Crémieux Profile picture
Feb 12, 2025 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
The biggest news of the day should once again be about DOGE.

A new Executive Order was passed a few minutes ago.

It empowers DOGE to spearhead the complete reorganization of the federal governmentđź§µ Image
The first part of this Order is simple:

The OMB will put out a plan to make the federal workforce smaller and more efficient, including a stipulation that agencies must remove four existing employees for each new hire, with some exceptions. Image
The second part is meatier.

New hires have to be approved by newly-installed DOGE Team Leads in each agency. These Team Leads will report what goes on in the agency they're assigned to on a monthly basis.

But that's not even the big part yet. Image
Third, agency heads will prepare for a massive reduction in the federal workforce.

This workforce reduction will apply to employees not performing necessary and statutorily mandated functions, so if Congress isn't protecting your job, you're likely leaving. Image
Fourth, suitability judgments about the excepted service will be expanded.

People who do not meet certain legal obligations, people who do not certify NDA compliance, and people who steal or misuse government resources are deemed no longer suitable for employment in it. Image
Here's the really big part of this order. It's kind of buried down deep, but it's very important:

Agencies are ordered to develop a comprehensive reorganization plan that identifies offices that can be purged because they lack statutory protections, and offices to consolidate. Image
Putting this all together, what the Order entails is a massive reorganization of the federal workforce and the streamlining of the civil service to make its operation line up with the goals of DOGE.

Not only that, but it empowers DOGE by embedding Team Leads for oversight.
Couple this with the February 4 OPM memo on CIOs, and what we have is staggering:

The federal government will be centralized, stripped down, and more intimately controlled by the President and his delegates, with control enhanced via DOGE.

This is the biggest news of the day, and it's hard to overstate just how big it is.

Because the federal government has grown so unwieldy that no one can provide you with a semblance of an outline of it, measures like this may just be needed to tame the beast.

Get ready!
You can read the EO here: whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

May 26
As a recap on my appearance, Eli Lilly is pursuing:

- A one-dose drug for preventing most heart disease
- A vaccine for chlamydia
- A vaccine for gonorrhea
- A vaccine for Epstein-Barr
- A drug that lets you stay awake longer and feel more rested

It's a golden age of pharma! Image
And remember, Eli Lilly's big break historically was the University of Toronto licensing them to produce insulin.

They started off by giving it out for free, saving the world's diabetics at a time when there was no treatment available.

They've always been a force for good. Image
I think

- The heart disease drug will succeed
-- Will it commercialize? It can, easily. But I'm 50/50 due to the competition
- Chlamydia and gonorrhea vax will succeed, but I don't see much commercial potential with Lilly
- EBV vaccine will fail with Lilly, succeed eventually
Read 5 tweets
May 25
Eli Lilly has done it.

They've gone and made what seems to be a powerful, permanent gene therapy for LDL cholesterol.

That means they'll be able to effectively prevent most heart disease with a single infusion! Image
Almost all of the side effects were just things you see with any infusion. Some people react poorly to needles and having to sit for a while🤷‍♀️

And that's what we expect, because the people with good PCSK9 genes naturally are totally fine. This therapy catches the rest of us up!
This is amazing stuff, beating drug administration because it's permanent, and it only gets better from here.

We are going to get so healthy, so fast. Our grandkids are going to hear about heart attacks and have never actually seen one.

Source: nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 5 tweets
May 24
Are White women the primary beneficiaries of affirmative action?

That's a real claim that's commonly advanced by journalists, and the claim has gone so far that it's even made its way into academic publications and policy.

But the claim is completely falseđź§µ Image
This claim doesn't make a lot of sense. After all, shouldn't the primary beneficiaries of affirmative action be the people who the policies primarily target?

In America, that's African Americans and, among them, women get an added benefit. How could it be Whites? Image
To figure out where the claim comes from, I started reading supposed sources.

Often enough, journalists will just take the claim for granted without providing *any* source.

It's just tacit knowledge now, and that's not good!

Then, when you hit a source, it's not supportive: Image
Read 13 tweets
May 7
World War I devastated Britain and likely slowed down its technological progressđź§µ

The reason being, the youth are the engine of innovation.

Areas that saw more deaths saw larger declines in patenting in the years following the war. Image
To figure out the innovation effects of losing a large portion of a generation's young men who were just coming into the primes of their lives, the authors needed four pieces of data.

The first were the numbers and pre-war locations of soldiers who died. Image
The next components were the numbers and locations of patent filings.

If you look at both graphs, you see obvious total population effects. So, areas must be normalized. Image
Read 12 tweets
May 5
New Pangram validation!

You know how most books on Amazon are AI slop now? If you didn't, look at the publication numbers.

Compare those to the proportion Pangram flags as AI-generated. It's fully aligned with the implied numbers based on the rise over 2022 publication levels! Image
Similarly, the rise of pro se litigants has come with a rise in case filings detected as being AI-generated, and with virtually zero false-positives before AI was around.

You can also see the rise of AI-generated text and yet more evidence for Pangram's validity from looking at different journalists.

Large portions of the journalistic profession are lazy, so they cheat when they can.

For example, the Guardian's Bryan Graham = slop Image
Read 9 tweets
May 3
Pierre Guillaume Frédéric le Play argued that France's early fertility decline was driven by its inheritance reforms, where estates had to be split up equally to all of the kids, including the girls.

There's likely something to this!đź§µ Image
For reference, the French Revolution ushered in a number of egalitarian laws.

A major example of these had to do with inheritance, and in particular with partibility.

In some areas of France, there was partible inheritance, and in others, it was impartible. Image
Partible inheritance refers to inheritance spread among all of a person's heirs, sometimes including girls, sometimes not.

Impartible inheritance on the other hands refers to the situation where the head of an estate can nominate a particular heir to get all or a select portion. Image
Read 11 tweets

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