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beowulf888 Profile picture
@beowulf888
Feb 11 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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6-1/ My COVID update for epidemiological weeks 5-6 of 2025.

Biobot's latest wastewater numbers indicate the current XEC wave has receded a bit—but we might see a secondary bump as the numbers level off in West and Midwest, and climb a bit in the South. Image
6-2/ As US COVID waves go, wastewater numbers indicate this has been on the low side, but we don't really know if the viral shedding of JN.1 and its descendants has remained consistent with previous variants. Image
6-3/ When it comes to ED visits, hospitalization, and mortality, this has been the mildest wave ever in the US. But... Image
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6-4/ But compared to the dominant XEC, LP.8.1x has a high growth rate. Maybe it will create a smaller secondary wave at the tail end of this one? Or maybe it will surpass XEC?—but I suspect our refreshed NAbs from JN.1 and XEC will prevent it from creating a bigger wave. Image
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6-5/ Even though the Morbidity and Mortality stats are no longer being updated and displayed on the CDC website, we can still get the archived stats out of Wonder. And Wonder shows us that COVID came in 14th out of the 15 most common causes of death in 2024. Image
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6-6/ Meanwhile, as a percentage of ED visits and test positivity, influenza is leaving COVID in the dust this respiratory season. Flu A (of the non-Avian kind) still dominates, but influenza B cases are starting to rise. Image
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6-7/ RSV rates are dropping now. But this is the third respiratory season in row where RSV infections have been higher than the pre-COVID RSV waves. According to this paper in Nature, RSV-B at least, has some new mutations that make it more infectious.
nature.com/articles/s4146…Image
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6-8/ The USDA and APHIS are still reporting on A(H5) in poultry and livestock. Poultry infections may have peaked in December. The January Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook says there are indications that fewer birds were slaughtered last month. Image
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6-9/ In the last 30 days, 35 new dairy herds were infected with A(H5) in California, and 7 in Nevada. inThe NV infections were all in the past 10 days. And a dairy worker in Nevada was infected. His only symptoms were pink eye, though. Image
6-10/ That's it for this update. See you again in two epi weeks.
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More from @beowulf888

beowulf888 Profile picture
Jan 27
4-1/ My COVID update for epidemiological weeks 3-4 of 2025.

For the 1st time since 1952, the CDC stopped publishing its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMRW)—the last update was on 16 Jan. Is the Trump administration emulating Chinese secrecy practices? Image
4-2/ Other CDC data pages seem to be up and running, though. Their wastewater numbers seem to indicate the current XEC COVID wave has peaked. Biobot hasn't published an update recently, so I don't have a reality check for CDC's data. Image
4-3/ Biofire's proprietary Syndromic Trends also shows COVID dropping off as a percentage of detected respiratory viruses. RSV may also be on downward curve, but influenza is rising fast. Image
Read 13 tweets
beowulf888 Profile picture
Jan 14
2-1/ Happy New Epidemiological Year! This is my COVID update for epidemiological weeks 1-2 of 2025.

Biobot shows wastewater concentrations rising steeply in the South and Midwest. 5 weeks into this wave nat'l ww concentrations have risen at ~2x rate of the previous KP.3x wave. Image
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2-2/ CDC's ww graph shows a higher rise in the Midwest and less so in the South. Of course, the CDC normalizes its numbers against the previous year, so these are relative numbers—not avg SARS2/PMMoV concentrations in CpmL units. Biobot methodology seems more straightforward. Image
2-3/ COVID hospitalizations are on the rise, but for some reason, the CDC seems to be predicting that the data, once tabulated, will show a drop in hospitalizations in the final week of December. This seems counterintuitive, with wastewater numbers rising so steeply. Image
Read 12 tweets
beowulf888 Profile picture
Dec 29, 2024
52-1/ COVID update for epidemiological weeks 51-52 of 2024.

Here we go again! National SARS2 wastewater numbers are climbing quickly, especially in the NE and Midwest. Image
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52-2/ Of the big 3 respiratory viruses (per CDC), COVID still trails RSV and influenza in test positivity, but has now passed RSV in the number of ED visits. Image
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52-3/ COVID deaths are probably still falling but hospitalizations (based on incomplete data) are rising. And a rise in deaths will follow as hospitalizations rise. Image
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Read 23 tweets
beowulf888 Profile picture
Dec 17, 2024
50-1/ COVID update for epidemiological weeks 49-50 of 2024.

As of a week ago (epi week 49), COVID joined Influenza and RSV as a URTI that shows an upward trend in ED visits. Image
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50-2/ The folks at Biobot haven't posted an update for two weeks, so I don't have any good aggregate wastewater numbers for the US (b/c the CDC doesn't publish nat'l data in CpmL units). So, let's zoom in on what's happening in some big city sewersheds. NY State first... Image
50-3/ Notice that both the Buffalo and the greater NYC metro areas seem to be COVID hotspots. All of NYC's 14 sewersheds show upward trends in SARS2 wastewater concentrations.
Manhattan's two sewersheds below. Wards Island shows the steepest increase of all NYC's sewersheds. Image
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Read 16 tweets
beowulf888 Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024
48-1/ COVID update for epidemiological weeks 47-48 of 2024—but since this is the season of URT infections, and COVID-19 is on hiatus, this week's update will also look at the other respiratory viruses that are making us sick at the moment.
48-2/ Today is the fifth anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic. The symptoms of patient zero, a 55-year-old male, began on 1 December 2019. He wasn't hospitalized until the following 8 Dec. But by the end of Dec, 41 people were hospitalized with a novel form of pneumonia. Image
48-3/ On 28 Dec 2019, Dr. Lili Ren, a virologist at Union Medical College in Beijing submitted a complete sequence of SARS-CoV-2 to GenBank, but it failed to include the proper annotations & wasn't made public. Not until 10 Jan that a sequence was available on GenBank & GISAID.
Read 16 tweets
beowulf888 Profile picture
Nov 19, 2024
46-1/ COVID update for epidemiological weeks 45-46 of 2024.

I wanted to move these updates over to the blue skies beyond Muskland, but ThreadReader doesn't work over there yet. Also, I bookmark a lot of interesting posts, but that's not a feature over there. So here we go...
46-2/ COVID wastewater numbers remain low, but SARS2 is still circulating. XEC's growth rate has plateaued in the US (and it might be dropping), so I don't think the next wave will be an XEC.x wave. But... Image
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46-3/ But Ben Murrell's model seems to indicate that XEC still has wave potential—h/t to @BenjMurrell (at least, I think that's his TwiXter handle). Cov-Spectrum shows It's taking off in the UK and Germany. But UK cases are still dropping. From this, I conclude that XEC is... Image
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Read 26 tweets

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