The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Feb 9 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
WOW. This would be historic:

Both Elon Musk and Coinbase's CEO have now proposed putting ALL US spending on blockchain.

This means $6.9 TRILLION of US spending PER YEAR would be placed on a decentralized ledger.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
First, it's important to understand how blockchain works.

A blockchain functions as a decentralized digital ledger where data is stored in blocks that are linked together in a chain.

This means that US government spending would be FAR more secure if implemented properly. Image
Why is it more secure?

Because, when data is stored in these "blocks," it becomes a part of an uneditable digital chain.

Ledgers can be permissioned to restrict viewership and fraudulent spending is almost INSTANTLY flagged.

It is also virtually un-hackable if done right. Image
Furthermore, the blockchain could be publicly accessible to increase transparency.

Currently, the US government's spending database is built in an "append-only" way.

This makes searching for specific words in the database virtually impossible.

It is NOT transparent. Image
For example, after weeks of digging through data @DOGE found this:

62 contracts worth $182 million which were entirely for "administrative expenses."

This included a $168,000 contract for an Anthony Fauci exhibit at the NIH Museum.

This is only the tip of the iceberg. Image
Look at this:

The US Pentagon couldn’t account 63% of its $3.8 TRILLION of assets in an audit.

It's hard to believe this 2023 press release is real.

The DoD says they have $3.8 trillion in assets and $4.0 trillion in liabilities.

The balance sheet doesn't even BALANCE. Image
By using blockchain technology, payments would be easily tracked and audits could even be automated.

This is why many large banks are already utilizing blockchain.

56% of cross-border businesses have integrated blockchain technology into their operations as of 2024. Image
The US Pentagon spent $1 billion to audit JUST their 2018 financials, and failed the audit.

Their goal is to pass an audit by 2028.

That's $10+ billion in cost which could be cut from MULTIPLE government agencies if blockchain is utilized.

Blockchain removes inefficiencies. Image
Another benefit would be eliminating "Ghost Beneficiaries."

Blockchain can ensure that aid programs, pensions, and Social Security are received only by eligible individuals, reducing fraud.

In 2022 alone, there were $13.6 BILLION of "improper" Social Security payments. Image
The biggest downside is that the plan will be met with UNPRECEDENTED resistance.

We will see legal barriers and resistance from bureaucracy like never before.

This has already started as federal judges have restricted @ElonMusk and @DOGE's access to payment systems. Image
Resistance will come from the beneficiaries of these inefficiencies.

For example, over $322 BILLION of taxpayer dollars has gone to various 501(c)(3) organizations, per DataRepublican.

Most taxpayers have no idea this money has gone with $724 BILLION of total contributions. Image
If the US government wants to eliminate deficit spending, we need to cut $5 billion of spending PER DAY.

The US is now spending 44% of GDP per year, the same levels as World War 2.

Most will be surprised how many "problems" will be fixed if deficit spending is eliminated. Image
More disruption means more opportunity for investors.

Investors who can adapt to change will find the market to be HIGHLY profitable.

Want to see how we are positioned in the market?

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Moving US spending to blockchain helps build efficiency, security, and transparency.

By 2030, Deutsche Bank estimates there will be over 250 MILLION blockchain wallet users.

It's time for more efficiency.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. Image
This would have massive implications for crypto as well.

Should we make a thread on the implications for crypto if this happens?

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Feb 8
It's official:

The Fed's Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) is now down ~$2.5 TRILLION from its peak in December 2022.

The US is borrowing so much debt to fund deficit spending that the RRP has been DEPLETED to a 1,386 day low.

What does it mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
The RRP manages liquidity in the US financial system.

In this case, the Fed borrows money from institutions in exchange for collateral, which is usually US Treasury securities.

The Fed temporarily sells securities with an agreement to buy them back at a slightly higher price. Image
Recently, deficit spending has become to large in the US that the US government is flooding bond markets with supply.

Liquidity from US Treasury and RRP has exceeded the Fed’s balance sheet reduction by $417 billion in 18 months.

The RRP's liquidity is "drying up." Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 6
Lower gas prices are coming:

Since Inauguration Day, oil prices have fallen in a STRAIGHT-LINE lower, now down over -10% from their high.

This drop ALONE is enough to reduce inflation by ~20 basis points or more.

Energy markets are telling us something.

(a thread) Image
Markets have made a crucial realization:

President Trump has made lower energy prices an integral part of his policy plans.

Since he demanded OPEC lower oil prices and the world drop interest rates, BOTH have traded in a straight line lower.

This was on January 23rd in Davos. Image
As we recently outlined in a thread, energy prices tie directly into CPI inflation.

According to a Fed study, every $10 drop in oil prices has the ability to reduce inflation by 20 bps.

Prices are now down -$10.20 from their high, this is a huge drop for just 3 weeks. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 5
Retail is buying near RECORD levels:

On Monday, retail traders purchased +$3 BILLION of equities after the drop, the largest purchase since 2015.

Last week, retail traders bought +$8 BILLION of equities amid DeepSeek worries.

Has retail ever been this bullish?

(a thread) Image
This comes after a record $448+ billion flowed into US stocks in 2024.

For the last 2 years, every dip has been a buying opportunity as big tech's dominance as grown.

As the trade war and AI disruption builds, retail is betting on the same outcome going forward. Image
Last week, US technology sector equity fund inflows hit ~$6.5 BILLION.

This also marks one of the largest weekly inflows over the last 2 years.

Total equity fund inflows reached ~$25 billion last week.

Bullish sentiment is extremely strong right now. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 4
This is insane:

In 2025, $9.2 TRILLION of US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced.

The US now holds $36.2 trillion worth of government debt, meaning 25.4% of the total is set to mature.

This is the REAL reason rates are rising. Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
For some context, the US has added $23 TRILLION of debt since 2008, a 230% increase.

Since 2020, total US debt is up $13 trillion or $2.6 trillion PER YEAR for 5 straight years.

Much of this debt was refinanced last year and another major block of it is due in 2025. Image
This has been fueled by unprecedented levels of deficit spending.

The US deficit reached $1.8 trillion in 2024, or 6.4% of GDP.

That's over $1 trillion PER YEAR on interest expense alone.

All of this debt needs to be "bought" and most of it is sold as US government bonds. Image
Read 12 tweets
Feb 3
The stock market is in a new era:

As trade wars start and stop, volatility is soaring and the S&P 500 is swinging $1+ trillion PER DAY.

Markets are in one of their greatest trading environments of all time.

Want to capitalize on it? Here's what we realized.

(a thread)
First, it has become increasingly clear that President Trump's goal with tariffs is NOT to generate long-term revenue.

Rather, it's to use tariffs as a measure to obtain certain policy outcomes.

With Canada and Mexico, his goal is to secure the border as seen in today's deals. Image
Here's a timeline of the S&P 500 move today from open to close.

Futures fell sharply into the open until the deal between Mexico and the US was announced at ~10 AM ET.

Then, at ~4:30 PM ET, the US-Canada deal was announced.

Dow Jones futures are now GREEN on the day. Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 3
The trade war is LIVE:

New tariffs from President Trump are set to impact $1.3 TRILLION worth of US trade.

The US stock market has lost over -$1.5 TRILLION of market cap with ~43% of all US imports soon subject to tariffs.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
President Trump announced new tariffs of 25% on Canada, 25% on Mexico and 10% on China.

These build on already EXISTING tariffs on China, some of which are from the last Trump trade war.

On February 4th at 12:01 AM ET, these tariffs will go LIVE.

Here's what it means. Image
At a high level, these tariffs function like a TAX on goods coming into the U.S.

Simply put, $100 of goods coming into the U.S. from Canada/Mexico will now "cost" $125.

The US imported $910 BILLION from Canada/Mexico in 2023.

Many of these goods will cost 25% more to import. Image
Read 14 tweets

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