Thread by @iyad_elbaghdadi

Hello everyone, emerging to drop some comments about Trump's recent statements about Gaza. I have limited time so I'd rather dump a quick analysis into a single meandering thread, sorry in advance

So: Trump, with a smirking Netanyahu sitting next to him, said he thinks Gaza should be ethnically cleansed, bulldozed, and then turned into a US-controlled "riviera." The comments have horrified and alarmed many people.

Netanyahu said they were "the first good idea he's heard"

This has zero chance of happening, but let's use this as an opportunity to explore how the region has changed since Oct 7th and how the world has changed since 2017 when Trump began his first term.

I want to preface this by stressing that Arab regimes have never sided with Palestine or Israel out of ideology. While the region’s people are strongly pro-Palestinian, regimes (read: dictators) have always acted in their own self-interest.

Arab regimes have normalized with Israel, fought Israel, or stood neutral based on what best served their security at the time. The notion that they always follow America’s lead or are ideologically committed to either side is false; their decisions are mostly pragmatic.

I see many people overreacting—some assuming Arab regimes will capitulate, others praising their rejection of Trump's plans as principled resistance. In reality, their response is driven by survival and strategic calculus, just as it has always been.

Now: In 2017, Trump's foreign policy brought the Abraham Accords, where the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco normalized ties with Israel, sidestepping the land-for-peace paradigm. Saudi Arabia supported this behind the scenes, and MBS met with Netanyahu multiple times.

Back then, aligning with Israel was seen as the pragmatic choice. The region had just emerged from the Arab Spring, ISIS, Assad's apparent (and ultimately temporary) "victory", the rise of a militant Iranian axis, and the entry of Russia into the region as a major player.

Players reacted based on self-interest: MBS wanted to consolidate power, UAE and Bahrain wanted security vs Iran, and Morocco wanted to solidify control over Western Sahara. This environment pushed these regimes toward Israel, but those conditions no longer exist.

Reminder that when Trump was sworn into office in 2017, MBS wasn't even Crown Prince yet (he was deputy crown prince). He needed/used the Trump years to go from second-in-line to undisputed de facto leader. He did & said whatever he needed to get there.

2025 is different. MBS no longer needs to curry favor with Trump or Netanyahu. His rule is already secure, so why risk backlash by siding with Netanyahu? Stability is now more valuable to MBS than new diplomatic gambits.

The Iranian threat, urgent in 2017, is no longer pressing. This shift is due to several factors, including the fall of Assad and, ironically, Israel's own successes against Hezbollah, which have diminished Iran's immediate influence in the region.

Saudi-Iran relations are actually at the best they've been in years. Bit of context: Shortly after Oct 7, the Saudis and Iranians held talks in Riyadh. Saudis distanced themselves from Israeli actions and wanted to be kept out of any potential regional war.

The Iranians obliged. Underreported fact: The period since Oct 7 is the longest period without Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia since 2015. The last Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia was in September 2023. Check the list for yourself (scroll down to timeline): en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi%E2…

Tl;dr: There is far less incentive for Gulf states to rely on Israel as a counterweight to Iran. In 2017, Iran was seen as the regional arsonist. In 2025, everyone sees Netanyahu as the regional arsonist who is destabilizing the region and threatening its security.

Another tl;dr: The above is (partly) why Trump's current term will *not* see an extension of the Abraham Accords, or a "deal of the century", or some other grand bargain, or more normalizations. That ship has sailed, maybe for now, maybe forever.

Moving on to Jordan and Egypt, which are the main obstacles to Trump's "plan". Mass population transfer can never be accepted by either country. No amount of money or bullying can make up for the serious and potentially fatal destabilization that can result.

(I know some people have very little context in the region and would be confused as to why the transport of 2.5 million Palestinians - the most revolutionary and radical demographic in the region, who have been fighting and resisting for 100 years...

... into an Egypt that is a reservoir of 100+ million staunchly pro-Palestinian angry and mostly young people, or a Jordan whose own population are 70-80% originally Palestinian and whose regime almost fell in the early 1970s to an inflow of Palestinian militants...

... would blow up the politics of both Egypt and Jordan. Or maybe I just gave you that context.)

Add to this that if Israel somehow magically in some fantasy universe managed to do this, the other 3 million Palestinians in the West Bank are next, and Jordan and Egypt know this.

If Jordan or Egypt destabilize, it won't stop there—the entire region could unravel, leading to unpredictable and disastrous outcomes. What starts as a crisis in two states could/will easily spiral into runaway regional upheaval.

Btw: Biden's administration also entertained population transfer ideas, but was more careful about language. Unlike Trump, Biden and Blinken didn't openly call for bulldozing Gaza; they suggested "temporary" relocations.

By being so fucking explicit, Trump made it impossible for regional leaders to even pretend to work with him. His bluntness removes any diplomatic cover that could have allowed for even symbolic negotiations.

Tl;dr: Egypt and Jordan would view such a move as an existential threat, not a mere refugee issue. For either state to accept this would equal regime suicide. Like I said last year, you can ask your allies to do many things, but not to slit their own throats.

Now: Is Trump even serious? Given how outlandish all of this has been, many people are rightfully asking this question.

The mere fact that we have to ask is alarming. But: I do not think Trump is serious at all, and his bluntness may be a function of that.

There's also the logistics of this. I mean let's imagine a magical parallel universe in which Egypt and/or Jordan agree to slit their own throats. Who's going to actually go into Gaza and transport ~2.5 million Palestinians (who don't want to leave) out? It's pure fantasy

The main point is: I don't' believe Trump is willing to invest much political capital in this plan, or in the Middle East overall.

Trump 2025's main project isn't foreign policy, it's securing his grip on the US government.

His operatives are already moving fast.

Trump 2.0 is different from Trump 1.0. In 2017, Trump was insecure about his power and relied on Netanyahu and others. In 2025, Trump is confident, has a plan, and doesn't need Netanyahu in the same way. Netanyahu needs him more. The power dynamic has flipped.

Reminder that Trump already steamrolled Netanyahu earlier this year (forcing him into a ceasefire). Their relationship isn't exactly rosy. In fact, earlier this year Trump shared a video calling Netanyahu a "deep dark son of a bitch"

Trump doesn't care about Netanyahu. Trump doesn't care about Israel. Trump only cares about Trump. Trump will only ever do what's good for Trump. And Trump's project right now is consolidating his grip over the US government.

All of this said, Trump's statements are still extremely significant because they mark the end of even the pretense of a two-state solution. The US has now fully aligned itself with the destruction of Palestinians as a national group, embracing it as the conflict's resolution.

This isolates the US and Israel diplomatically, standing alone against global consensus. The repercussions of this shift will only deepen US diplomatic isolation, especially considering the likely outcome ahead (keep reading)

The most likely immediate outcome isn't the Gaza riviera. The most likely immediate outcome is the collapse of the hostage deal and the resumption of war. Netanyahu has to restart the war because the moment it stops, his domestic political situation implodes.

The next phase of war will be even more brutal (if even possible). Israel's endgame—ethnic cleansing—is now explicit. We've long said that was always the plan, but they at least tried to hide it. Now they don't. The illusion of peace talks or a political resolution is gone.

The war will force strategic recalculations. Hamas' ability to sustain another round is a question, although even Blinken has acknowledged it has already restaffed its battalions, and its tunnel network is largely intact.

Meanwhile, Israel faces serious questions about its capacity to sustain an open-ended war with no clear exit. War fatigue in Israel is real and well-documented. This isn't about the flow of weapons, it's about manpower.

Now, can anything/anyone prevent the resumption of war? Ironically, it's Trump, who may be pissed that Netanyahu has broken his promise to him and resumed fighting. But this again depends upon Netanyahu's ability to play Trump. He may get Trump to look the other way.

In either case: Israel's strategic calculus has shifted from "security through apartheid" to "apartheid isn't enough". In other words, ethnic cleansing isn't a side product of Israel's strategy, it *is* the strategy.

Genocide here is a tool for ethnic cleansing - make Gaza unlivable so that nobody can live there, and if they don't leave now we'll push them out at some later time.

As Israel continues its push for ethnic cleansing, Jordan and Egypt may be forced to reconsider their stance, potentially altering the region’s strategic balance. I can even imagine a scenario where Israeli madness pushes them to revert to being frontline resistance states.

Don't assume that the alliances and hostilities in the region are permanent or ideologically driven. Regime behavior can change very fast once said regime finds itself existentially threatened.

Closing this already long & meandering thread: Something else is very different between 2017 and 2025. It's not just Trump or Netanyahu. Israel's collective psyche has decisively shifted.

Israel is entering a phase where its existence in the region is an outright zero sum: It can only exist by threatening the existence and security of everyone else. This marks a dangerous new era for the region as a whole.

The next three years will be pivotal. My people have to survive this period. By 2028, I predict that both Israel and the US will be more fragile, more isolated, and more precarious than ever. Trump is an agent of America's decline, and Netanyahu is an agent of Israel's decline.

*Note that this thread will be cross-posted on BlueSky and Instagram. Versions of the content may appear on Youtube, Tiktok, and the @Kawaakibi website. I'm not online as regularly, but you can subscribe to the KF newsletter here: kawaakibi.org/#/portal