1/ Let's talk about rule of law versus rule by law.
Rule of law is the legal system that applies in democratic states, and is foundational to democracy. It holds that the law is the supreme authority to which everyone, including government officials, is subject.
2/ This is traditionally illustrated by the image of 'blind Justice', usually depicted as a blindfolded woman standing with a sword and set of scales. The blindfold denotes impartiality; the sword, authority; the scales, balance and fairness; the pose, steadfastness.
3/ In autocracies – notably Russia and China today, and so-called 'Herrenvolk democracies' like apartheid South Africa and the pre-Civil Rights southern United States – a different system has operated: rule by law, rather than rule of law.
4/ Rule by law can be summarised by a single principle: the law protects the dominant group but does not bind them, while it binds the rest of the groups in society but does not protect them.
5/ China's rule of law system stands out for its unusually high level of formalism. The Chinese Communist Party is the highest authority in China and is not bound in any way by the law. Instead, it uses the law as its chief instrument for governing the population.
6/ In China, this is known as fazhi (法治) or yifa zhiguo (依法治国), which literally means “law-based governance” or ruling the country in accordance with the law. (China officially translates 法治 as "rule of law" but the actual system is completely different.)
7/ So what are the key markers of a rule by law system, in contrast to one based on rule of law?
8/🔹 Law as an instrument of control: Laws are primarily crafted and enforced to serve the interests of the ruling class or government, rather than to uphold justice or protect individual rights. The law becomes a tool for maintaining power and suppressing opposition.
9/🔹 Selective or arbitrary enforcement: Those in favour with the authorities receive lenient treatment or be exempt from certain laws, while others, especially political opponents or marginalised groups, face harsh enforcement.
10/ This can be accompanied by a lack of transparency and consistency in how laws are applied, leading to unpredictability and legal uncertainty. In China, this has made it particularly difficult for Western companies to operate without fear of arbitrary arrests and restrictions.
11/🔹 Lack of judicial independence: Judges are appointed based on political loyalty to make decisions that favour the government's agenda over legal or moral principles. This is very much the case in both Russia and China, where judges aren't in any way independent actors.
12/🔹 Legislation for control: Laws target political dissidents, control public activities, or limit freedoms like speech, assembly, or press under the pretext of national security or maintaining/restoring public order. China has taken this approach in repressing Hong Kong.
13/ 🔹 Absence of accountability: Those in power are not held accountable for breaking the law or might take action to legitimise their actions retroactively, such as self-pardoning or having themselves declared legally immune. This often leads to corruption and abuse of power.
14/ 🔹 Opacity in legal processes: The law-making process, enforcement, and judicial proceedings lack transparency, making it difficult for citizens to understand or engage with the legal system. Russia and China both make it very difficult to scrutinise legal proceedings.
15/ 🔹 Lack of legal protection for rights: Whereas rule of law systems protect human rights by law, rule by law systems enable individual rights to be overridden or ignored if it suits the interests of those in power.
16/ One of the key issues in the next four years is how far the US is likely to go in moving from the rule of law to rule by law. There are already warning signs, like the pardoning of January 6 rioters, the invention of presidential immunity, and judicial politicisation.
17/ There will certainly be many changes to the law coming up in the US. It'd be worth bookmarking the list above and comparing it with new laws and decrees as they emerge, to help you assess whether they correspond with rule of law or rule by law. /end
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1/ Russian soldiers are being trained to stand still if they are targeted by a drone, in the hope that the operator will not notice them if they are not moving. This tactic misunderstands how drones are being used and is lethally unsuccessful, as a Russian milblogger explains. ⬇️
2/ Commenting on a Ukrainian video of an FPV drone flying into a stationary Russian soldier's head, the 'Philologist in ambush' describes the tactic of "freezing like a post" as "some monstrous nonsense" imparted during the (brief) training given to newly recruited soldiers.
3/ "Human vision (especially with a weak drone image) is really good at capturing objects in motion, whereas static objects can be missed, and freezing in a well-masked environment (in particular, in untrimmed greenery) can help to some extent. But there are nuances!
1/ Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine complain that they have been overwhelmed since the New Year by a tsunami of paperwork. The sudden burst of activity by the militrary bureaucracy has led some Russian milbloggers to hope that it means an imminent ceasefire. ⬇️
2/ The Russian milblogger 'Vault 8' spots "signs of a possible détente":
"After the New Year, the paperwork, contrary to expectations, did not go down, but remained at the same level and even increased."
3/ "No matter who I talk to from different units, the same Paris-like movement is going on everywhere:
1) A total check of material property and write-off of losses. So that there are as few cold cases and criminal cases as possible, while write-offs can be in military order.
1/ It's a joke, I know, but there's a nugget of truth here: until 1914 the North Sea was generally known in English as the German Ocean. The name "North Sea" was sometimes reserved for the Atlantic north of Shetland (which is now generally known as the Norwegian Sea).
2/ The British renaming of the German Ocean wasn't simply a unilateral creation of a new name, however - the term 'North Sea' had already been in use for centuries by the Dutch, who originally named it in opposition to the "South Sea" (off Frisia, the modern Wadden Sea).
3/ Ironically, the Germans themselves didn't use the term "German Ocean" but followed the Dutch and Danes in calling it the Nordzee. So although the British change of name was political, it simply brought the naming into line with its North Sea neighbours.
1/ Russian artillerymen are reportedly having significant problems with inconsistently filled propelling charges for shells, which is undermining their accuracy and range, but have been forbidden by the Russian General Staff from trying to fix the problem themselves. ⬇️
2/ The 'Philologist in ambush' Telegram channel reports that "complaints continue to come from artillerymen about the quality of ammunition, including the floating weight of gunpowder charges."
3/ "That is, the problem with the weight of gunpowder remains, and artillerymen are forced to continue to weigh gunpowder charges in order to somehow ensure more or less acceptable accuracy."
1/ Elon Musk's instantly-notorious Nazi salute yesterday appears to have sparked a further exodus of users from X/Twitter. Tesla may also be in trouble, according to the Financial Times. ⬇️
2/ A review of recent follower counts shows that there has been a significant spike in people abandoning X in the last 24 hours. This is visible in my own follower count, as well as those of widely disparate accounts.
3/ Comparing my figures with those of @PaddingtonBear, @NASCAR and @YellowstoneNPS, the same trend is visible of a sudden drop in follower accounts at the same time as Musk's infamous appearance at the Trump inauguration rally in Washington, D.C. yesterday.
1/ The Russian neo-Nazi group Rusich has warned that the Russian army faces the collapse of its combat capabilities if the war in Ukraine ends, due to the mass return to civilian life of mobilised personnel. It advises Putin to keep the war going to avoid this scenario. ⬇️
2/ Rusich advocates eight criteria for 'victory' in Ukraine:
"1. Stand with troops along the Dnipro;
2. Take Odessa (land route to Transnistria);
3. Ukraine's refusal of any alliances with NATO;
4. Limitation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in numbers and weapons;
3/ "5. Extradition of SBU and HUR documents, extradition to Russia of employees of these special services who are involved in terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation;
6. Extradition of Russian citizens who participated in the war against Russia;