Kyle Chan Profile picture
Feb 9 17 tweets 3 min read Read on X
House of Huawei, the new book by Washington Post reporter @evadou, has to be one of the most important books on China and industrial policy in recent years.

I’m still reading through it and will share parts I found striking in this ongoing thread:
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1/ An executive from Canada’s Nortel called China’s telecom market a “gold mine” in the 1980s because China was completely reliant on foreign equipment.

A Canadian ambassador said that Canadian companies would sell old technology to China and always stay a step ahead.
2/ Huawei had a hard time getting financing in the early days. State banks didn’t want to take a risk on them.

So Huawei set up a separate joint venture that brought in provincial & city telecom bureaus as investors. These local governments were also some of the first customers.
3/ Huawei’s founder Ren Zhengfei famously said: “A country without its own program-controlled switches is like one without an army.”

He also said this equipment was “related to national security” and “its software must held in the hands of the Chinese government.”
4/ From early on, China’s top leaders recognized Huawei’s critical role in helping to build China’s semiconductor industry.

“In 1996, Huawei was one of eight companies selected by Beijing for a $1 billion national semiconductor development program.”
5/ In the 1990s, Beijing was already helping Huawei sell telecom equipment to other countries.

“On a 1995 trip to eastern Europe, Vice-Premier Li brought along Huawei C&C08 switches as diplomatic gifts.”
6/ Founder Ren Zhengfei was afraid that Huawei would eventually be nationalized due to its national importance. He feared Huawei would become a lumbering state-owned enterprise, and he even turned down some state loans to prevent this.
7/ Premier Li Peng once asked Huawei’s Ren Zhengfei if Huawei equipment could be used to trace calls for national security purposes. Ren said that when a call was placed, they knew about it immediately. But they never said publicly whether these surveillance tools were developed.
8/ Huawei referred to its hard-charging sales team as a “wolf pack.”

CEO Ren Zhengfei held “mass resignation” events where salespeople had to write a work summary and a resignation letter and Ren would only sign one of them. (I bet Elon Musk would admire this approach.)
9/ In the 1990s, Huawei was actually only one of four major Chinese telecom equipment makers.

The favored national champion back then was a state-owned enterprise called Great Dragon built on China’s first breakthrough in telecom switches made by a military engineer.
10/ What happened to Great Dragon?

“In early 1996, a dozen of Great Dragon’s 04 switches abruptly failed due to a software problem. The company never recovered.”

China wisely didn’t put all its eggs in one basket but rather tried to foster competition among a set of players.
11/ Bribing Chinese officials was common and done not just by Huawei but also foreign telecom equipment companies. Nortel gave bottles of Johnny Walker. Ericsson admitted to the US Justice Department to offering Caribbean cruises.
12/ When Huawei was first expanding abroad, it faced well-established foreign competitors. So it began by expanding in rogue states—countries under Western sanctions or in conflict zones. This annoyed the NSA because it removed their ability to monitor these countries.
13/ Huawei and ZTE have a long and bitter rivalry, suing each other over intellectual property in countries around the world and going after each other’s customers.

ZTE is also based in Shenzhen but is mostly state-owned, which made foreign customers distrust it.
14/ In the 1990s, Chinese tech entrepreneurs looked up to IBM, including Huawei’s Ren Zhengfei. Huawei hired IBM consultants for a decade to help improve its operations.
15/ When Cisco sued Huawei for copying, Huawei found a clever counter-strategy: they partnered with Cisco’s longstanding rival 3Com. Huawei used 3Com’s patents as a shield, and 3Com got a low-cost manufacturing partner and access to China’s market.
16/ Cisco faced a difficult decision over whether to sue Huawei for copying. It was the top seller of routers in China and even sent a team of executives to Beijing before the lawsuit.

This delicate balance is one that many foreign companies have faced while working with China.

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More from @kyleichan

Apr 6
All Americans should think about this chart Image
The underlying chart comes from here:

I added the markers for NAFTA and China joining the WTO.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy…
Read 5 tweets
Mar 20
Every time someone talks about Chinese "overcapacity" as Chinese production exceeding global demand, I'll point to this supply & demand chart from econ 101.

China is shifting the global supply curve (blue) to the right. So global supply & demand intersect at a lower price.

1/🧵 Image
2/ Take solar panels. Chinese firms make a lot of solar panels very cheaply. These solar panels aren't just accumulating in a warehouse. They're being bought by customers in China and around the world.

As Chinese firms drive down the cost of production (helped historically with central and local government support), this drives down global prices for solar panels and increases the total amount of solar panels that the world buys and uses.

The chart here can be interpreted in two ways. The first is that the falling price of solar panels helps to drive up global deployment of solar power. The second is that as we make more solar panels, we get better at it, which drives down the cost of solar.

Both are true. And China is at the center of this process.Image
3/ There are other kinds of Chinese overcapacity that are real. In many industries in China--solar, wind, steel, shipbuilding--Chinese firms may be collectively "overproducing" which causes prices to fall too much and hurts long-term financial sustainability. baiguan.news/p/overcapacity…

This is called "involution" 内卷 and is different from what the West calls "overcapacity." See this great piece from @robert_baiguan's Baiguan newsletter:
Read 5 tweets
Mar 8
China is exploiting Trump’s attacks on US allies in a variety of ways.

In Europe, China is going on a charm offensive.

With Canada, China is building on top of the pain caused by Trump, retaliating now for Canadian tariffs back in August.

1/ 🧵
2/ With Europe, China has been saying that Europe should be involved in Ukraine negotiations. China has also offered lifting multiple sanctions for every sanction lifted by the EU.

See @fbermingham’s fantastic, in-depth report: scmp.com/news/china/dip…
3/ With Canada, China is retaliating now for tariffs that Canada imposed back in August on Chinese EVs, steel, & aluminum following similar US actions.

The timing & target of these new tariffs from China are quite the move—a double hit to US-Canada ties. on.ft.com/4id1zq8
Read 5 tweets
Mar 4
BYD is preparing to make over a million EVs a year outside of China.

BYD says each of its overseas factories will create thousands of jobs and that its international expansion is backed by the Chinese government.

1/ 🧵 Image
Much of BYD’s overseas expansion is in response to rising tariffs. Brazil has set rising tariffs on imported EVs. Turkey announced 40% extra tariffs on Chinese EVs. Hungary offers BYD a way around EU tariffs.

2/reuters.com/business/autos…
BYD’s Mexico plans are up in the air. BYD had plans for a large plant in Mexico and was scouting for a location. But these plans were put on hold leading up to the US election.
3/bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 5 tweets
Feb 18
Why is China’s EV adoption rate so high, accounting over 50% of new car sales?

One factor is China’s high-speed rail system. You don’t need to worry about EV battery range for long drives because you can take bullet trains instead.

New NBER paper from @HanmingF
🧵 1/ Image
Image
The paper looks at 328 prefecture cities in China from 2010 to 2023. The paper uses a classic staggered DID approach to show that EVs as a share of new and used car sales increased more in cities that got a high-speed rail line compared to cities that didn’t.
2/ Image
The paper also includes controls and robustness checks including IVs on conventional rail, straight line paths, controls on industrial policies, etc.

Incredibly, the effect is quite large, accounting for “up to one third of the increase in EV market share and sales in China.”
3/
Read 6 tweets
Oct 20, 2024
Japanese workers accepted and even embraced automation, driving a decade lead in industrial robots. Why?

Norms around lifetime employment for workers and enterprise-level unions. Robots didn’t just displace workers but allowed workers to switch to better jobs within firms.

1/ Image
An example is spot-welding robots. Outside Japan, welder’s unions might be against these robots which replace their jobs.

But in Japan, because workers expect their employment to be protected at the firm level, they welcomed robots that freed workers from tough welding jobs.

2/ Image
Another way of saying the same thing. This time from a Nikkei report.

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets

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