Crémieux Profile picture
Feb 12 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
The biggest news of the day should once again be about DOGE.

A new Executive Order was passed a few minutes ago.

It empowers DOGE to spearhead the complete reorganization of the federal governmentđź§µ Image
The first part of this Order is simple:

The OMB will put out a plan to make the federal workforce smaller and more efficient, including a stipulation that agencies must remove four existing employees for each new hire, with some exceptions. Image
The second part is meatier.

New hires have to be approved by newly-installed DOGE Team Leads in each agency. These Team Leads will report what goes on in the agency they're assigned to on a monthly basis.

But that's not even the big part yet. Image
Third, agency heads will prepare for a massive reduction in the federal workforce.

This workforce reduction will apply to employees not performing necessary and statutorily mandated functions, so if Congress isn't protecting your job, you're likely leaving. Image
Fourth, suitability judgments about the excepted service will be expanded.

People who do not meet certain legal obligations, people who do not certify NDA compliance, and people who steal or misuse government resources are deemed no longer suitable for employment in it. Image
Here's the really big part of this order. It's kind of buried down deep, but it's very important:

Agencies are ordered to develop a comprehensive reorganization plan that identifies offices that can be purged because they lack statutory protections, and offices to consolidate. Image
Putting this all together, what the Order entails is a massive reorganization of the federal workforce and the streamlining of the civil service to make its operation line up with the goals of DOGE.

Not only that, but it empowers DOGE by embedding Team Leads for oversight.
Couple this with the February 4 OPM memo on CIOs, and what we have is staggering:

The federal government will be centralized, stripped down, and more intimately controlled by the President and his delegates, with control enhanced via DOGE.

This is the biggest news of the day, and it's hard to overstate just how big it is.

Because the federal government has grown so unwieldy that no one can provide you with a semblance of an outline of it, measures like this may just be needed to tame the beast.

Get ready!
You can read the EO here: whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Nov 18
Property taxes should, in theory, make it so buying a home is more affordable and young people will have increased access to home ownership.

Let's look through the literature to see what really happensđź§µ

Firstly, higher property taxes get older people to move. Image
Higher property taxes act as leverage since they're capitalized into house prices.

This reduces the number of people who own multiple homes, increases general ownership, and increases young ownership even more. Image
Property tax exemptions are popular because the old feel like they shouldn't have to pay anything to live in their homes.

Exemptions shift homeownership to older ages and make America less mobile because people live in their homes for longer. Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 18
There's a popular belief that family wealth is gone in three generations.

The first earns it, the second stewards it, and the third spends it away: from shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations!

But how true is this belief?

Gregory Clark has new evidenceđź§µ Image
The first thing to note is that family wealth is correlated across many generations. For example, in medieval England, this is how wealth at death correlates across six generations.

It correlates substantially enough to persist for twelve generations at observed rates of decay: Image
But why?

The dominant theory among laypeople is social: that the wealth is directly transmitted.

This is testable, and the Malthusian era provides us with lots of data for testing. Image
Read 19 tweets
Nov 18
The Catholic Church helped to modernize the West due to its ban on cousin marriage and its disdain for adoption, but also by way of its opposition to polygyny.

The origin of this disdain arguably lies with Church Fathers like Justin Martyr, Irenaeus, and Tertullianđź§µ Image
Justin Martyr, in his Dialogue with Trypho argues with a Jew that Christians are the ones living in continuity with God's true intentions.

Justin sees Genesis 2 ("the two shall become one flesh") as normative.

In his apologetic world, Christians are supposed to transcend lust.Image
Irenaeus, in Against Heresies, is attacking Gnostics (Basilides, Carpocrates), whose sexual practices he finds scandalous.

To him, "temperance dwells, self-restraint is practiced, monogamy is observed"—polygyny is a doctrinal and moral deviation from creation affirmation.Image
Read 16 tweets
Nov 17
The effects of charter schools on student test scores are meta-analytically estimated to be small.

In this study, the largest estimated effect was estimated to be equivalent to ~1.35 IQ points, for mathematics scores, which consistently showed larger effects than reading scores. Image
Similarly, the estimated effect of parents' preferred schools and of elite public secondary schools on test scores is around zero. Image
More interestingly, it seems charter school openings lead to competition that marginally boosts non-charter student performance and reduces absenteeism by very small degrees:
Read 12 tweets
Nov 12
Amazing!

The missing heritability issue between SNP heritability methods and traditional pedigree-based estimates has now shrunken to just 12%.

Thanks to large-scale whole-genome data and simultaneously estimated phenotypes, there's not much missing heritability left! Image
This analysis has several advantages compared to earlier ones.

The most obvious is the whole-genome data combined with a large sample size. All earlier whole-genome heritability estimates have been made using smaller samples, and thus had far greater uncertainty.
The next big thing is that the SNP and pedigree heritability estimates came from the same sample.

This can matter a lot.

If one sample has a heritability of 0.5 for a trait and another has a heritability of 0.4, it'd be a mistake to chalk the difference up to the method.
Read 16 tweets
Nov 12
This policy change has resulted in liberal experts coming out of the woodwork to allege that the policy is...

Intended to discriminate against Hispanics and Indians!

This one even alleged that this is discrimination on the basis of genetic race differences!Image
Trump deserves some praise for getting people to fess up to their hereditarian views on this matter.

Also, frankly, the policy is reasonable.

No fat people, no psychos, no sick people who will be burdens.

The only exception should be for those *paying for treatment here*. Image
Read 4 tweets

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