I've learned a lot about Solana and meme coins over the last 24 hours.
Here's the download.
First of all, the Solana ecosystem is far slicker than I thought. Compared to eth, polygon, or anything else that uses Metamask there is no comparison. Phantom wallet feels like an Apple product, MetaMask feels like Windows 3.1. When you combine the speed of the dexes, I don't think any thing else can compete at the consumer level.
Second, since Saturday when Trump launched his meme coin, followed by Melania, followed by WLFI raising an additional 250 Million, followed by the possibility of the Bitcoin reserve actually containing XRP, followed by XRP and SOL ETF applications, we have to accept the reality that this new world will not be Bitcoin only.
Does this change that I still think Bitcoin is the best asset? no. But I think the pure maxi narrative is now out of sync with the current administration. You can't be anti XYZ meme coin and pro Trump coin. The rules apply to everybody.
So the game has changed. When the game changes, you need to change.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
In his new book, "How Countries Go Broke" Ray Dalio states the core function of banks is to "match lenders and borrowers, earning a spread".
I will add:
"That function is being completely replaced by Bitcoin and DeFi."
Banks are obsolete. 🧵
For centuries, banks served as trust brokers. They held your money, lent it out, and skimmed the spread. That worked in a world of paper, middlemen, and closed systems.
But today, trust is programmable.
Collateral is digital.
Settlement is instant.
The bank is just code. 2/N
We saw this play out first with exchanges.
Back in 2018, I told Miko Matsumura that DEXs would replace centralized exchanges.
It took a few years, but now it’s obvious: Uniswap, Raydium, Jupiter — they’ve already won. 3/N
For the last two years, Gold and Bitcoin have decoupled from Real Interest Rates (HT @LynAldenContact) . We are witnessing a stampede into hard money, at the same time real rates soar. 1/N
Why now?
For the last 30 years, we have been on a steady increase in overal debt. This was funded by an increasing size of the Social Security trust, which peaked in 2020.
But now the demographics have changed. The trust is being depleted. The math is working in reverse 2/N
As my generation (the Boomers) start drawing down that trust, it will be a net seller of US Treasuries.
The ponzi scheme has ended. The train is not just "unstoppable", it's officially "off the tracks".
This is not just the 1970s. It's much worse. And there is a new alternative.
Who owns our debt?
Mainly other countries.
And they are selling our debt.
So how is this going to unfold? 1/N
Let's first look at the Sovereigns. 2/N
Japan has already threatened to dump the majority of their treasuries. There are reducing. China is selling for gold. Mainland Europe is not in a position to buy more.
There really is no room to grow here.
Next obvious category: banks 3/N
But these are reeling from 2020. Bank of America in particular is sitting on 100 Billion of unrealized losses. There is not a lot "growth potential" there. And the numbers are small. Remember we have a 2 Trillion deficit that could easily double in a recession. These numbers are an order of magnitude lower.