Thread by @beowulf888

4-1/ My COVID update for epidemiological weeks 3-4 of 2025.

For the 1st time since 1952, the CDC stopped publishing its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMRW)—the last update was on 16 Jan. Is the Trump administration emulating Chinese secrecy practices?

4-2/ Other CDC data pages seem to be up and running, though. Their wastewater numbers seem to indicate the current XEC COVID wave has peaked. Biobot hasn't published an update recently, so I don't have a reality check for CDC's data.

4-3/ Biofire's proprietary Syndromic Trends also shows COVID dropping off as a percentage of detected respiratory viruses. RSV may also be on downward curve, but influenza is rising fast.

C4-4/ As of last week, COVID was 6.2% of positive tests, while RSV was 8.8%, and Influenza at 25% (!). Likewise, Flu is at 5.2% of ED visits, while COVID is 0.9% and RSV is 0.6%.

4-5/ COVID hospitalizations are lower than previous years—and about half of what last winter's were (4/100,000 vs 7.7/100,000). Despite the XEC wave, weekly deaths remain low. Not sure if we'll continue to see these numbers now that the MMWR reports have stopped.

4-6/ It's very likely that we are past the peak of the current COVID wave. XEC seems to have lost steam. Cov-Spectrum shows it topping out at 41% of sequences. The CDC Nowcast shows it at ~47%, but their Nowcast isn't very sensitive to changes in growth rates.

4-7/ What's next? LP.8.1 is the only major var that's showing any legs. But except in countries with low sampling rates, it hasn't gotten much above 20%. Maybe it will create a secondary wavelet on the tail end of our dinky winter wave, but I doubt it.

4-8/ While COVID and RSV may have peaked, this winter's Influenza wave is still growing.

4-9/ Over on bsky, Marc Johnson (@SolidEvidence on X and bsky) calculates that between 0.25-0.5% of ww samples are from persistent infections. I'd be curious what percentage of these peeps are suffering from Long COVID or are asymptomatic.

bsky.app/profile/solide…

4-10/ In HPAI news, 3 days before Trump's inauguration, Biden awarded Moderna $590 million to develop mRNA-based pandemic vaccines. It's not clear if the Trump administration will try to cancel this grant.

4-11/ Finally, there are rumors that human-to-human transmission of HPAI has been happening in Shanxi and Hebei provinces (northern China) w/ deaths in the hundreds. Rumors only. Other rumors say this is an HMPV outbreak. I'm sure Bhatty and Brainworm are on it. #snarkasm

4-12/ That's it for now. See you in two epi weeks.

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