After six months of combat in the Kursk salient, the Ukrainians launched another attack in the southeastern direction of Sudzha. The Ukrainians seemingly breached the first Russian defences, and an armored column managed to advance up to 5-7 kilometers deep towards Ulanok. 1/
The attack was carried out by a battlegroup of likely 1-2 battalions in size, also equipped with engineering vehicles. Ukraine has a relatively large grouping of air assault, mechanized and other brigades in Kursk, but it’s unclear which participated in this operation. 2/
The attack appeared to advance on a narrow front towards Ulanok. The troops took control of the small villages of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka along the road. It is unclear how far the Ukrainians advanced – possibly as far as the outskirts of the village of Ulanok. 3/
However, the Russian countermeasures began quickly, and soon images and videos of destroyed or damaged Ukrainian equipment were posted. As of today, the attack on Ulanok was seemingly halted – or at least there has been no credible claims that Ukrainians would have taken it. 4/
What did Ukraine achieve? This morning Ukrainians were still present in Cherkasskaya Konopelka, which means they took it at least momentarily. Situation in Fanaseevka is unknown. It remains to be seen if Ukraine is able to consolidate the captured positions. 5/
Expanding to the east is understandable, As Russia pushes further towards Sverdlikovo on the western flank of the Kursk salient. The terrain in the area could enable the Ukrainians to take favorable positions along the Psel river, pushing Russia further away from Sudzha. 6/
A supporting attack from the south, for example towards Plekhovo, could have been needed for larger success. I’m not sure what exactly was the desired outcome of this – possibly just to secure better positions around Sudzha. The coming days will show if they managed to do it. 7/
Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to follow the war. Check our map for daily updates. If you want to see the daily changes more clearly, you can open map layers from previous days, weeks and months from the left column. 8/8
Vellyka Novosilka and Kurakhove have fallen, and Russians continue their offensive towards Pokrovsk.
In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/
The losses of Velyka Novosilka and also Kurakhove ultimately had a rather limited impact on the broader dynamics of the battlefield in the southern and central Donetsk directions. The defensive importance of the towns had already decreased earlier, as the flanks fell. 2/
Apart from simply reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region, there is little to be achieved in the Velyka Novosilka direction now. There are only small villages, fields and some limiting terrain. Ukrainians have fortified many dominant heights and ridges. 3/
Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too.
I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/
The Ukrainians are facing a stronger enemy. It's possible they achieve some tactical success with the element of surprise, and in the best case scenarios they may be able to enter some villages. In the big picture, however, the general situation will likely remain the same. 2/
The Ukrainians have lost more than half of the area in Kursk that they controlled at most in August-September 2024. Even if the new attacks were to advance ten kilometers, the battles would still be fought in the same general areas where fighting has been going on for months. 3/
During the past year, there have been several attacks against critical infrastructure near Finland. Russians are being increasingly apparent in their will to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea.
These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/
In the most recent case, cargo ship Eagle S damaged the Estlink-2 cable. The investigation has just begun, so officially Finland isn’t blaming anyone. However, there’s a recurring pattern and practically only one country can be behind it - Russia. 2/
Nothing happens randomly. Before the current events, Russia has used careful consideration in launching a series of attacks against the critical infrastructure of Finland and other Nato countries in the Baltic Sea region. Russia is deliberately seeking to increase hostilities. 3/
It has been claimed that this is a video of North Korean infantry attacking in Kursk. A few of points:
Firstly, this isn't a human wave assault, as there's no fighting. Around 40 soldiers can be counted, which means it's likely a platoon on the move through an open field. 1/
The video quality is low, I can't visually confirm if they are NK soldiers. However, it's possible they are, as they should currently be in the area.
Other videos of similar actions from nearby locations have also been posted on Telegram channels.
All the videos posted today show roughly three platoons on the move at different times of day. The videos do not provide enough information of the tactics these units use in combat, so I can't comment on that unfortunately. Here's where the movement happened. 3/
It seems that the Ukrainian defenders in Hannivka may be encircled, as Russians pushed deeper into Uspenivka.
Based on geolocated footage and both Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels, a Ukrainian detachment of unknown size has been cut off from the rest of the troops. 1/
The situation in Hannivka has reportedly been difficult before already, as the enemy could threaten the thin supply lines from both sides. Despite the obvious threats the Ukrainians seemingly were not given the order to retreat from the dangerous positions. 2/
Reportedly, efforts are underway to relieve the defenders, and the current situation is unclear. Succeeding in this operation depends a lot on how well the Russians are able to entrench themselves in Uspenivka. 3/
This fall has been grim for Ukraine. According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 km2 in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 km2 in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses. 1/
Already at the end of the summer, the situation seemed to be developing in a worrying direction. Especially in August, the Russian gains were relatively large, and it did not seem like the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk would significantly slow down the Russians. 2/
During the fall, while making progress in Ukraine, Russia also conducted several counterattacks in Kursk. Ukraine lost the western flank of the salient, while also losing positions in the east. Between September and November, Ukraine didn’t advance significantly in the area. 3/