tmnxeq Profile picture
Feb 5 38 tweets 10 min read Read on X
MSTR investor relation is so aids. Press release full of garbage non-gaap kpi

anyways, > $1bn loss in 2024

cash per year-end was a mere $38m Image
fun fact they didn't adopt the new accounting standard on fair value measurement of crypto assets yet. (in contrast to tesla, who adopted it in q4, or coinbase)

explains the large impairment loss, and the carrying value of 62k on their b/s, vs 93k fair value per 31.12.

(probably for taxation..)Image
earnings call opening: Image
amount of funds raised per quarter Image
this is where they stand now Image
no changes to 2025 fundraising plans. re-iterates goal to shift to fixed income issuance Image
ok something about their legacy biz Image
...cumulative amount of btc purchased up to feb..... Image
now describes the fair value adjustment mentioned earlier (opening balance q1 adjusted outside pnl) Image
shares issued as % of total trading volume Image
uh uh. after the 2027 convertible redemption later this month, they claim to have increased capacity for new debt

(note they expect the 2027 convertible to be redeemed for common shares. brrrr.)

next maturity +2 years out Image
now back to the recently issued prefereds ("STRK"). will be trading on nasdaq tmrw Image
lmao. claim they have a lot of debt capacity....if you just disregard most of the debt Image
for the prefs, they claim to have 750 years of STRK dividends capacity (RHS) Image
Image
two new non-gaap kpi:

btc gain (= btc yield * opening)
btc $ gain (= btc yield * $opening)

.... Image
we get 2025 targets for these new non-gaap kpi

unfortunately no mention of details on the financing side Image
Saylor now wrapping up last 12 months Image
on the re-branding:

easier to spell, easier to remember, more elegant Image
now bragging (once again) about past performance Image
..and consequently they outperformed every stock in the S&P500 index since then Image
during this time, bitcoin has also outperformed 99% of companies. mag7 outperformed 94%

(man, saylor sounds a bit annoyed. was his birthday yesterday. too much party?) Image
flipping through the slides - these returns come with high volatility. (note they aren't on #1 in every spot here. maybe sign of declining activity post convertible mania.) Image
bragging again about past performance

strategy[.]com website now tracks this in real-time

(he doesn't consider he might eventually underperform?) Image
he's literally going through these metrics

OTOH, I like the transparency & a dashboard is a good fit for a BI company

OTOH, that's what management is paid for? putting up a dashboard about their stock on their website? Image
btc 2025 catalyst, kinda generic

(not a single mention of AI yet. outside the press release in op.) Image
...now back to Strategy's capital stack

mentions replacing or expanding convertible offering

sees STRK (prefs) for retirement accounts. targets more vol than typical prefs/high yield bonds. highlights also i) perpetual dividend + ii) perpetual call alchemy

doesn't mention NFA Image
...could also see issuing vanilla debt (bottom row in slide before) again. function of cap markets

(guess at current rates, he can't service the interest from traditional debt instruments. hence all the alchemy.)
"strong capital structure, strong equity cushion over fixed liabilities"

wonder if he ran these slides past a lawyer... Image
now back to the non-gaap kpi. saylor hasn't mentioned these are non-gaap kpi.

ytd: small bar -> 2025 target: higher bar Image
> Important Information About BTC Yield, BTC Gain and BTC $ Gain KPIs

here is what the lawyers want you to know (from their sec filings): Image
tldr, the gain is only on paper. shareholder have no claim on either kpi Image
q&a starting, first with some softball that was planted prior on the prefs mechanics Image
STRK dividends will "primarily paid with ATM" shares; cash not necessary. sees the company not constraint, and the dividend size rather small compared to the overall stack

"very confident...in perpetuity"
2nd q (also planted) on the tax "issue", see below

no update; saylor doesn't view it as major issue, even in adverse outcome, sees this only having a minor impact

back to CEO Pong

closing remarks after 2 question to the alleged 10k+ listener in this call. lmao.

"hope you are as excited as we are about our enterprise software & btc strategy"

/end Image
future generation will study him. how did he convince people to buy "perpetual dividend preferred stock" at 80c on the dollar, against a basically non-existing operating company & no ability to generate cash aside from....finding new investors?

oh he can just pay in-kind? what kind of alchemy is this???

Genuinely hope MSTR's legal and capital markets advisors have a Plan B...

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More from @tmnxeq

Jun 10, 2023
for most major alts, this is the first time in over a month with negative funding

curious how it will play out Image
on majors, funding remains positive

interesting we didn't move up further, despite these massive liqs (~20 min ago) Image
>random observation of some onchain degeneracy at @synthetix_io Image
Read 4 tweets

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