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Feb 11 9 tweets 7 min read Read on X
1/🧵

On the #Pokrovsk front, #Russia 🇷🇺 can't keep up the pressure anymore and was forced to downscale its offensive efforts.
#Ukraine 🇺🇦 is exploiting this by counter-attacking in many places along this sector, while fortifications are being strongly reinforced with a novelty: the great use of barbed wire.

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Dachne - Andriivka
This is the most difficult part of the whole Pokrovsk front for the Ukrainians.

Russian forces pressure Kostyantynopil constantly, but are always repelled. Without changes.

Zelenivka, south of Ulakly, reportedly changed hands twice today. In the morning, the Russians captured the village, but a Ukrainian counterattack was able to clear part of the village in the afternoon. The destruction of 2 Russian tanks and 3 MTLBs is reported. Russian forces are also attacking east of Zelenivka on the opposite bank of the Sukhyi Yali river; extremely harsh fighting is still ongoing.

In Dachne, the Ukrainians still control the south-westernmost corner of the town. Nonetheless, the Russians started accumulating infantry in the center for further assaults on the remaining Ukrainian positions in the village and around it. Fighting continues.

The most difficult situation is Andriivka, which some sources give as practically captured. Here the Russians consolidated and secured last week's gains and continue wedging themselves in the town. At the moment, they're trying to fully secure positions on the western buildings of the town. The northern part is still controlled by Ukraine, but north of that, the Russians entered a trench system located on the dominant hill overlooking Andriivka itself, which endangers every Ukrainian position south of it.

The Ukrainians will have to retreat in the very near future from Dachne and nearby positions to Ulakly to avoid encirclement, as Kostyantynopil is already being attacked from both sides. After, the Ukrainians will fall back to the line Kostyantynopil - Rozlyv, before falling back again to the more solid Oleksiivka - Bahatyr - Komar line, where they're expected to hold out for some time.Image
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3/🧵

Sribne - Nadezhdynka (Nadiivka)
The Russians are clearing the last buildings in the northern part of Sribne and are constantly attacking Zaporizhzhia. After capturing the central part of the town, they moved fighting to the western part, where it is still ongoing.

Russian forces are trying to recapture lost ground after a localized Ukrainian counter-attack in the forests south of Nadezhdynka, while also trying to capture a treeline that approaches Preobrazhenka from the north, threatening Ukrainian positions in Zaporizhzhia.

In picture #2, the next suitable lines of defense.Image
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Uspenivka - Udachne
After weeks of extremely harsh fighting, Uspenivka now currently acts as a gray zone, even though it is possible to define a frontline (picture 3): the Russians were recorded north-west of Uspenivka and in the basements of the south-westernmost buildings. They are also trying to clear Tsentralnaya Street and enter Gagarina Street, but 3 Ukrainian-controlled strongholds block their way. In the video below you can see just how ruined the town is after such fighting.

After a Ukrainian counterattack in Udachne's Mine "Pokrovs'ke VPS-1", the Russians were able to recapture it and gain a foothold in the easternmost residential buildings, where they were hit by Ukrainian drones. The Russians constantly try to break in the town center but are always repulsed and forced to fall back. Udachne is extremely important, because it's the last big town before the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and it also acts as a logistical hub. After is the railway, which the Russians can use as what I call "an infantry highway", which would be extremely inconvenient for the Ukrainians at the Dnipro border.

Again, in picture #3 you can see the most solid Ukrainian fallback lines in the region. These are mostly concentrated behind the pond and in the treelines and fields covered by barbed wire, especially south of Uspenivka and south-west of Udachne. North of the latter is a big industrial zone, which also works as a very solid defense node.
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Kotlyne - Pishchane
This is one of the most interesting regions.
Here, the Ukrainian Skala battalion and other units were involved in a series of successful counter-attacks. The southern hamlet of Kotlyne was almost completely recaptured, and reports of Ukrainian advancements north of Kotlyne are present, claiming the Russians retreated to the mine north-east of the town. Pishchane was also likely completely liberated, according to DS and various Russian and Ukrainian reports, while the Russians are also slowly retreating in mine N°3 just east of Pishchane. In general, the Russian spearhead was blunted here, and Russia is discouraged from further attacks because of threat of encirclement and deterioration of logistics. Fierce fighting is still ongoing, updates are to come in the next few days.Image
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6/🧵

Dachenske - Lysivka
Here too the Ukrainians successfully counter-attacked and secured the town's eastern part. Here less information was revealed, and no geolocations proving this advancement has been released as of now. In Lysivka too the Ukrainians claim advancements, but there too no geolocations to prove these claims are present for now. More updates to come.Image
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7/🧵

Vozdvyzhenka - Myrnohrad
A bit like Andriivka, the edges of the Pokrovsk sector are the hottest. The Russians were able to secure positions on the Pokrovsk - Kostyantynivka highway exchange crossing the blown-up bridge and continue trying to advance further north of it. The Ukrainians were able to conduct a successful counter-attack in Vodyane Druhe too and briefly recaptured the meat processing plant "Ukrainian Bacon", before the Russians started fighting for it again today. Here, opportunities to stop the Russians are present, as clearly visible from the picture below. Unfortunately, though, Ukraine has a serious lack of manpower here, and the situation is still looking quite bad for the defendors.Image
8/🧵

Thanks for reading this analysis on the Pokrovsk front!
If you liked it, consider reposting to help my channel grow and following me. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments or DM me personally. Next will be a comprehensive thread about Ukrainian fortification works all over the front. Stay tuned!

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More from @Playfra0

Jan 26
1/🧵

The #Russians continue attacking #Andriyivka and have successes on occasionally gaining a small foothold on the easternmost houses of the town. Fighting is going on for a vital chain of strongholds on a dominant.

Map: google.com/maps/d/u/1/vie…Image
2/🧵

The #Russians entered #Nadiyivka/#Nadezhdynka and the orchards and forests south of the settlement, likely with the aim of creating a pincer on #Sribne and #Zaporizhzhia. Image
3/🧵

The #Russians captured the ventilation shaft of the "Pokrovs'ke" mines and moved west from it. They also advanced in #Kotlyne and entered the "#Kovalykha" farm and bypassed it from the north. The first trench systems belonging to the outer #Pokrovsk ring were also captured. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 18
1/🧵

The #Russians break through near #Udachne and #Kotlyne at the railway and start fighting for the mines, but the #Ukrainians still have a strong line after. This thread will be on the still urgent and critical #Russian breakthrough in the area. Image
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2/🧵

Recently, the #Russians captured both of the treelines on the railway line's sides between #Udachne and #Kotlyne, crucial defense hubs, and are fighting for the key mines just behind the railway, which normally constitute formidable obstacles Image
3/🧵

As of now, the #Russians entered mine VPS-1 (#Udachne) and control the south-eastern part of mine N°2 (#Kotlyne). The railway between the two settlements is also in #Russian hands, while mine Donets'kstal'-M3, N°1 and their ventilation shafts are under #Ukrainian control.
Read 13 tweets
Jan 13
1/🧵

The #Russians are advancing, but the #Ukrainians have not been idle in the rear.

This thread will be a mix of analyses about what #Ukraine has dug this winter and about how this correlates with the current tactical-strategical situation at the front. Happy reading! Image
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2/🧵

This thread will be organized as follows:
we will move from the #Zaporhzhzhia front to the #Kurakhove one, then #Pokrovsk, #Toretsk and finally #ChasivYar. I will also say a few words about other less active fronts in terms of digging.
3/🧵

Let's start.
The Zaporizhzhia front's defense counts on two main strongholds: #Orikhiv and #Hulyaypole. The #Ukrainians started digging long ago in front and behind these two crucial cities, which now gives us two well-built defensive lines to look at. Image
Read 23 tweets
Dec 14, 2024
1/🧵

Chasiv Yar, the legendary canal city.

Under attack for more than 8 months and still standing, this thread will explore its strengths and weaknesses, what makes up the city's defense, what the current situation is, and what will happen next and after the fall of the city. Image
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2/🧵

Chasiv Yar is a medium-sized town with ~12,000 pre-war population (about half of Selydove's). Where the city makes up, though, is in surface area: ~20.000 km² (double Selydove's). The city is also divided in 11 districts. Image
3/🧵

Chasiv Yar is cut by the famous Sivers'kyy Donets' - Donbas canal between the Kanal and the Zhovtnevyy & Novyy districts. North and south of the town are two big forests and 5 mines. At the town center is the refractory plant, near which is a multi-story district. Image
Read 19 tweets
Nov 29, 2024
1/🧵

Critical situation south of Pokrovs'k: Shevchenko under serious threat.

As the Russians continue exploiting the Zhovte gap in the Ukrainian lines, the vital town of Shevchenko and the Solonyi river seem increasingly in reach of the Russians. Let's analyze the situation. Image
2/🧵

After Selydove's fall, the Russians have seemingly found a weak spot in the Ukrainian lines behind the city, advancing much more easily and consistently. After capturing Vyshneve, Petrivka and Hryhorivka, they're now fighting for Zhovte and are now at Shevchenko's doorstep. Image
3/🧵

The Russians' main goal here is three: force the Solona river (1.7km left), cut the T-05-15 Shevchenko-Andriivka road (4.3km left for fire control, 4.9km for physical control), and capture Udachne's coking coal/steel mine (13.4 km left), vital for steel production. Image
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Read 21 tweets
Nov 26, 2024
1/🧵

The Novomlyns'k crossing: threatening development or logistical nightmare?

With this thread I'm going to analyze the Russian bridgehead over the Oskil river created on November 24th and it's implications as time goes by from a territorial point of view. Happy reading! Image
2/🧵

After daring breakthrough attempts in Kup'yans'k itself, on November 24th Russian forces attacked arguably the most stable direction of the front: the Dvorichna front. This front has not seen any contact line changes since mid-september 2022. Image
3/🧵

The Russians likely chose to attack this front for a main reason: the unpreparadedness of Ukrainian forces and defenses here. The area is almost completely devoid of prepared fortifications, and the number of Ukrainian forces defending is likely quite low. Image
Read 12 tweets

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