1/ Russian soldiers are being trained to stand still if they are targeted by a drone, in the hope that the operator will not notice them if they are not moving. This tactic misunderstands how drones are being used and is lethally unsuccessful, as a Russian milblogger explains. ⬇️
2/ Commenting on a Ukrainian video of an FPV drone flying into a stationary Russian soldier's head, the 'Philologist in ambush' describes the tactic of "freezing like a post" as "some monstrous nonsense" imparted during the (brief) training given to newly recruited soldiers.
3/ "Human vision (especially with a weak drone image) is really good at capturing objects in motion, whereas static objects can be missed, and freezing in a well-masked environment (in particular, in untrimmed greenery) can help to some extent. But there are nuances!
4/ "First. Kamikaze drones don't fly at random, they are guided by reconnaissance drones. This is what should be taken as the default basic setup.
5/ "Kamikaze drones can operate in the conditionally free hunting mode (including taking into account the high rates of drone consumption accepted by the enemy), but, as a rule, in areas where the presence of targets is guaranteed, which can be detected by aerial reconnaissance…
6/ …(say, on busy logistic communications by frontline standards). External control of the kamikaze's operation is clearly shown in the video posted above.
7/ "That is, freezing even behind a good camouflage in no way means that you have not been burned in advance and will not be stalked.
8/ "The kamikaze himself is unlikely to circle around some impassable thickets for too long, but this does not cancel the probability that instead of the kamikaze who is tired of stalking you, a bomber will fly in and drop a mine on you.
9/ "If you lurked behind the camouflage and the kamikaze flew by, it is simply flying on other business and not to multiply the mistakes of survivors in vain.
Second. Drones are progressing in technical terms, including in terms of visual target fixation.
10/ "Fiber-optic kamikazes give the operator an excellent picture. Now they are primarily focused on work on equipment and transport, but their number will increase, and their application will be wider.
11/ "Accordingly, it will be much easier for the operator of such a drone, sent on target designation from a reconnaissance aircraft, to detect you behind camouflage, even if he loses you for some time.
12/ "Further, if we take into account the daily consumption rates accepted by the enemy, kamikazes with thermal imaging now account for about 18% of the total number of FPV drones, which in itself increases the night risks.
13/ "It is an extremely dangerous illusion to think that behind a non-solid concealment (primarily, natural cover) one can calmly pretend to be a rag and not be visible. Especially considering the reconnaissance and strike circuit within which kamikaze drones operate.
14/ "The scout first detects the movement of heat signatures and then their freezing when the kamikaze approaches, i.e. this rag of yours will not only be visible, but will not stop being a target.
15/ "At the same time, don't forget that anti-thermal cloaks have only a temporary effect.
16/ "Finally, the introduction of machine vision will make it possible to detect standardised objects hiding behind the camouflage with a higher degree of probability, i.e. in order to increase the chances of escaping the machine's field of vision,…
17/ …it will be necessary to break up the silhouette well, hiding the outlines. In the case of infantry, outlines are hidden, for example, by baggy helmet covers and shapeless capes. Such covers and capes are also relevant for cameras with a good picture.
18/ "On a separate note: we are currently focusing on kamikaze drones, but the above applies to bomber drones as well (by the way, fibre optic bomber drones are also quite a promising option), but with one clarification.
19/ "The behavior of both kamikazes and bombers in general can tell you whether the operators continue to consider you as a potential target (even if, thanks to the cloak, they temporarily lost sight of you).
20/ "However, if the cloak hiding you can prevent the kamikaze operator from delivering an effective strike with a high probability of hitting you (similar to a nylon mesh) and, accordingly, it makes sense to remain behind the cloak, thus acting as a kind of cover…
21/ …(unless, of course, the kamikaze carries a shrapnel projectile with an air burst, but this is already unpredictable), then a bomber hovering above you requires maneuvering.
22/ "Light ammunition can, in principle, bounce off branches and bounce to the side, but this is still not a guarantee. Plus, bombers can carry heavier ammunition and flammable mixtures.
23/ "That is, freezing behind a camouflage cloak can help you avoid running like a fool, becoming a more convenient target, but this is a very situational option and is by no means a panacea!" /end
1/ Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine complain that they have been overwhelmed since the New Year by a tsunami of paperwork. The sudden burst of activity by the militrary bureaucracy has led some Russian milbloggers to hope that it means an imminent ceasefire. ⬇️
2/ The Russian milblogger 'Vault 8' spots "signs of a possible détente":
"After the New Year, the paperwork, contrary to expectations, did not go down, but remained at the same level and even increased."
3/ "No matter who I talk to from different units, the same Paris-like movement is going on everywhere:
1) A total check of material property and write-off of losses. So that there are as few cold cases and criminal cases as possible, while write-offs can be in military order.
1/ Let's talk about rule of law versus rule by law.
Rule of law is the legal system that applies in democratic states, and is foundational to democracy. It holds that the law is the supreme authority to which everyone, including government officials, is subject.
2/ This is traditionally illustrated by the image of 'blind Justice', usually depicted as a blindfolded woman standing with a sword and set of scales. The blindfold denotes impartiality; the sword, authority; the scales, balance and fairness; the pose, steadfastness.
3/ In autocracies – notably Russia and China today, and so-called 'Herrenvolk democracies' like apartheid South Africa and the pre-Civil Rights southern United States – a different system has operated: rule by law, rather than rule of law.
1/ It's a joke, I know, but there's a nugget of truth here: until 1914 the North Sea was generally known in English as the German Ocean. The name "North Sea" was sometimes reserved for the Atlantic north of Shetland (which is now generally known as the Norwegian Sea).
2/ The British renaming of the German Ocean wasn't simply a unilateral creation of a new name, however - the term 'North Sea' had already been in use for centuries by the Dutch, who originally named it in opposition to the "South Sea" (off Frisia, the modern Wadden Sea).
3/ Ironically, the Germans themselves didn't use the term "German Ocean" but followed the Dutch and Danes in calling it the Nordzee. So although the British change of name was political, it simply brought the naming into line with its North Sea neighbours.
1/ Russian artillerymen are reportedly having significant problems with inconsistently filled propelling charges for shells, which is undermining their accuracy and range, but have been forbidden by the Russian General Staff from trying to fix the problem themselves. ⬇️
2/ The 'Philologist in ambush' Telegram channel reports that "complaints continue to come from artillerymen about the quality of ammunition, including the floating weight of gunpowder charges."
3/ "That is, the problem with the weight of gunpowder remains, and artillerymen are forced to continue to weigh gunpowder charges in order to somehow ensure more or less acceptable accuracy."
1/ Elon Musk's instantly-notorious Nazi salute yesterday appears to have sparked a further exodus of users from X/Twitter. Tesla may also be in trouble, according to the Financial Times. ⬇️
2/ A review of recent follower counts shows that there has been a significant spike in people abandoning X in the last 24 hours. This is visible in my own follower count, as well as those of widely disparate accounts.
3/ Comparing my figures with those of @PaddingtonBear, @NASCAR and @YellowstoneNPS, the same trend is visible of a sudden drop in follower accounts at the same time as Musk's infamous appearance at the Trump inauguration rally in Washington, D.C. yesterday.
1/ The Russian neo-Nazi group Rusich has warned that the Russian army faces the collapse of its combat capabilities if the war in Ukraine ends, due to the mass return to civilian life of mobilised personnel. It advises Putin to keep the war going to avoid this scenario. ⬇️
2/ Rusich advocates eight criteria for 'victory' in Ukraine:
"1. Stand with troops along the Dnipro;
2. Take Odessa (land route to Transnistria);
3. Ukraine's refusal of any alliances with NATO;
4. Limitation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in numbers and weapons;
3/ "5. Extradition of SBU and HUR documents, extradition to Russia of employees of these special services who are involved in terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation;
6. Extradition of Russian citizens who participated in the war against Russia;