1/ Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine complain that they have been overwhelmed since the New Year by a tsunami of paperwork. The sudden burst of activity by the militrary bureaucracy has led some Russian milbloggers to hope that it means an imminent ceasefire. ⬇️
2/ The Russian milblogger 'Vault 8' spots "signs of a possible détente":
"After the New Year, the paperwork, contrary to expectations, did not go down, but remained at the same level and even increased."
3/ "No matter who I talk to from different units, the same Paris-like movement is going on everywhere:
1) A total check of material property and write-off of losses. So that there are as few cold cases and criminal cases as possible, while write-offs can be in military order.
4/ "2) They are putting things in order with retaining people in their positions, so that everything is in order everywhere.
5/ "This applies, for example, to forgetting in wartime to transfer cases and positions due to rapid movements from the front to the hospital and between military units.
3) They are looking for SOCians [AWOL soldiers] to give them new assholes.
6/ "4) They are looking for missing persons in order to pay compensation and return the remains to relatives.
7/ "5) All actions on everyday life and combat work have become overgrown with documents in accordance with the requirements – and this is 2, 5 or more times paper and ink for the printer.
In general, paper warriors sleep 5-7 hours everywhere and work as if it were mid-December.
8/ "And among everyone, including regular officers, there is an opinion that this is a tectonic shift towards détente.
9/ "What the leaders will agree on there - we will see, but the military corporation is already preparing for the post-Special Military Operation debriefing, r̶e̶w̶a̶r̶d̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶u̶n̶i̶n̶v̶o̶l̶v̶e̶d̶,̶ ̶p̶u̶n̶i̶s̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶n̶o̶c̶e̶n̶t̶.
And it will write off everyone - if only the responsible persons had the will, and endless people to replenish."
11/ Corroborating 'Vault 8', the 'Diary of a Mobilised Musician' comments:
"There is paperwork everywhere. They are putting personal files in order, writing off everything that can be written off, issuing everything that needs to be issued, checking the documentation."
12/ "I want to believe that they are preparing for the end. Well, time will tell." /end
1/ Russian soldiers are being trained to stand still if they are targeted by a drone, in the hope that the operator will not notice them if they are not moving. This tactic misunderstands how drones are being used and is lethally unsuccessful, as a Russian milblogger explains. ⬇️
2/ Commenting on a Ukrainian video of an FPV drone flying into a stationary Russian soldier's head, the 'Philologist in ambush' describes the tactic of "freezing like a post" as "some monstrous nonsense" imparted during the (brief) training given to newly recruited soldiers.
3/ "Human vision (especially with a weak drone image) is really good at capturing objects in motion, whereas static objects can be missed, and freezing in a well-masked environment (in particular, in untrimmed greenery) can help to some extent. But there are nuances!
1/ Let's talk about rule of law versus rule by law.
Rule of law is the legal system that applies in democratic states, and is foundational to democracy. It holds that the law is the supreme authority to which everyone, including government officials, is subject.
2/ This is traditionally illustrated by the image of 'blind Justice', usually depicted as a blindfolded woman standing with a sword and set of scales. The blindfold denotes impartiality; the sword, authority; the scales, balance and fairness; the pose, steadfastness.
3/ In autocracies – notably Russia and China today, and so-called 'Herrenvolk democracies' like apartheid South Africa and the pre-Civil Rights southern United States – a different system has operated: rule by law, rather than rule of law.
1/ It's a joke, I know, but there's a nugget of truth here: until 1914 the North Sea was generally known in English as the German Ocean. The name "North Sea" was sometimes reserved for the Atlantic north of Shetland (which is now generally known as the Norwegian Sea).
2/ The British renaming of the German Ocean wasn't simply a unilateral creation of a new name, however - the term 'North Sea' had already been in use for centuries by the Dutch, who originally named it in opposition to the "South Sea" (off Frisia, the modern Wadden Sea).
3/ Ironically, the Germans themselves didn't use the term "German Ocean" but followed the Dutch and Danes in calling it the Nordzee. So although the British change of name was political, it simply brought the naming into line with its North Sea neighbours.
1/ Russian artillerymen are reportedly having significant problems with inconsistently filled propelling charges for shells, which is undermining their accuracy and range, but have been forbidden by the Russian General Staff from trying to fix the problem themselves. ⬇️
2/ The 'Philologist in ambush' Telegram channel reports that "complaints continue to come from artillerymen about the quality of ammunition, including the floating weight of gunpowder charges."
3/ "That is, the problem with the weight of gunpowder remains, and artillerymen are forced to continue to weigh gunpowder charges in order to somehow ensure more or less acceptable accuracy."
1/ Elon Musk's instantly-notorious Nazi salute yesterday appears to have sparked a further exodus of users from X/Twitter. Tesla may also be in trouble, according to the Financial Times. ⬇️
2/ A review of recent follower counts shows that there has been a significant spike in people abandoning X in the last 24 hours. This is visible in my own follower count, as well as those of widely disparate accounts.
3/ Comparing my figures with those of @PaddingtonBear, @NASCAR and @YellowstoneNPS, the same trend is visible of a sudden drop in follower accounts at the same time as Musk's infamous appearance at the Trump inauguration rally in Washington, D.C. yesterday.
1/ The Russian neo-Nazi group Rusich has warned that the Russian army faces the collapse of its combat capabilities if the war in Ukraine ends, due to the mass return to civilian life of mobilised personnel. It advises Putin to keep the war going to avoid this scenario. ⬇️
2/ Rusich advocates eight criteria for 'victory' in Ukraine:
"1. Stand with troops along the Dnipro;
2. Take Odessa (land route to Transnistria);
3. Ukraine's refusal of any alliances with NATO;
4. Limitation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in numbers and weapons;
3/ "5. Extradition of SBU and HUR documents, extradition to Russia of employees of these special services who are involved in terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation;
6. Extradition of Russian citizens who participated in the war against Russia;