The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Feb 9, 2025 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
WOW. This would be historic:

Both Elon Musk and Coinbase's CEO have now proposed putting ALL US spending on blockchain.

This means $6.9 TRILLION of US spending PER YEAR would be placed on a decentralized ledger.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
First, it's important to understand how blockchain works.

A blockchain functions as a decentralized digital ledger where data is stored in blocks that are linked together in a chain.

This means that US government spending would be FAR more secure if implemented properly. Image
Why is it more secure?

Because, when data is stored in these "blocks," it becomes a part of an uneditable digital chain.

Ledgers can be permissioned to restrict viewership and fraudulent spending is almost INSTANTLY flagged.

It is also virtually un-hackable if done right. Image
Furthermore, the blockchain could be publicly accessible to increase transparency.

Currently, the US government's spending database is built in an "append-only" way.

This makes searching for specific words in the database virtually impossible.

It is NOT transparent. Image
For example, after weeks of digging through data @DOGE found this:

62 contracts worth $182 million which were entirely for "administrative expenses."

This included a $168,000 contract for an Anthony Fauci exhibit at the NIH Museum.

This is only the tip of the iceberg. Image
Look at this:

The US Pentagon couldn’t account 63% of its $3.8 TRILLION of assets in an audit.

It's hard to believe this 2023 press release is real.

The DoD says they have $3.8 trillion in assets and $4.0 trillion in liabilities.

The balance sheet doesn't even BALANCE. Image
By using blockchain technology, payments would be easily tracked and audits could even be automated.

This is why many large banks are already utilizing blockchain.

56% of cross-border businesses have integrated blockchain technology into their operations as of 2024. Image
The US Pentagon spent $1 billion to audit JUST their 2018 financials, and failed the audit.

Their goal is to pass an audit by 2028.

That's $10+ billion in cost which could be cut from MULTIPLE government agencies if blockchain is utilized.

Blockchain removes inefficiencies. Image
Another benefit would be eliminating "Ghost Beneficiaries."

Blockchain can ensure that aid programs, pensions, and Social Security are received only by eligible individuals, reducing fraud.

In 2022 alone, there were $13.6 BILLION of "improper" Social Security payments. Image
The biggest downside is that the plan will be met with UNPRECEDENTED resistance.

We will see legal barriers and resistance from bureaucracy like never before.

This has already started as federal judges have restricted @ElonMusk and @DOGE's access to payment systems. Image
Resistance will come from the beneficiaries of these inefficiencies.

For example, over $322 BILLION of taxpayer dollars has gone to various 501(c)(3) organizations, per DataRepublican.

Most taxpayers have no idea this money has gone with $724 BILLION of total contributions. Image
If the US government wants to eliminate deficit spending, we need to cut $5 billion of spending PER DAY.

The US is now spending 44% of GDP per year, the same levels as World War 2.

Most will be surprised how many "problems" will be fixed if deficit spending is eliminated. Image
More disruption means more opportunity for investors.

Investors who can adapt to change will find the market to be HIGHLY profitable.

Want to see how we are positioned in the market?

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Moving US spending to blockchain helps build efficiency, security, and transparency.

By 2030, Deutsche Bank estimates there will be over 250 MILLION blockchain wallet users.

It's time for more efficiency.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. Image
This would have massive implications for crypto as well.

Should we make a thread on the implications for crypto if this happens?

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Jun 5
What just happened?

The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025.

What's happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Just 3 days ago, the S&P 500 hit its highest level on record as AI stocks skyrocketed.

Today, the S&P 500 posted its largest drop since October 2025.

Meanwhile, the biggest news of the day was the 3rd strongest jobs report in 18 months.

This has left many investors confused. Image
In fact, even President Trump commented on the decline after the jobs report.

Trump said “stocks should go up, not down” after today’s jobs report.

However, when you look beneath the surface, it's fairly clear that stock do NOT want a strong labor market over the near-term. Image
Read 12 tweets
May 19
Bond markets are flashing red.

Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%.

This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
First, it is truly incredible how quickly we ended up in this situation.

Prior to the Iran War, yields were finally dropping after years of persistent inflation.

The 10Y Note Yield was down to 3.92%. 80 days later, it is up +75 basis points.

That is a MASSIVE move in yields. Image
In the early days of the Iran War, US Treasury Yields moved higher, but the move was largely contained.

Consensus was that the Iran War would be brief and the Strait of Hormuz would not remained closed.

Today, both Iran and the US have closed Hormuz and traffic remains near 0. Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 20
It's official:

The world is now experiencing its biggest energy crisis in history, with 600 MILLION barrels of lost oil supply.

US gas prices are up +47% since December and inflation is nearing 4% in a similar path to the 1970s.

What happens next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Today marks day 51 of the Iran War.

With ~600 million barrels of lost oil supply, ~$50 billion ​worth of oil has been removed from the global market.

This is the same amount of fuel it takes to run the world's international shipping industry for 4 months.

Truly unprecedented. Image
And, the US actually has it good.

Jet fuel prices in Europe surged over +100% amid the Iran War's disruption.

New data shows Europe has just 6 weeks worth of jet fuel remailing with many flights set to be cancelled.

Europe is urging people to work from home to conserve fuel. Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 19
Global oil markets are out of control:

As the Iran War closes week 3, US oil prices are trading at $97/barrel, up +76% since December.

Meanwhile, physical oil prices in Oman are up to a RECORD $167/barrel, a +72% PREMIUM.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
This chart compares Brent (global oil) to WTI Crude (US oil).

When the Iran War began on February 28th, US oil prices surged toward $120/barrel while Brent lagged, trading at a ~20% discount to WTI Crude.

However, just two weeks later, and Brent hit a +15% premium to US oil. Image
In fact, Brent's premium over WTI Crude is trading at its widest margin in 11+ years.

And, it gets worse. Oman's oil prices are at $167, Dubai's at $137, and Brent at $113, while WTI Crude sits at $97, per Zerohedge.

Never have we seen such a massive divergence, but why? Image
Read 12 tweets
Feb 28
The Strait of Hormuz situation:

Reuters is now reporting that Iran is notifying vessels that it is CLOSING the Strait of Hormuz.

If officially closed, 20+ MILLION barrels of oil PER DAY will be impacted, or 20% of global supply.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
The Strait of Hormuz, between Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

This body of water controls ~20% of the world’s petroleum liquids consumption.

In other words, ONE FIFTH of global oil consumption flows through here EVERY DAY. Image
After US strikes on Iran last night, ships in the Strait of Hormuz are now receiving warnings.

As of 12:30 PM ET, the US has recommended ships avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

In their 2025 analysis, JP Morgan described this as their worst case scenario in an Israel-Iran war. Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 20
It's official:

In one of the most anticipated rulings in decades, the US Supreme Court has ruled President Trump's "emergency" tariffs ILLEGAL.

This exposes the Trump Admin to a potential $175+ BILLION in "tariff refunds."

What happens next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
After 5+ months, the Supreme Court's ruling was released.

The Court ruled IEEPA does NOT authorize the President to impose tariffs.

IEEPA is the law Trump used to impose tariffs, which gives him "special economic powers" during a national emergency involving foreign threats. Image
The market's initial reaction has been positive, but not that strong.

The S&P 500 rose nearly +1% and silver prices are up +5%, but that's a fairly muted reaction to such a big ruling.

But, why?

As we explain below: there is much more to this ruling than the headline. Image
Read 13 tweets

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