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Richard Vereker Profile picture
@verekerrichard1
Feb 1 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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1) For the first time in two and a half years, Russia has not lost (Visually Confirmed) a single T-90 Tank for a whole month. (and only the second month of the war, after July 2022)

I think they are now very low on their best Main Battle Tank, in working condition. 🧵 Image
2) Overall, Russia is only visually confirmed to have lost 151 T-90s, but a portion of the 333 'Unknown Tanks' will also be T-90s, and others will have been lost and not photographed. At any point in time, there will be some damaged tanks that will need repairs. Image
3) Russia claimed to have made 60 T-90Ms in 2021; this number might be accurate, but I suspect it includes many upgrades from T-90As.

They also claim to have increased production to 18 a month. To achieve anything close to this, All (or almost all) will have been upgraded. Image
4) But the thing about 'Upgrades' is you eventually run out of old tanks to upgrade. I suspect Russia effectively Ran out of T-90As to upgrade at least 6 months ago.

New build T-90M will be much more complicated/slower, especially with both international sanctions and with lots of other parts of the Russian defence industry competing for resources.Image
5) T-90s have always been small as a share of total tank losses, but they have been falling since April 24.

Russia may be keeping a T-90 M-equipped elite unit in reserve, ready to respond to any mutiny in the rest of the army. If this is the case, it's probably a small unit. Image
6) To finish, can I thank @warspotting for their work to Visually Confirm all Russian losses and make their data available on their website, warspotting.net

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More from @verekerrichard1

Richard Vereker Profile picture
Oct 18
1) There has been a notable increase of Russian T-54/55 destroyed recently as a share of total Russian Tank losses as recorded by @WarSpotting while still modist, only 4 tanks, it's still a noteworthy increase, a short 🧵 Image
2) There have been 88 total Russian tank losses over 3 months, but of these a quarter 22 have been of Unknown Type. Therefor, of the 66 lost tanks of Known types, the 4 T-54/55s represent 6% A small share, but not negligible, as they have been up to now. Image
3) All 4 of the losses have been Geo located, 2 of them are in Donetsk Oblast, one in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and I think the most recent 'Sudxha raion' is in Russia, if i'm not mistaken. It's possible that its one Russian unit that's been moved about, But I don't think so. Image
Read 6 tweets
Richard Vereker Profile picture
Oct 14
1) More Russian IFV/APC losses added in the last 24 hours (16) to @WarSpotting than happened all of September combined. (14) Image
2) I don't have any inside knowledge of Russian tactics, and 'loss analysis' always has limitations, so recognising those limitations, I'm not going to say why this is. But those that are suggesting that Russia might have stopped supporting small assaults with IFVs and instead are now doing small numbers of larger assaults, might be right.
3) One interesting thing is that of the 25 IFV/APC losses over half 13 are MT-LBs, mostly used as a rather simple APC.

Use of MT-LBs are a proportion of total losses has been increasing, Over 40% in sep (midpoint of 3 month average) again I don't know why, but interesting. Image
Read 4 tweets
Richard Vereker Profile picture
Oct 4
1) A 🧵on Russian tank losses. In September russian losses returned to a more normal distribution, T-80s and T-72 each make up about 1/3 of losses, most of the rest are T-62s, and T-90s stay in the 5-10% range. Image
2) T-90 losses are now exclusively T-90Ms, only 2 T-90As have been lost this year, the last in April. This reinforces my long held assumption that Russia has been upgrading there T-90As to T-90Ms, And probably means they are now few if any T-90As left, new T-90M production is probably back to 60-80 a year.Image
3) T-80 losses have not shown any big recent change, but Unmodernised T-80BV (Dark Blue) continue to become less common, and ether T-80BVM Orb 2022 or Orb 2022s of unknown (BV or BVM) modle, (yellow and light blue) together now make up over half the total. Image
Read 6 tweets
Richard Vereker Profile picture
Sep 26
1) Russian tank loss update, while most of our attention is on the stunning Ukraine offensive against Russia Oil refining; Russia continues to lose tank. Russia is still losing a lot of very old T-62 Tanks, but the proportion is down over the last 2 months. Image
2) this striking chart is perhaps the big news from this months Russi losses, it shows the ratio of Tanks to IFVs, we have gone form 2-3 IFV/APCs for each tank lost to less than half an IFV/APC to each tank lost. Image
3) That's because the number of IFV/APC losses, (yellow) has dropped dramatically. Transport losses however are up, and most others are about normal for this point in the month. Image
Read 4 tweets
Richard Vereker Profile picture
Sep 21
1) Dramatic change in the make up of Russia losses this month. A big drop in the proportion (and absotte numbers) of IFV/APC losses (Light Blue) and rise in the proportion of Truck losses (light yellow near top) also some increase in tank proportion (dark yellow at bottom) Image
2) Here in table format, only 6 IFV/APCs (yellow) but 37 transport (orange).

I dont know whats driving this change, but I think it's too large to be random. my first thought/theory is that it might be related to the 'point' system that Ukrainian Drone forces operate under. Image
3) Here is a graph format, comparing tank to IFV/APC visually confirmed losses you can see the full and dramatic change. This graph is 'mid point of 3 month average' except September 25.

Normally there are 2-3 IFV/APCs for every tank lost, now it's the other way around. Image
Read 4 tweets
Richard Vereker Profile picture
Aug 10
1) The big story in Russian Tank losses, Is the decline in absolute numbers, (more on that in a bit) but there is also a significant change in the types lost. (Data from @WarSpotting ) with most of the decline happening in T-80s. 🧵 Image
2) This graph is the same data as the first graph, but without the '3 month averaging'. T-62s and T-90s look like significant increase but their numbers are stedy, T-72s have declined proportionately to the overall reduction so there share is about the same. Image
3) The decline has been ongoing for a long time, but June and July were paticly low. Image
Read 11 tweets

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