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Feb 1 30 tweets 14 min read Read on X
One recipient, CONSORTIUM FOR ELECTIONS & POLITICAL PROCESS STRENGTHENING, is the recipient of 48 active grants worth $528 million, all awarded from USAID and going to various nations. ಠ_ಠ

Going to do a deep dive. 🧵👇 Image
Let's begin with a few preliminary links.

Link here: datarepublican.com/award_search/?… .

Their website: cepps.org
Per ChatGPT, they operate as a 501(c)(3) 521943638 which does show up in my award search.

They are also operating as a partnership with International Republican Institute (521340267), International Foundation for Electoral Systems (521527835), National Democratic Institute (521338892).

CEPP shares the same office building as International Republican Institute. It is unknown if the other EINs listed are related to them.Image
Image
Putting these EINs in the expose tool generates an interesting graph involving 2 billion dollars. These are from individual 990s, so this is all based on *annualized* reporting.


I will take a break right now and update this to enable URL sharing and download of SVGs.datarepublican.com/expose/Image
EIN sharing is now and live (might have to refresh to clear the cache). Graph downloading is also now enabled. You can download the graph at . Many of these are high-taxpayer EINs reporting over 10 million in government grants.datarepublican.com/expose/?eins=5…
Here's what the graph represents:
🧮 Grand Total: $1,952,938,001 in taxpayer funds! 💸

➡ NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY (521344831) Taxpayer Funds ($362,047,237)
➡ INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION (131624046) Taxpayer Funds ($257,092,498)
➡ NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE FOR (521338892) Taxpayer Funds ($167,610,102)
➡ CONSORTIUM FOR ELECTIONS & (521943638) Taxpayer Funds ($165,142,739)
➡ GLOBAL COMMUNITIES (520846183) Taxpayer Funds ($155,240,485)
➡ PACT INC (132702768) Taxpayer Funds ($149,717,276)
➡ INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE (521340267) Taxpayer Funds ($130,689,289)
➡ American Bar Association Fund for Justice and Education (366110299) Taxpayer Funds ($114,242,128)
➡ FREEDOM HOUSE (131656647) Taxpayer Funds ($93,979,673)
➡ INTERNEWS NETWORK (943027961) Taxpayer Funds ($93,974,716)
➡ INTERNATIONAL FOUNDATION FOR ELECTORAL (521527835) Taxpayer Funds ($58,684,285)
➡ CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL (521398742) Taxpayer Funds ($49,782,402)
➡ ROCKEFELLER PHILANTHROPY ADVISORS INC (133615533) Taxpayer Funds ($27,306,551)
➡ EAST-WEST MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE INC (133586432) Taxpayer Funds ($25,060,024)
➡ THE CARTER CENTER INC (581454716) Taxpayer Funds ($22,531,458)
➡ SEARCH FOR COMMON GROUND (521257425) Taxpayer Funds ($20,758,888)
➡ THE RHODE ISLAND COMMUNITY FOUNDATION (222604963) Taxpayer Funds ($12,502,500)
➡ INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR NOT-FOR-PROFIT (521818273) Taxpayer Funds ($10,638,679)
➡ INSTITUTE FOR WAR & PEACE REPORTING-US (431962561) Taxpayer Funds ($9,842,659)
➡ CIVICUS WORLD ALLIANCE FOR CITIZEN (521847010) Taxpayer Funds ($7,882,463)
➡ INTERNATIONAL CITYCOUNTY MANAGEMENT (362167755) Taxpayer Funds ($7,390,615)
➡ DELAWARE COMMUNITY FOUNDATION INC (222804785) Taxpayer Funds ($5,886,448)
➡ OUTRIGHT ACTION INTERNATIONAL CORP (943139952) Taxpayer Funds ($3,184,871)
➡ MOBILITY INTERNATIONAL USA (930783096) Taxpayer Funds ($1,411,393)
➡ Silicon Valley Community Foundation (205205488) Taxpayer Funds ($150,000)
➡ INTERNATIONAL WOMEN'S MEDIA FOUNDATION (521648942) Taxpayer Funds ($138,622)
➡ UNITED CHARITABLE (204286082) Taxpayer Funds ($50,000)
These are INDEPENDENTLY funded. That is, they do not have overlap in taxpayer money. So we're spending approximately 2 billion dollars an year on this tangled network.
Looking at the graph, we see a new EIN that is transferring enormous amounts of money into one of the CEPP cut-outs.

NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY, EIN 521344831.

What will happen if I enter it into the award search tool? Image
HEY-O, this isn't USAID. It's the Department of State. The Department of State is also a passthrough entity to USAID.

datarepublican.com/award_search/?…Image
Coincidentally, I was given a warning yesterday to not to have anything to do with the Department of State - they are the worst.

I cannot corroborate that warning, e.g., I know very little about them.

But I can say that I trust in the Lord God to protect His own.
National Endowment for Democracy is also entirely taxpayer funded. Their Form 990 is available at with names, companies, organizations. projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/org…Image
National Endowment for Democracy, like USAID is also quite active outside the USA. Image
Will pick back up on this thread later!
But there's more Department of State / USAID incest. Feel free to do the research on your own using the list of EINs posted above - I've provided all the tooling as always.

datarepublican.com/award_search/?…
Recapping this so far before I leave:

Department of State gives nonprofits grants.
USAID gives nonprofits grants.

The nonprofits then give each other grants.

In effect, Department of State is indirectly financing USAID.

There may be other indirect transactions and other agencies involved as well.
Picking back up. In putting the information together, I found out that there is a Department of Justice association with USAID through American Bar Association, with both agencies giving grants. datarepublican.com/award_search/?… And ... American Bar Association finances immigration-related legal services. joeisdone.github.io/expose/?eins=3…Image
Image
Similarly, Global Communities is linked with Department of Agriculture. I'll be putting this out in a table. Image
Interestingly, NED has a 300 million grant from the National Science Foundation: Image
While I could not find International Foundation as a UEI, they are housed in the same building as Conservation International Foundation which is also an USAID recipient. Image
Here's the EIN / UEI mappings for as many 501(c)(3) I could find as possible from the above chart:

🔔 TOTAL Active Spending Grants: $3,829,490,800.46 | TOTAL Government Funding reported through 990s: $1,914,277,896

🔹NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY (Agencies: Department of State, National Science Foundation)
UEI: KH6TMX6EA148 | EIN: 521344831 | Active: $1,617,566,569.62 | 990: $362,047,237
🔹INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION (Agencies: USAID, Department of State)
UEI: G3XNCEEELQN3 | EIN: 131624046 | Active: $640,981,881.00 | 990: $257,092,498
🔹NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
UEI: GN36K2UPR245 | EIN: 521338892 | Active: $47,400,065.00 | 990: $167,610,102
🔹CONSORTIUM FOR ELECTIONS & POLITICAL PROCESS STRENGTHENING (Agencies: USAID)
UEI: E3U6WMW4XSK7 | EIN: 131624046 | Active: $528,658,494.00 | 990: $165,142,739
🔹GLOBAL COMMUNITIES (Agencies: USAID, Department of Agriculture, Department of State)
UEI: ED1ZKHMLK527 | EIN: 520846183 | Active: $247,312,318.17 | 990: $155,240,485
🔹PACT INC (Agencies: USAID, Department of State)
UEI: H2K8KJKM97V4 | EIN: 132702768 | Active: $296,021,834.00 | 990: $149,717,276
🔹INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE (Agencies: USAID, Department of State)
UEI: V2DWM1KMJNK5 | EIN: 521340267 | Active: $9,221,047.00 | 990: $130,689,289
🔹American Bar Association Fund for Justice and Education (Agencies: USAID, Department of Justice)
UEI: L6R3PLXVANN9 | EIN: 366110299 | Active: $5,750,000.00 | 990: $114,242,128
🔹FREEDOM HOUSE (Agencies: USAID, Department of State)
UEI: LAMCXMJQUMG3 | EIN: 131656647 | Active: $85,703,264.00 | 990: $93,979,673
🔹INTERNEWS NETWORK (Agencies: USAID, Department of State)
UEI: MHD7RBNTAB45 | EIN: 943027961 | Active: $94,501,096.00 | 990: $93,974,716
🔹INTERNATIONAL FOUNDATION FOR ELECTORAL (Agencies: Department of State, NOAA, Department of Agriculture, NASA)
UEI: U97HZUQD45E5 | EIN: 521527835 | Active: $33,266,650.70 | 990: $58,684,285
🔹CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL PRIVATE ENTERPRISE, INC. (Agencies: Department of State, USAID)
UEI: G47YDFGLXE83 | EIN: 521398742 | Active: $19,972,269.68 | 990: $49,782,402
🔹ROCKEFELLER PHILANTHROPY ADVISORS INC (Agencies: USAID, Department of State)
UEI: FWMJKZL477L3 | EIN: 133615533 | Active: $37,539,373.00 | 990: $27,306,551
🔹EAST-WEST MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE INC (Agencies: USAID, Department of State)
UEI: LZ4PMD8AJ2J7 | EIN: 133586432 | Active: $81,774,836.00 | 990: $25,060,024
🔹THE CARTER CENTER INC (Agencies: USAID)
UEI: KNPNLAV2FWW6 | EIN: 581454716 | Active: $11,114,797.00 | 990: $22,531,458
🔹SEARCH FOR COMMON GROUND (Agencies: Department of State, USAID, CDC)
UEI: HB7NVH9YCEH1 | EIN: 521257425 | Active: $34,377,081.29 | 990: $20,758,888
🔹INSTITUTE FOR WAR & PEACE REPORTING-US (Agencies: USAID, Department of State)
UEI: RB7UQ5B9DFK7 | EIN: 431962561 | Active: $9,510,724.00 | 990: $9,842,659
🔹INTERNATIONAL CITYCOUNTY MANAGEMENT (Agencies: EPA, Department of Energy)
UEI: H3ETMB4KMWF3 | EIN: 362167755 | Active: $25,226,000.00 | 990: $7,390,615
🔹OUTRIGHT ACTION INTERNATIONAL CORP (Agencies: USAID)
UEI: F1S4Y5K3C4J3 | EIN: 943139952 | Active: $3,592,500.00 | 990: $3,184,871
Note to researchers: mapping EINs to UEIs using geocoding works VERY well when it comes to government cut-out NGOs.
Next, I'll attempt to identify the principal officers of those EINs, their relationships, and if any are in prominent political positions.
I found a few overlaps:

🔹 Gregori Lebedev
🟢 Director at International Foundation for Electoral (EIN: 521527835) – Funded by Dept of State, NOAA, Dept of Agriculture, NASA
🟢 Chair at Center for International Private Enterprise (EIN: 521398742) – Funded by Dept of State, USAID

🔹 Rachel Kleinfeld
🟢 Director at National Endowment for Democracy (EIN: 521344831) – Funded by Dept of State, National Science Foundation
🟢 Trustee at Freedom House (EIN: 131656647) – Funded by USAID, Dept of State

🔹 William Hybl
🟢 Director at International Republican Institute (EIN: 521340267) – Funded by USAID, Dept of State
🟢 Director at International Foundation for Electoral (EIN: 521527835) – Funded by Dept of State, NOAA, Dept of Agriculture, NASA
To some extent, NGOs appear to be a retirement home for many key political appointees?
📢 Alberto Mora – Former General Counsel for the U.S. Navy (George W. Bush Admin), known for opposing torture policies. Now Assoc. Exec. Dir. of Global Programs at American Bar Association Fund for Justice and Education (EIN: 366110299). 💰 $229,970

📢 Anne Richard – Former Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration (Obama Admin). Listed as Senior Advisor, AHRCM at Freedom House (EIN: 131656647). 💰 $179,406

📢 Derek Mitchell – Former U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar (Obama Admin) and Pentagon advisor. Now President (thru 9/2023) at National Democratic Institute (EIN: 521338892). 💰 $344,681

📢 Daniel Fisk – Former National Security Council official (George W. Bush Admin), State Department veteran. Now Chief Operations Officer at International Republican Institute (EIN: 521340267). 💰 $163,055

📢 Dr. Daniel Twining – Former State Department Policy Planner (Bush Admin), advisor on democracy promotion. Now President at International Republican Institute (EIN: 521340267). 💰 $405,724

📢 Anthony Banbury – Former UN Assistant Secretary-General, served under Clinton, Bush, Obama on peacekeeping & crisis response. Now President & CEO at International Foundation for Electoral Systems (EIN: 521527835). 💰 $372,157

📢 Paige Alexander – Former USAID Assistant Administrator for Europe & Eurasia (Obama Admin). Now CEO of The Carter Center (EIN: 581454716). 💰 $424,902

📢 Damon Wilson – Former Special Assistant to President George W. Bush and NATO advisor. Now President & CEO at National Endowment for Democracy (EIN: 521344831). 💰 $368,965

📢 Maju Varghese – Former White House Deputy Assistant & Director of the Office of Administration (Biden Admin). Now Chief Operating Officer at National Endowment for Democracy (EIN: 521344831). 💰 $257,883

📢 Carl Gershman – Longtime President of National Endowment for Democracy (since Reagan Admin, spanning GOP & Democratic administrations). Now listed as Former President at NED (EIN: 521344831). 💰 $250,000

📢 Dr. Allan Goodman – Former Executive Dean at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service, played key roles in education diplomacy under multiple administrations. Now CEO/Trustee at Institute of International Education (EIN: 131624046). 💰 $787,536
Uniparty Alert - these high profile names appear in mixed capacity:

🚀 Jimmy Carter – Trustee at The Carter Center (EIN 581454716) 🤔 Former President (Democratic)
🚀 Barbara Mikulski – Director at National Democratic Institute (EIN 521338892) 🤔 Longest-serving woman in the Senate (Democratic)
🚀 Thomas Daschle – Chairman at National Democratic Institute (EIN 521338892) 🤔 Former Senate Majority Leader (Democratic)
🚀 Michael Chertoff – Trustee at Freedom House (EIN 131656647) 🤔 Former Secretary of Homeland Security (Republican)
🚀 Stacey Abrams – Director at National Democratic Institute (EIN 521338892) 🤔 High-profile Georgia political leader (Democratic)
🚀 Mitt Romney – Director at International Republican Institute (EIN 521340267) 🤔 U.S. Senator from Utah, 2012 GOP nominee (Republican)
🚀 Lindsey Graham – Director at International Republican Institute (EIN 521340267) 🤔 U.S. Senator from South Carolina (Republican)
🚀 Joni Ernst – Director at International Republican Institute (EIN 521340267) 🤔 U.S. Senator from Iowa (Republican)
🚀 Tom Cotton – Director at International Republican Institute (EIN 521340267) 🤔 U.S. Senator from Arkansas (Republican)
🚀 Marco Rubio – Director at International Republican Institute (EIN 521340267) 🤔 U.S. Senator from Florida, 2016 presidential candidate (Republican)
🚀 Dan Sullivan – Chairman at International Republican Institute (EIN 521340267) 🤔 U.S. Senator from Alaska (Republican)
🚀 Kelly Ayotte – Director at International Republican Institute (EIN 521340267) 🤔 Former U.S. Senator from New Hampshire (Republican)
🚀 Mark Kirk – Director at International Republican Institute (EIN 521340267) 🤔 Former U.S. Senator from Illinois (Republican)
🚀 Karen Bass – Vice Chair at National Endowment for Democracy (EIN 521344831) 🤔 Former U.S. Representative, current Mayor of Los Angeles (Democratic)
🚀 Elise Stefanik – Director at National Endowment for Democracy (EIN 521344831) 🤔 U.S. Representative from New York, House GOP Conference Chair (Republican)
🚀 Mel Martinez – Director at National Endowment for Democracy (EIN 521344831) 🤔 Former U.S. Senator from Florida (Republican)
🚀 Peter Roskam – Vice Chair at National Endowment for Democracy (EIN 521344831) 🤔 Former U.S. Representative from Illinois (Republican)
🚀 Steve Biegun – Director at National Endowment for Democracy (EIN 521344831) 🤔 Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State (Republican)
🚀 Steny Hoyer – Director at International Foundation for Electoral (EIN 521527835) 🤔 U.S. Representative from Maryland (Democratic)
🚀 Rob Portman – Director at International Foundation for Electoral (EIN 521527835) 🤔 Former U.S. Senator from Ohio (Republican)
🚀 Andrés Pastrana – Director at International Foundation for Electoral (EIN 521527835) 🤔 Former President of Colombia (Conservative Party)
🚀 Donna Brazile – Director at National Democratic Institute (EIN 521338892) 🤔 High-profile strategist, former DNC chair (Democratic)
Seeing all these big names on such a tiny fraction of EINs, and so many names associated with establishment Republicans, I am lead to conclude that these NGOs *are* the so-called uniparty.
NED includes both Democrats (Karen Bass) and Republicans (Elise Stefanik, Mel Martinez, Steve Biegun). IRI is packed with GOP heavyweights (Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney) but operates under the same umbrella as its "Democratic" counterpart, NDI, which boasts figures like Stacey Abrams, Tom Daschle, and Donna Brazile. Even IFES, positioned as neutral, features top Democrats (Steny Hoyer) and Republicans (Rob Portman) working side by side.
TL;DR: We are funneling massive amounts of taxpayer money—mostly through the State Department and USAID—to NGOs stacked with high-profile establishment politicians from both parties.

And this is just from pulling one thread that started with one NGO: Consortium for Elections & Political Process Strengthening.

How many more are out there waiting to be uncovered?

End of thread, for now. 🫡
I totaled the active grants listed on the website—$1,479,962,814,823.87. That’s $1.5 trillion in spending, spread across multiple years. And that’s just the big-ticket grants—countless smaller awards (<1 million) aren’t even included.

We are being bled to death by the Uniparty through NGOs.
Hat tip from @EaglesTTT :

Literally nobody is getting a salary at Consortium For Elections And Political Process Strengthening! Quite odd for an organization which manages 165 million in revenue.

projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/org…Image

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More from @DataRepublican

Apr 6
Completely independent of tariffs, we need to have a frank conversation about why so many seniors are financially dependent on the stock market, especially when fixed-interest instruments are have been offering attractive yields.
This is the kind of investment advice that was common in my 20s: Image
Note, I am not a financial expert and I don't endorse this model. Just giving this as an example.

The point is, the stock market was always depicted as a high-risk investment and you were supposed to reduce your exposure to high-risk investments by age.

Which is why the amount of exposure of seniors have to the market is confusing.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 1
📊 ANALYSIS: Is there a last minute 🔴 red surge? 🗳️

One of the big questions today: have Republicans regained momentum heading into Election Day? We can’t answer that definitively for Wisconsin, but early Florida numbers offer some insight.

So far, here’s how it looks:

✅ Early voting in FL's CD-1 and CD-6 broke down to: 🔴 51.0% Republican
🔵 34.8% Democrat
➡️ R advantage: +16.2%

📅 In the 2024 cycle, Election Day votes have tended to lean about 6% redder than early votes.

🔴 As of this morning, Election Day voting is breaking: 🔴 57.79% Republican
🔵 26.19% Democrat
➡️ R advantage: +31.6%, or 15.4% redder than early vote

⚠️ Caveats: It’s still early in the day, special elections don’t draw many independents, and we expect that R+31.6% margin to narrow as more ballots come in.

🧮 Turnout is key: In 2024, Election Day made up about 22% of the Florida vote. Right now, there are 15,605 Election Day votes, which is 7.6% of early vote totals.

For GOP momentum to look real, that number would need to hit ~53,646.

Bottom line:
We may or may not be seeing late Republican momentum—but we definitely aren’t seeing a Democratic one.
TL;DR: Keep watching the total Election Day votes on the live Florida map. If we exceed ~53,646 Election Day votes, we may be seeing a last minute momentum for Republicans. datarepublican.com/florida/
As of 9:20 AM ET, we are now up to 19,888 votes.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 20
🔥 UPDATE: 🔥

So, two days ago, the doxxing website DOGEQUEST, primed by an article by the @sltrib, slapped my husband’s distillery front and center in an attempt to intimidate and silence me.

To be honest, it did get me down.

And … congratulations, they might have achieved their goal. We might just have to shutter the whole operation…

… because my husband just now notified me our entire inventory got nearly cleared out in 48 hours flat. His multi-year productions, all of which he personally oversaw and toiled over. All bought out in the blink of an eye.

Terrorists lose this round.

And I have a great feeling that this is going to similarly backfire against @Tesla .
There is a miraculous element to this, IMHO.

We had been trying many months to sell our product online with little success.

It is not a coincidence of the Lord that we finally went online, just one day after he got doxxed in the worst way possible by a viral website.

I pray that every patriot takes encouragement from this.
Looks like my husband has *just* changed it up to offer the actual storefront stock now because it’s not out of stock anymore, get it while it’s hot!

buy.wasatch.co
Read 5 tweets
Mar 19
💎 DUPLICATE SMALL DOLLAR DONATIONS IN KANSAS LOCAL RACES

Following the discovery of @matt_vanswol’s report on fraudulent donations in Kansas, I analyzed four local candidates’ filings. I uncovered 13 donors who each made identical donations to the same candidate on the same date—10 of these donors were from out of state. These same contributors also appeared across most of the nine candidates that Mr. Van Swol donated to, but I focused on these four reports.

Here are the names I found which appeared across all 4 reports. All dates and amounts were same:

🔷 Benjamin k Hand, 10/10/20, $2.00/$1.00, CA
🔷 Chia Yuan Hung, 10/10/20, $1.00, NY
🔷 Dawn Hoffman, 10/10/20, $1.00, FL
🔷 Elaina Rose, 10/10/20, $10.00, WA
🔷 Jennifer Forbes, 10/10/20, $2.00, KS
🔷 Kathleen Newman, 08/04/20, $32.00, KS
🔷 Margaret Pisciotta, 09/18/20, $4.00, KS
🔷 Martha Teitelbaum, 10/10/20, $1.00, MD
🔷 Matthew Van Swol, 09/01/20, $2.00, NC
🔷 Rena Korb, 10/10/20, $1.00, CA
🔷 Ryan Ward, 10/10/20, $1.00, CA
🔷 Tamir Avital, 10/10/20, $4.00, CA
🔷 Teresa Lewis-Hutson, 09/02/20, $1.00, MO

Receipts follow.Image
Image
Image
@matt_vanswol Here are where you can download the donation reports for the campaign cycle:

State Legislators: kansas.gov/ethics/CFAScan…
State Senate: kansas.gov/ethics/CFAScan…
Here are the four specific races I analyzed:

Lindsey Constance
Office: State Senator, District 10
Results: Lost to incumbent Mike Thompson.

Jeff Pittman
Office: State Senator, District 5
Results: Won against incumbent Kevin Braun; flipped seat to Democrat.

Joana Scholtz
Office: State Representative, District 40
Results: Lost to incumbent Republican David French.

Rui Xu
Office: State Representative, District 25
Results: Uncontested incumbent.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 17
🧵 THREAD: Unmasking Swatting Patterns 🧵

Three additional MAGA X influencers got swatted today: @Beard_Vet , @matt_vanswol , @GrageDustin .

I used Grok to compile the following list of swatting victims and then ran it through both Grok and OpenAI’s deep research tools to find common patterns.

I also used AI to analyze who wasn’t swatted, to identify differentiating factors. Finally, I attempt to identify the next high priority targets. Thread follows. 👇
@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin The top AI identifying factor among swatted victims: association with @elonmusk , and/or prominence in alt-media such as InfoWars or War Room.

Documenting receipts (sorry, this will be slow): Image
@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk . @JoeTalkShow is a big fan of Elon: Image
Read 27 tweets
Mar 13
Hello Mr. Ludd,

The question is not whether such awards exist—I have already acknowledged that they do. The issue at hand is not a matter of finding a counter-example and declaring the metric validated. The real question is which heuristic is more accurate: relying on "current award value" or assuming that contractors typically spend up to their maximum authority.

The scale of relevant awards is vast—tens of thousands exceed $1 million and collectively amount to trillions. In contrast, you have cited only a few dozen exceptions. You are not providing not a refutation; you prove to have a fundamental misunderstanding of how heuristic correctness is determined.

Historically and consistently, contractors spend to their maximum authority. Given this reality, the most accurate heuristic for estimating savings is to use potential award value.

I trust this clarifies the point.
In my initial run, which processed the first 60,000 rows, I did not find these awards—my hard drive overheated long before I could complete a full pass through the database. In a later run, which I referenced in another post, I did identify two such awards. That discrepancy is a matter of sampling size, not an issue with the query itself.

I’ll now attempt a full run, which should capture the awards you found.
Running on the full dataset now and I think it'll complete this time! Found a bug which underestimated the number of awards that ended under their potential value, but also underestimated the number of awards that ended OVER their potential value. And

Here's an example:
usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD…

So far, the historical cumulative obligation is vastly exceeding both the current award value and the potential award value.
Read 5 tweets

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