Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Feb 10 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The Gripen E is least capable fighter produced in Europe. Both Rafale and Eurofighter are much more capable and those two are still less capable than the F-35A.

Even the F-15EX is more capable than the Gripen E. No Air Force with access to either F-35A, Rafale or Eurofighter
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will buy the Gripen E. It's just not happening.

The Gripen E carries the least amount of weapons over the shortest distance.

And stop with "Gripen E is improved for arctic conditions": where do you think Eielson Air Force Base is?
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Besides, at 10,000m / 33,000ft the temperature is -50°C / -58°F. Much colder than "arctic conditions".

And the "Gripen E can take off from roads" / "only needs a short runway" arguments - roads: so can the F-35A, so can the Eurofighter, etc.
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And if a very short runway is your main concern... nothing can compete with the shortness of F-35B runways.

Sure you sacrifice fuel and weapons load if you operate F-35B instead of F-35A, but even the F-35B carries more fuel and weapons than a Gripen E, because the
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advertised Gripen E weapons load requires to cut back two thirds on the internal fuel, and the advertised Gripen E combat range requires external fuel tanks.

The Gripen E is a good fighter; surely better than anything the russians have, but it is a lightweight fighter, which
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just can't compete with the West's best fighters: F-35A, Eurofighter, Rafale, F-15EX.

It's main competitor is actually the F-16... but the newest F-16 version, the F-16V Block 70/72 is also a better fighter than the Gripen E.
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Of all the mentioned fighters, the F-35A is the cheapest. Big production run equals lower cost.

And unlike the Gripen E (the third generation of the Gripen after Gripen A/B and Gripen C/D) the F-35 will evolve: new variants and weapons will be added over the next 40+ years.
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The F-35 also has by far the best radar and avionics, and that is the reason 🇦🇺🇧🇪🇨🇦🇨🇿🇩🇰🇫🇮🇩🇪🇬🇷🇮🇱🇮🇹🇯🇵🇳🇱🇳🇴🇵🇱🇷🇴🇸🇬🇰🇷🇨🇭🇬🇧 have chosen the F-35.
Only 🇧🇷 has chosen the Gripen E, which in the defence black hole South America are, and will be for decades, the most advanced fighters.
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So for Brazil the Gripen E makes sense, also for i.e. Ireland, as they just need to patrol their airspace.

But for everyone else in Europe, the F-35A is a better choice, followed by the Eurofighter or the Rafale. If you can't get these three, buy F-16 Block 70 as 🇧🇬🇸🇰 did.
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More from @noclador

Nov 13
I was asked to talk about Austria's Armed Forces... which is a bit boring, because surprisingly their armed forces get so much right.

Yes, the Austrians are some of the worst sanctions ignorers when it comes to russia, and they host the biggest russian signals intelligence
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station outside of russia, and are home to the largest number of russian intelligence operators after London, but when it comes to the Austrian Army and Austrian Air Force procurement there is little to criticize... except of course that many of their officers are compromised
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by the russians and the austrian defence ministry leaks every bit of intelligence to moscow...

Anyway, unlike the other neutral EU member (an island that spends GDP-wise less on its armed forces than the Vatican), Austria has a proper air force and a proper army; both of
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Read 22 tweets
Nov 7
Italy has ordered its first KF41 Lynx infantry fighting vehicles... but there is a twist.

As the Italian Army is in a rush to ready its forces to battle invading russians in the Baltics (& Finland), the first 5 × KF41 will arrive within weeks in the Hungarian configuration.
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That means there won't be any Italianization of the first 5 × KF41. The Italian Army feels that it can't wait for that. Training has to start ASAP.

Therefore these 5 × KF41 will come with Rheinmetall's Lance Turret with 30mm MK30-2/ABM autocannon. Along with these KF41 Italy
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will receive training and simulation systems to begin training troops ASAP.

This order also includes 16 × KF41 in a hybrid version: the chassis will come from the Hungarian production line, but these KF41 will receive Leonardo's Hitfist turret with Leonardo's 30mm X-Gun.
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Read 8 tweets
Oct 30
I am relaxed about the US ending the rotation of a light brigade through Romania.

Yes, it is bad optics and russia will use it for its propaganda, BUT two armored brigades, a combat aviation brigade, a division artillery, a division sustainment brigade, and a division HQ
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continue to rotate to Poland and the Baltics.

Right now the:
• 3rd Infantry Division HQ (arrived in Poland 4 days ago - photo)
• 1st Armored Brigade, 1st Infantry Division
• 3rd Armored Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division
• 3rd Division Artillery
• 3rd Combat Aviation Brigade
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are in Poland and the Baltics.

Ending the rotation of a light brigade to Romania is a far less bad than ending the rotation of the armored brigades. It is also understandable as the US Army's light divisions (10th Mountain, 25th Infantry, 82nd Airborne, 101st Airborne) are
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Read 4 tweets
Sep 13
Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?

There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia
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could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
2/5
troops in Belarus would be noticed by NATO (and ordinary people in Belarus, who would upload 100s of videos of the arriving russians).
In summary the main risk isn't that russia suddenly seizes and fortifies the Suwałki Gap... the main risk is that russia starts building up
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Read 5 tweets
Sep 7
The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.

If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.

This will be a unsettling thread:
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This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.

To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,


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and at the WWII Battle of the Atlantic. We will also have to take a deep dive into the Cold War and that era's submarines and submarine tactics.

In WWI the Imperial German Navy sent some 300+ submarines into the Atlantic, which sank more than 4,000 merchant vessels. The UK
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Read 41 tweets
Sep 4
2 days ago I did a thread about the reasons russia can't defeat Ukraine and yet is still a deadly threat to Europe and NATO (link to the thread the next tweet).

Today I will talk about three of the fronts of a russia-Europe war:
1) Black Sea
2) Baltic Sea
3) North Atlantic

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These three fronts will be air and sea battles, while Finland and the Baltics will be air and land battles; about which I will talk in another thread in the coming days.

I do not believe the US under control of Trump or Vance would come to the aid
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of Europe... we will be on our own, which will have very dire consequences for the battle in the North Atlantic and thus the UK.

First, let's look at the Black Sea, where russia's Black Sea Fleet has already been savaged by the Ukrainians (pic: the sinking cruiser Moskva).
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Read 36 tweets

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