N
Since we went on the Fiat Standard in 1971, we've been printing money at 6.5% which has resulted in about 4.5% inflation, difference being real GDP growth.

We're lower exactly right now, but it was quite a bit higher during the 70s and the Pandemic. 2/N Image
But traditional asset prices Stocks, Real Estate and Gold have outperformed that, even after taxes. Real Estate with 20% down has been the real winner becuase of leverage 3/N Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 6
🚨THE FUTURE IS STOCHASTIC🚨

Even if you know Bitcoin will follow a power-law curve, the ride will be volatile. How will just HODLing do versus kelly criterion rebalancing at 70% and 50% BTC?

We tested this out using 1,000 Monte-Carlo simulations, starting with 100K. 1/6 Image
The 100K investment goes to 1.2 MM on average with a standard deviation of 355K.

So you will make somewhere between a 9x and 13x on your money. If you can stomach the volatility, this is the best strategy.

2/6
But what if you go to a 70% or 50% Kelly allocation?

Mathematically, these rebalancing ratios capture the majority of the compounding benefit while substantially lowering volatility.

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 9
THE GREAT TREASURY BUBBLE

August 2025 – August 2026

How Bitcoin treasury giants like Metaplanet and Strategy fueled a parabolic rise to $444K—and triggered a collapse to $84K

1/13
📅 Monday, August 11, 2025
Bitcoin: $132,000
Metaplanet: ¥1,537 | mNAV: 4.6× | BTC holdings: 15,555

Simon Gershowitz shocks markets: Metaplanet adds 5,445 BTC, reaching the iconic 21,000 BTC milestone.
Funded by:
- A ¥100 billion BTC-backed loan via Goldman Sachs Japan
- Issuance of JSTRK, a Japanese-registered yield note modeled after Strategy’s STRK

Bitcoin surges to $138,000 by day’s end.
Gershowitz on X:

“A company that holds Bitcoin is a company that holds time.”

2/13
📅 Thursday, August 21, 2025
Strategy reveals a 20,000 BTC acquisition, funded by convertible senior notes and balance sheet leverage.

Their message:

“Our treasury is now denominated in truth.”

Bitcoin breaks $150,000.

3/13
Read 13 tweets
Jun 5
In his new book, "How Countries Go Broke" Ray Dalio states the core function of banks is to "match lenders and borrowers, earning a spread".

I will add:

"That function is being completely replaced by Bitcoin and DeFi."

Banks are obsolete. 🧵
For centuries, banks served as trust brokers. They held your money, lent it out, and skimmed the spread. That worked in a world of paper, middlemen, and closed systems.

But today, trust is programmable.
Collateral is digital.
Settlement is instant.
The bank is just code. 2/N
We saw this play out first with exchanges.

Back in 2018, I told Miko Matsumura that DEXs would replace centralized exchanges.

It took a few years, but now it’s obvious: Uniswap, Raydium, Jupiter — they’ve already won.
3/N

No CEO required
Read 10 tweets
Jun 4
8%. Thats a pretty key number.
----------------------------------

Since 2000 Global Money supply has been growing exactly at 8%. 1/N Image
Same with US Debt. Steady grower at 8% 2/N Image
If you add in dividends, The SP500 has just about matched it. After tax, of course, you lose a minimum of 25% 3/N Image
Read 5 tweets
May 31
Something new is happening.

For the last two years, Gold and Bitcoin have decoupled from Real Interest Rates (HT @LynAldenContact) . We are witnessing a stampede into hard money, at the same time real rates soar. 1/N Image
Why now?

For the last 30 years, we have been on a steady increase in overal debt. This was funded by an increasing size of the Social Security trust, which peaked in 2020.

But now the demographics have changed. The trust is being depleted. The math is working in reverse 2/N Image
As my generation (the Boomers) start drawing down that trust, it will be a net seller of US Treasuries.

The ponzi scheme has ended. The train is not just "unstoppable", it's officially "off the tracks".

This is not just the 1970s. It's much worse. And there is a new alternative.

Hold your Bitcoin for dear life.
Read 4 tweets

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