1/ The 2nd San Francisco gold rush has finally come to an end.
Gone is era of walking into a $200K job at 22 and saving a million by 30.
For decades, a 70th percentile engineer was guaranteed multiple offers as soon as they interviewed in SF.
That era is over.
Gone is era of walking into a $200K job at 22 and saving a million by 30.
For decades, a 70th percentile engineer was guaranteed multiple offers as soon as they interviewed in SF.
That era is over.
2/ Software engineers were top of the world from 2000-2020
But the easy path to wealth for the median software engineer is over
There were 100k+ people laid off from big tech in 2024, with more layoffs coming. Remote work has globalized salaries, AI is automating more jobs.
But the easy path to wealth for the median software engineer is over
There were 100k+ people laid off from big tech in 2024, with more layoffs coming. Remote work has globalized salaries, AI is automating more jobs.
3/ We saw this in the 80s with traders, 90s with hedge funds, & investment banks prior to 2008.
ChatGPT was the 2008 moment for software engineers. The market regime has forever changed.
But it’s not all bad news — if you’re exceptional.
ChatGPT was the 2008 moment for software engineers. The market regime has forever changed.
But it’s not all bad news — if you’re exceptional.
4/ The era of small, elite, high-leverage builders is here.
$1B companies will be built by 10-person teams. AI will drive efficiency. Productivity will skyrocket.
AI-first companies will dominate. GDP will go up in aggregate.
VC and PE dollars will flow even more in pursuit.
$1B companies will be built by 10-person teams. AI will drive efficiency. Productivity will skyrocket.
AI-first companies will dominate. GDP will go up in aggregate.
VC and PE dollars will flow even more in pursuit.
5/This next generation of builders won't need to be coders.
They'll be people who know how to wield AI to build things that matter.
Designers, product managers, and deep domain experts will have unprecedented leverage.
They'll be people who know how to wield AI to build things that matter.
Designers, product managers, and deep domain experts will have unprecedented leverage.
6/ Businesses with considered purchasing cycles and a human that makes a purchasing decisions (e.g. govt) will become tremendously more valuable.
Most other software will look like consumer packaged goods / DTC than the software industry we've known for the last 30 years.
Most other software will look like consumer packaged goods / DTC than the software industry we've known for the last 30 years.
7/ We saw a glimpse with the rise of mobile and the cloud. We lowered the cost of building software by 10-100x and college drop outs could start companies.
We will now drop the cost of producing software by another 1000x.
A new, unknown archetype of founder will emerge.
We will now drop the cost of producing software by another 1000x.
A new, unknown archetype of founder will emerge.
8/ But for the above average software engineer, the game has changed.
The easy money era is done. The golden age of software engineers is over.
The 3rd San Francisco gold rush has begun.
The easy money era is done. The golden age of software engineers is over.
The 3rd San Francisco gold rush has begun.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
