The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Feb 9, 2025 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
WOW. This would be historic:

Both Elon Musk and Coinbase's CEO have now proposed putting ALL US spending on blockchain.

This means $6.9 TRILLION of US spending PER YEAR would be placed on a decentralized ledger.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
First, it's important to understand how blockchain works.

A blockchain functions as a decentralized digital ledger where data is stored in blocks that are linked together in a chain.

This means that US government spending would be FAR more secure if implemented properly. Image
Why is it more secure?

Because, when data is stored in these "blocks," it becomes a part of an uneditable digital chain.

Ledgers can be permissioned to restrict viewership and fraudulent spending is almost INSTANTLY flagged.

It is also virtually un-hackable if done right. Image
Furthermore, the blockchain could be publicly accessible to increase transparency.

Currently, the US government's spending database is built in an "append-only" way.

This makes searching for specific words in the database virtually impossible.

It is NOT transparent. Image
For example, after weeks of digging through data @DOGE found this:

62 contracts worth $182 million which were entirely for "administrative expenses."

This included a $168,000 contract for an Anthony Fauci exhibit at the NIH Museum.

This is only the tip of the iceberg. Image
Look at this:

The US Pentagon couldn’t account 63% of its $3.8 TRILLION of assets in an audit.

It's hard to believe this 2023 press release is real.

The DoD says they have $3.8 trillion in assets and $4.0 trillion in liabilities.

The balance sheet doesn't even BALANCE. Image
By using blockchain technology, payments would be easily tracked and audits could even be automated.

This is why many large banks are already utilizing blockchain.

56% of cross-border businesses have integrated blockchain technology into their operations as of 2024. Image
The US Pentagon spent $1 billion to audit JUST their 2018 financials, and failed the audit.

Their goal is to pass an audit by 2028.

That's $10+ billion in cost which could be cut from MULTIPLE government agencies if blockchain is utilized.

Blockchain removes inefficiencies. Image
Another benefit would be eliminating "Ghost Beneficiaries."

Blockchain can ensure that aid programs, pensions, and Social Security are received only by eligible individuals, reducing fraud.

In 2022 alone, there were $13.6 BILLION of "improper" Social Security payments. Image
The biggest downside is that the plan will be met with UNPRECEDENTED resistance.

We will see legal barriers and resistance from bureaucracy like never before.

This has already started as federal judges have restricted @ElonMusk and @DOGE's access to payment systems. Image
Resistance will come from the beneficiaries of these inefficiencies.

For example, over $322 BILLION of taxpayer dollars has gone to various 501(c)(3) organizations, per DataRepublican.

Most taxpayers have no idea this money has gone with $724 BILLION of total contributions. Image
If the US government wants to eliminate deficit spending, we need to cut $5 billion of spending PER DAY.

The US is now spending 44% of GDP per year, the same levels as World War 2.

Most will be surprised how many "problems" will be fixed if deficit spending is eliminated. Image
More disruption means more opportunity for investors.

Investors who can adapt to change will find the market to be HIGHLY profitable.

Want to see how we are positioned in the market?

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Moving US spending to blockchain helps build efficiency, security, and transparency.

By 2030, Deutsche Bank estimates there will be over 250 MILLION blockchain wallet users.

It's time for more efficiency.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. Image
This would have massive implications for crypto as well.

Should we make a thread on the implications for crypto if this happens?

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Feb 5
What is happening in crypto?

Since October 10th, crypto markets are now down -50%, erasing $2.2 TRILLION worth of market cap.

Bitcoin has officially erased ALL of its post-election rally, now down -10% since Trump's election.

Why is it crashing? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
As of 8:00 AM ET today, Bitcoin has officially erased its post-election rally.

Yet, over the last 60 days, the fundamental picture for crypto is actually vastly unchanged.

This is why many investors are confused.

Why is crypto crashing if the fundamental picture is unchanged? Image
The answer to this question requires going back to October 10th.

The most recent TOP in crypto came on October 6th, just 4 days before the -$19.5 billion record liquidation.

Something structural appears to have shifted on October 10th.

And, markets never truly recovered. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 20
This is unprecedented:

If President Trump acquires Greenland and "controls" Venezuela, the US would gain control of 1.2 MILLION square miles of land.

This is ~42% larger than the Louisiana Purchase, the largest US acquisition ever.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
It was an incredibly busy weekend.

On Saturday, Trump announced new 10% tariffs on eight European countries amid his push for Greenland.

Trump says these tariffs rise to 25% on June 1st.

They will remain until a deal is reached for "complete and total purchase of Greenland.” Image
The result was a series of escalations on the trade front and the EU threatening to retaliate.

Now, the EU Parliament is looking to end the 2025 US-EU trade deal.

Trump proceeded to double down, saying US acquiring Greenland is "imperative for national and world security." Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 7
Trump is going after the US housing market:

President Trump just announced he is BANNING single-family home purchases by institutional investors.

Within minutes, Blackstone's stock erased as much as -$17 BILLION today.

What happens next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
For years, investors have been upping purchases of single-family homes in the US.

At the start of the pandemic in 2020, investors saw purchases account for ~14% of transactions.

Now, that share is up to ~27% as the market has become increasingly unaffordable for buyers. Image
As a result, the median age of a first-time homebuyer in the US has surged to a record 40 years old.

This is up from a median age of 33 years old in 2021 and 29 in 1981.

But the question now becomes:

Is this the result of large institutional funds buying houses? Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 4
The Venezuela plot thickens:

While Venezuela holds 303 BILLION barrels of oil reserves, much of this is HEAVY crude oil.

Texas and Louisiana also *happen* to have 6 of the LARGEST HEAVY crude oil refineries in the world.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
In the early 2000s, Venezuela was a MUCH larger oil producer than the US.

In fact, Venezuela produced 3 TIMES as much oil, at nearly 3.3 million barrels per day.

By 2020, Venezuela's production had declined to just 900K/day, while the US hit 5 million/day.

This is key. Image
First, Venezuela has been heavily sanctioned by the US for years.

This resulted in old infrastructure, hindering the ability to extract HEAVY crude oil.

Heavy oil is far more expensive to extract than light crude.

This requires advanced techniques like steam injection. Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 27, 2025
The Silver Situation:

Silver prices are now up a MASSIVE +175% in 2025 and set to post an 8-month win streak for first time since 1980.

Gold and silver have added a combined +$16 TRILLION in market cap this year ALONE.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
As you may know, our view for 2025 has been "own assets or be left behind."

This year, just about ALL assets have pushed higher.

But, as of late, gold and silver are leading the charge, now up 4 and 8 TIMES as much as the S&P 500 YTD.

It all started with a weaker US Dollar. Image
The US Dollar is currently down -9% YTD on track for its worst year since 2017.

As rate cuts kicked off, the US Dollar saw further weakness.

And, as President Trump's new Fed Chair is set to be announced, markets are pricing-in even more dovish Fed policy.

This is key. Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 18, 2025
What just happened?

Core CPI inflation in the US just unexpectedly fell to 2.6%, its LOWEST level since March 2021.

3 months ago, inflation rose to a 6-month high, and last month, the October CPI inflation report was "cancelled."

What changed? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
At first glance, this looks like one of the best inflation reports in years.

The 40 bps drop in headline and core inflation is one of the largest YoY declines since 2023.

And, this comes as core inflation was expected to INCREASE.

It also comes at an interesting time. Image
Last month, the US cancelled the October CPI inflation report.

They cited "a lapse in appropriations" which prevented data from being collected during the government shutdown.

Why is this important?

It means the BLS had to make tons of assumptions for last month's data. Image
Read 12 tweets

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