Pekka Kallioniemi Profile picture
Feb 12 18 tweets 7 min read Read on X
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll discuss how Estonia deals with the Russian threat. Estonia’s Internal Security Service (KAPO) published their 2023-2024 annual review some time ago, and it’s packed with insights on Russian hybrid operations in the region.

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Estonia is at the frontlines against Russia’s hybrid war, and they’ve been targeted by the Kremlin for decades. Russia’s main goal remains the same: undermine Estonia’s constitutional order. To do this, they use intimidation, propaganda & cyber warfare to stir unrest.

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Like in all Baltic countries, one of their major tools is the manipulation of ethnic Russians in Estonia. The Kremlin pushes propaganda to create divisions, but recent surveys show integration is improving. The Kremlin is losing its grip.

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Russia has also been orchestrating hybrid attacks. These include fake bomb threats at Estonian schools, coordinated cyber attacks, misinformation campaigns on social media, and pressuring Russian citizens abroad to act in the Kremlin’s interests.

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In 2023, Russian intelligence services conducted several hybrid operations at the Estonian border. They harassed Ukrainian refugees at checkpoints, filmed staged migrant crossings for propaganda, and used FSB agents to intimidate travelers.

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Kremlin-backed Orthodox leader Metropolitan Eugene was expelled from Estonia in 2024. He was a key player in Russian influence operations, pushing Moscow’s agenda under the guise of religion. The Russian Orthodox Church has long been a tool…

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…of the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns. It plays a role in justifying Russia’s actions in Ukraine, spreading anti-Western narratives & fostering division in countries with Orthodox communities. Estonia has acted decisively to curb its influence.
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Russian “comedians” Vovan and Lexus have made prank calls around Europe, impersonating as foreign officials and tricking Western leaders like Giorgia Meloni. They also tried to trick the former Estonian PM Kaja Kallas, but she didn’t fall for it.

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Sanctioned Russian media, like Sputnik, still try to operate in Estonia. In 2024, KAPO arrested a person secretly working for Rossiya Segodnya, violating EU sanctions. The Kremlin understands how important it is to control the local media space.

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Cybersecurity threats have surged. Russian and Iranian hackers have targeted Estonia’s critical infrastructure, focusing on water and heating systems. Meanwhile, Russian state-backed cybercriminals tried to sabotage aid to Ukraine.

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But it's not only Russia conducting hybrid operations in Estonia - the CCP intelligence is targeting researchers, businesses, and government data, using economic influence and pressure tactics. A Chinese agent was recently sentenced to 8.5 years for spying in Estonia.

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Russian intelligence is still using embassies around the world as spy hubs. Estonia has expelled 18 diplomats/spies since 1991. Moscow is desperately trying to rebuild its intelligence networks, but so far they’ve failed miserably.

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Russians in Estonia face intense recruitment pressure from Moscow. The Kremlin calls for their loyalty & many are targeted for intelligence work.Recently, Estonian Aivo Peterson attempted to create an “anti-Estonian” movement & was arrested for that.
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Estonia has been cracking down on risky behaviors that could pose security threats. This includes gambling debts and financial vulnerabilities, unreported income from cryptocurrencies, and drug use among security clearance applicants.
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All of these factors make individuals potential targets for foreign recruiters, and Russia has used Telegram to recruit low-level criminals to do their bidding, encouraging them to sabotage aid to Ukraine, attack politicians and journalists, etc.

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After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a lot has changed in Estonia. Russian intelligence operations have become more aggressive and even desperate. But Estonia is adapting fast, exposing and countering these threats before they can cause real harm.

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To conclude, Estonia is one of the few countries that have been able to prepare for Russian hybrid attacks. The Kremlin will keep on provoking and attacking their Baltic neighbor, but so far Estonia has been able to resist and fight against all this extremely well.

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You can now pre-order the 2nd edition of "Vatnik Soup — The Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation"! This updated version, featuring pre-order extras, will be released on the 15th of February 2025.

Pre-order your copy here:

kleart.eu/webshop/p/vatn…

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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Jul 7
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an American national security policy professional and the current under secretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby (@ElbridgeColby). He’s best-known for fighting with cartoon dogs online and for halting military aid to Ukraine.

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Elbridge "Cheese" Colby earned his bachelor’s degree from Yale and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School. Before entering government, he worked at top think tanks and in the intelligence community, focusing on nuclear policy and strategic planning.

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Cheese quickly became a key voice for a “China First” strategy, arguing the US must prioritize military buildup in Asia over commitments in Europe or the Middle East. He sees (or saw, rather) Taiwan as the core test of US credibility.

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Read 22 tweets
Jul 6
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’m going to talk about… Vatnik Soup! As some of you know, we also have a website where you can find every soup ever published. The site also has other useful resources, making it the most comprehensive resource on Russian disinformation & vatniks.

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Unfortunately, Elon has flagged the website as malware, as he might not be very happy about the soups I wrote about him - so far, they have garnered over 60 million views on X/Twitter.

The “freedom of speech” spokesperson doesn’t seem too keen on free speech, after all.

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The heart & soul of the website is of course the soups page. There you can find all 360+ soups, which can be sorted chronologically, by popularity, etc. You can also search for soups by title or even in the soup text:

3/15

vatniksoup.com/en/soups/
Read 15 tweets
Jul 1
In today’s Wumao Soup, I’ll introduce how and where the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) online propaganda and influence operations work. Due to China’s massive population and advances in AI, CCP-aligned online content has become increasingly visible.

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Like Russia’s troll farms, China has its own troll army: the “50 Cent Party” or “Wumao” refers to state-linked online commentators who are reportedly paid ¥0.50 per post to steer discussions away from criticism and amplify CCP narratives on social media.

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Back in 2017, a research paper estimated that the Wumao produced almost 500 million fabricated comments annually to distract readers and shift topics. In that sense, Wumao operates very similarly to the Russian “Firehose of Falsehood” model:

3/20

Read 21 tweets
Jun 26
In today’s Vatnik Soup and the “Degenerate Russia” series, I’ll show you the brutal reality of Russian war crimes, in particular the horrific tortures and sexual abuses of children, women and men.

Buckle up, this one is not for the faint-hearted.

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For over a decade now and as part of their “firehose of falsehood” propaganda strategy, Russia has been spreading false narratives targeted at right-wing/conservative audiences, portraying russia as a bastion of Christian, traditional,family values.

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In the previous “degenerate Russia” series we discussed Russia’s insanely high divorce rates, rampant domestic violence, high murder rates, thriving neo-Nazi culture, corruption of the Orthodox Church, and their massive demographic problem:

3/24

Read 26 tweets
Jun 24
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll explore how Russia is working with Iran, and how the recent Israel–US strikes on Iran could affect the war in Ukraine. Iran has been one of Russia’s key allies in their genocidal war, but in reality the partnership is deeply one-sided.

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Historically, Russia/USSR has been involved in numerous wars in the Middle East, invading Afghanistan for nearly a decade and desperately trying to keep Syria’s authoritarian leader, al-Assad, in power before his eventual downfall.

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While initially supportive of Israel, the Soviet Union quickly pivoted to backing its enemies, fueling antisemitism, terrorism, and chaos in an already tense region. At times, this meant near-open war, like when Soviet Air Force MiG-21s were shot down by Israel over Egypt.

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Read 22 tweets
Jun 20
In today’s Vatnik Soup REBREW, I’ll re-introduce a Latvian politician and former MEP, Tatjana Ždanoka. She’s best-known for her history in the Communist Party of Latvia, for her pro-Russian politics in the country, and her connections to Russian intelligence.

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Based on Ždanoka’s speeches and social media posts, she has a deep hatred towards the people of Latvia. The reason for this can only be speculated, but part of it could be due to her paternal family being killed by the Latvian Auxiliary Police,…

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…a paramilitary force supported by the Nazis, during the early 1940s. Ždanoka became politically active in the late 80s. She was one of the leaders of Interfront, a political party that supported Latvia remaining part of the USSR.

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Read 23 tweets

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