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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
@PhillipsPOBrien
Feb 12 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Hi All, just released this piece on the Trump plan for Ukraine as outlined by Secdef Hegseth. Guess what, its the same bad plan for Ukraine that Trump people have outlined since last summer (arguably worse). Putin gets major concessions before the talks even start. Image
Ukraine is getting nothing concrete. No security guarantees from the US of any value, no NATO membership, even it seems, no promise of future US aid for Ukraine. Maybe those rose tinted spectacles need to be removed.
As the piece makes clear, the formal position of the US government is now that the sovereign and legally recognised territory of a democratic friend, is to be handed over to the control of a dictatorship.
Its now clear that Putin and Trump are aligning positions. Putin has stated he and Putin have spoken, have agreed to start talks, and are basically on the same page. Ukraine is about to get hammered by the USA. edition.cnn.com/2025/02/12/pol…
In September, @edwardstrngr and I wrote this piece in @ForeignAffairs that Europe needed to prepare for a security future without the USA. It wasnt listened to then, maybe it will be now. foreignaffairs.com/europe/plannin…

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Feb 11
Look, I know some people want to be optimistic about Trump and Ukraine. But to base it on the positions of Gen Kellogg's daughter is rather reaching. Trump's own son has been regularly mocking Ukraine and Zelensky and spreading Russian propaganda
Right after Trump was elected, Don Jr mocked Zelensky (and Ukraine as well) as being about to lose US aid--or his "allowance" kyivindependent.com/trump-jr-mocks…
In early January Trump Jr blamed Ukraine for making the Los Angeles fires worse. politico.eu/article/trump-…
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jan 17
Worthy of note that as Trump is preparing to take office, he seems to be spending much of his time desperately trying to protect a Chinese company that has been branded a major national security threat. Image
The tough on China stance was all hot air and BS. Saving Tik tok is the start. Trump is being more threatening to Europe than he is to China.
Indeed, one of Trump's latest tweets. This is how he is speaking about China. Image
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Dec 8, 2024
Hi all, just sent out my weekend update, free as always. Starts by looking at the battlefield and discusses the Ukraine is about to collapse narrative, which has recently taken off. It’s based on a one sided reaching of the evidence, and is pernicious. Image
Actually, the war is globally stretching Russian military forces to the breaking (as Syria shows). Basically Russia is throwing everything it has at Ukraine and is still making small advances. In all of 2024 Russia has taken about half of one percent of Ukraine.
Finally, take a sedative if you got excited by Trump’s suit and tie combination. Almost certainly it means nothing. His statement about Syria was probably much more revealing.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Nov 24, 2024
Hi Everyone, just sent out my weekend update (free as always). Just wanted to start with a word of thanks. Woke up today and discovered that my s-stak now has more than 50000 subscribers, which is rather astonishing. So thank you! Image
Subscribers come from all but 10 countries in the world (if anyone can get someone from Greenland to sign up). It has a truly international reach, with more than 1000 subscribers from India and approaching 500 from Nigeria for instance. Darkness of red is number of subscribers Image
As for the update. It starts with the big decision this week to allow Ukraine to make ranged strikes into Russia with US and EUropean systems--which while desperately needed, looks to be rather limited so far. On the other hand, Putin threats on the subject have once again seemed to lose some to loose their minds.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Nov 20, 2024
Which calls have I gotten wrong on the war @Dominic2306 ? You were the one who wanted to sacrifice Ukraine to Russia in 2022 as it had no chance. I will take you through my positions.
1) In January 2022 I wrote that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a catastrophe, would not be over soon and that Ukraine would fight and Russia was an overrated power. thecritic.co.uk/the-new-appeas…Image
Then, when Russia did invade, and it did go wrong, I said exactly that, that Russian maximalist war aims were a failure and by that standard they cannot win the war (and they are not winning the war by that standard). Btw, you were the one who was arguing Ukraine had no chance.
Read 18 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Nov 13, 2024
Good lord, an outright Putin apologist is named to be head of US national intelligence
Good lord 2, Matt Gaetz as Attorney General. The GOP seems hellbent on turning the US Government over to Russia.
Do any Republican Senators have a backbone? Any?
Read 5 tweets

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