I've learned a lot about Solana and meme coins over the last 24 hours.
Here's the download.
First of all, the Solana ecosystem is far slicker than I thought. Compared to eth, polygon, or anything else that uses Metamask there is no comparison. Phantom wallet feels like an Apple product, MetaMask feels like Windows 3.1. When you combine the speed of the dexes, I don't think any thing else can compete at the consumer level.
Second, since Saturday when Trump launched his meme coin, followed by Melania, followed by WLFI raising an additional 250 Million, followed by the possibility of the Bitcoin reserve actually containing XRP, followed by XRP and SOL ETF applications, we have to accept the reality that this new world will not be Bitcoin only.
Does this change that I still think Bitcoin is the best asset? no. But I think the pure maxi narrative is now out of sync with the current administration. You can't be anti XYZ meme coin and pro Trump coin. The rules apply to everybody.
So the game has changed. When the game changes, you need to change.
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Most investors want two things:
✅ Steady income
✅ Long-term upside
Usually, you can’t have both.
Yield means selling your future. Growth means no cash flow.
Bitcoin changes that.
[2] Imagine investing $1M into a Bitcoin partnership fund.
The fund pays you 10% per year — that’s $100K annually, tax-deferred.
Meanwhile, your capital compounds at 30% CAGR with Bitcoin.
After 10 years:
• $1M paid out in cash
• ~$13.8M in Bitcoin value
• No tax until exit.
[3] How is it tax-deferred?
Because it’s not a “dividend” — it’s a return of capital under IRC §731.
As long as distributions don’t exceed your basis, they’re not taxable.
Your basis just declines each year while your Bitcoin grows at the Power Law.
There is a narrative that "bitcoin fixes money printing".
But Stocks, Real Estate and Gold already do that.
Really well. And with much lower volatility that Bitcoin.
Bitcoin does something much different.
It enables you to vastly outperform inflation.
For decades to come.
1/N
Since we went on the Fiat Standard in 1971, we've been printing money at 6.5% which has resulted in about 4.5% inflation, difference being real GDP growth.
We're lower exactly right now, but it was quite a bit higher during the 70s and the Pandemic. 2/N
But traditional asset prices Stocks, Real Estate and Gold have outperformed that, even after taxes. Real Estate with 20% down has been the real winner becuase of leverage 3/N
Even if you know Bitcoin will follow a power-law curve, the ride will be volatile. How will just HODLing do versus kelly criterion rebalancing at 70% and 50% BTC?
We tested this out using 1,000 Monte-Carlo simulations, starting with 100K. 1/6
The 100K investment goes to 1.2 MM on average with a standard deviation of 355K.
So you will make somewhere between a 9x and 13x on your money. If you can stomach the volatility, this is the best strategy.
2/6
But what if you go to a 70% or 50% Kelly allocation?
Mathematically, these rebalancing ratios capture the majority of the compounding benefit while substantially lowering volatility.
Simon Gershowitz shocks markets: Metaplanet adds 5,445 BTC, reaching the iconic 21,000 BTC milestone.
Funded by:
- A ¥100 billion BTC-backed loan via Goldman Sachs Japan
- Issuance of JSTRK, a Japanese-registered yield note modeled after Strategy’s STRK
Bitcoin surges to $138,000 by day’s end.
Gershowitz on X:
“A company that holds Bitcoin is a company that holds time.”
2/13
📅 Thursday, August 21, 2025
Strategy reveals a 20,000 BTC acquisition, funded by convertible senior notes and balance sheet leverage.
In his new book, "How Countries Go Broke" Ray Dalio states the core function of banks is to "match lenders and borrowers, earning a spread".
I will add:
"That function is being completely replaced by Bitcoin and DeFi."
Banks are obsolete. 🧵
For centuries, banks served as trust brokers. They held your money, lent it out, and skimmed the spread. That worked in a world of paper, middlemen, and closed systems.
But today, trust is programmable.
Collateral is digital.
Settlement is instant.
The bank is just code. 2/N
We saw this play out first with exchanges.
Back in 2018, I told Miko Matsumura that DEXs would replace centralized exchanges.
It took a few years, but now it’s obvious: Uniswap, Raydium, Jupiter — they’ve already won. 3/N