eigenrobot Profile picture
Jan 31 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
my 3yo has had tons of dental/cavity issues.

we've been taking her to dentists for years, and they have spent an awful lot of time not even subtly intimating that @selentelechia is a shitty mom.

tonight i took our case to Dr @ChatGPTapp

what happened next ... may surprise you
@selentelechia @ChatGPTapp this was spurred by the latest pediatric dentists, who were setting us up with an appointment to crown her molars, came back and reported that the decay had gotten much worse and they would need to extract her four top incisors too

obviously this was incredibly distressing to us
@selentelechia @ChatGPTapp but it was also WEIRD because there is nothing in kiddo's life that would explain that. yet the dentists were a hateful combination of incurious and hostile about why, exactly, this was happening.

it felt off enough that i was compelled to sanity check with another robot. and--- Image
@selentelechia @ChatGPTapp "that's funny. no one has ever mentioned this possibility to us but it would explain a lot about why nothing we do for her teeth helps. i wonder if the characteristic symptoms match up with the ones she has experienced." Image
@selentelechia @ChatGPTapp we went through about potential genetic causes, which are rare but seem more likely for our case (?) than prenatal issues

feels like kind of an outside shot but I'm gonna grab her SNP panel in a bit and see if she has novel mutations in the most likely culprits Image
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@selentelechia @ChatGPTapp the last thing i did was to feed it kiddo's dental x-rays.

"that's crazy" you say? not quite.

first of all, i can cross-check it with a dentist's analysis anyway.

second, chat GPT is very good at technical image analysis in at least some domains
@selentelechia @ChatGPTapp "analyzing images" Image
@selentelechia @ChatGPTapp the analysis and recommendations were pretty much in line with what the dentist recommended from viewing her x-rays. this is somewhat reassuring.

however, Image
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@selentelechia @ChatGPTapp the diagnosis matters immensely

especially if she has genetically-driven enamel hypoplasia, we have to take a bunch of proactive steps to protect her adult teeth the instant they erupt Image
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@selentelechia @ChatGPTapp fortunately it turns out chatgpt is also very good at roasting dentistry as a profession and giving advice about how to proceed as customers

so overall i would say its earned its $20 for january Image
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commentary from a dentist 🙏

i'm very curious about population prevalence here, especially over time

are dental disorders in children well-monitored anywhere? seems unlikely to me but i'd be happy to be wrong about this
@rogersj3 @selentelechia @ChatGPTapp because they're baby teeth right. they're gonna fall out anyway.

so what exactly is the risk here. obviously pain mitigation but if it's infection risk? risk has to be pretty damn high for extraction to make sense right. bc otherwise just extract when infected?
@rogersj3 @selentelechia @ChatGPTapp i'm not at all joking when i say it might be worthwhile to game it out with gpt
@SCPantera @selentelechia @ChatGPTapp no no you misunderstand. theyre antibiotics, like amoxicillin
@rlognormal @selentelechia @ChatGPTapp i bet that's downstream of the bacteria being different, which may in turn be downstream of a still more fundamental cause
@dsteins @selentelechia @ChatGPTapp best i got before she got bored

lateral incisor broke when she was 1 or 2 and ran face-first into a window sill

some coloring is from an SDF treatment Image

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More from @eigenrobot

Sep 22
cant believe ive been outed as a postrationalist

but yes im sorry the credibility revolution was a mistake and economics has long since abandoned careful empirical work for atheoretical regression slop that it massively overinterprets to mindlessly support political claims
my advice to you is if you ever want to ruin a party full of applied econometricians talking about the effect of immigration on native employment, bring up the mariel boatlift after everyone is several drinks in

you may find result enlightening and you'll certainly have some fun Image
fun inside story

when seattle implemented a $15/hr minimum wage they asked some ppl at UW to do a study of the employment effects

the big paper dropped in 2017 and found huge disemployment effects

so the city immediately disavowed it and ran to amherst for a rebuttal
Read 6 tweets
Sep 21
we can easily exploit this with secondary markets in H1B workers. all we need to do is buy up 63 H1Bs for a guaranteed successful IPO. vcs are leaving trillion dollar bills on the ground here
its a reasonable microeconomics paper with a plausible identification method and lots of regressions that are highly suggestive if you dont think about them too much

(are patents actually predictive of ipo success? are the h1bs producing these patents themselves? lol who knows) Image
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the literature review provides some complementary evidence, some of which is interesting context and some of which flatly contradicts the claim tabarrok would like to make Image
Read 15 tweets
Sep 18
Set normative considerations aside a moment.

Is there any way that Dems and the left, going forward, could credibly commit to not suppressing speech? I don't see it.

If not, is recent suppression of speech by the administration construable as strategic retaliation?
It's tricky.

This dynamic is _not_ obviously gainfully-modeled as IPD. Instead of acting simultaneously, one agent (here representing something like a D/R coalition) decides to act in each round.

Who acts next round is nondeterministic and may be affected by actions this round.
More things to consider in this model:

1. If party institutions are ahistorically weak, which I think they are now, discounting of future rounds ought to be treated as relatively intense, which makes commitment more difficult
Read 16 tweets
Sep 16
somewhere along the way i think maybe what happened was, eliezer started believing everything he thought

easy pitfall as you age, probably. IME when you spend enough time thinking, certain things crystalize and you get less patient about the process

happens to everyone prolly
the vital urge to say "ok, how is this wrong" starts to fade as you get older, because you've played that game so many times that it gets tiresome and you start to think you know what that room holds

usually you're right, but it's an easy way to get stuck
second issue is the cost of doing this sort of inquiry gets higher as you accumulate more committed beliefs or expectations

once more, you're usually more likely to be "correct" at any given moment, but updating gets very costly as your world model is built out and solidified
Read 5 tweets
Sep 13
its been a long week so tonight please relax as i relate to you the tale of a great episode in american autism Image
our third president, thomas jefferson, was immensely autistic

he spent much of his time inventing questionably useful devices, getting hung up on and beefing over irrelevant abstractions, pursuing unwise relationships w subordinates, and recording data for no particular reason Image
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he combined several of these hobbies in an extended incident in the court of france where he was serving as america's ambassador ("minister plenipotentiary") in the mid 1780s, succeeding a real scientist and charmer, benjamin franklin

big shoes to fill! and he tried. awkwardly Image
Read 23 tweets
Aug 30
pulled the entire 10 volume set of a 1964 children's reading collection from a used bookstore for $18

i regard this as a colossal win

the introduction is worth reading as a contrast to contemporary pedagogical philosophy. implicit here is a colossal cultural loss Image
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i went to the bookstore to kill time between helping out with a medical emergency but found myself moved to buy these after recalling a trip to the library yesterday with my 4yo, when i noticed the entire children's section was Feelings slop

meanwhile, in 1964: Image
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after my first find i wandered to my favorite bookstore in Minneapolis and found another children's anthology, this one first published in the 1920s (unfortunately incomplete)

~$15, BOGO

as with the other collection, the prefaces contain much ancient wisdom lost to our time Image
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Read 4 tweets

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