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Feb 15 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Javier Milei just DESTROYED the memecoin market:

Hours ago, Argentinian President Milei launched a memecoin, $LIBRA, for "the growth of their economy."

Within 5 hours, over -$4.4 BILLION of market cap was erased.

Is this the biggest rug pull in history?

(a thread) Image
It all began with this post at 5:01 PM ET from Javier Milei.

As seen during President Trump's memecoin launch, the first hour was full of speculation:

Was this a hack or a real launch?

It turned out to be real as multiple other Argentinian politicians posted the news. Image
Right off the bat, something seemed off about this project.

The website says the purpose of this launch is "to boost the Argentine economy by funding small projects."

The icing on the cake?

The website literally links to a Google Form to "apply for funding." Strange. Image
Image
But it gets worse.

The website was created hours before launch, as shown below.

The domain was registered for a 1-year registration period.

There is no public owner information and there are multiple restricted domain statuses.

Was this project literally created overnight? Image
Within 3 hours of the launch, insiders in $LIBRA began cashing out.

According to Bubblemaps, $87.4 MILLION was cashed out within the first 3 hours.

Furthermore, 82% of $LIBRA was held in one cluster and no tokenomics were shared with the public.

But it gets even worse. Image
As Bubblemaps notes below, insiders were adding one-sided liquidity pools on Meteora with only $LIBRA.

They were removing USD and SOL and used these liquidity pools instead of selling on the market.

$LIBRA fell 90%+ as the $87.4M in sales absorbed all buy pressure at the top. Image
Within minutes of the launch, multiple large holders began liquidating MILLIONS of USD worth of $LIBRA.

This included gains of +$4 million or more as $LIBRA rose to $4.6 billion in market cap.

After the top was set at 5:40 PM ET, the coin fell in a literal straight-line. Image
In fact, these insiders controlled so much of the market that only ~27% of transactions were sales.

This means that LARGE sale transactions were filled by smaller buys, likely to retail traders.

For every seller, there were 2 buyers and over $1.1 BILLION of volume was traded. Image
Now, Javier Milei has posted that he was "not aware of the details of the project."

He says that after becoming aware of the details, he decided to stop spreading the word and delete the post.

$LIBRA just fell to a new low of $200 million in market cap, erasing $4.4 BILLION. Image
The launch of this coin took so much liquidity out of the market that even $TRUMP coin fell sharply.

We saw over $500 MILLION in market cap erased from $TRUMP after the launch.

More than 50,000 wallets became holders of $LIBRA within the first 2 hours of launch. Image
This entire event has completely destroyed the majority of liquidity in the memecoin market.

$6+ billion of market cap has been erased over the last 3 hours across the market.

Are memecoins officially dead?

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. Image
This is not the first and it won’t be the last mainstream memecoin launch to rug retail investors.

Early signs of these scams have become increasingly easy to spot.

Be sure to turn on @KobeissiLetter post notifications to stay ahead of the game.

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Jul 15
What is happening in Japan?

Treasury yields in Japan have silently surged to new RECORD highs, with the 30Y Yield hitting 3.20% today.

Japan's 30Y government bonds have LOST -45% of their value since 2019.

Is it too late for Japan to rescue its economy?

(a thread) Image
The collapse of Japan's bond market has been incredibly telling.

In fact, we are beginning to see some similarities in the US as deficit spending accelerates.

It almost seems like investors have lost confidence in the Japanese government's ability to pay down debt. Image
Over the last year, Japan’s 30Y bond yield has surged 100 basis points.

This created massive unrealized losses for financial institutions.

Unrealized losses on domestic bonds for 4 of Japan’s largest life insurers QUADRUPLED in 12 months, to a record $60 billion in Q1 2025. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jul 14
This is not a "normal."

We have reached a point where Bitcoin is moving in a literal STRAIGHT-LINE higher.

Rates are rising, the USD is down -11% in 6 months, and crypto is up +$1 TRILLION in 3 months.

What's happening? Bitcoin has entered "crisis mode."

(a thread) Image
Bitcoin has reached a point where it is quite literally making new all time highs multiple times a day.

Since the US House passed President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" on July 3rd, Bitcoin is up +$15,000.

If the surge in gold prices didn't alert you, Bitcoin should. Image
Does it get any more obvious than this?

Take a look at the YTD performance of Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index, $DXY.

There were two distinct points of divergence:

April 9th after the 90-day tariff pause and July 1st as the "Big Beautiful Bill" was passed.

It's beyond clear. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jul 10
Are you paying attention?

Bitcoin is now up +55% since its April 2025 low, hitting a RECORD $115,000.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar just had its WORST start to a year since 1973, falling nearly -11% in 6 months.

This is not a coincidence. Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Heading into April 2025, Bitcoin was moving in a straight-line lower on trade war fears.

On April 9th, tariffs were delayed for 90 days and Bitcoin bottomed.

On April 20th, the real rally began, without any major news, days after the delay.

So, what really happened here? Image
It's clear that the story for crypto has become much more than just being a decentralized currency.

Rather, it has become the hedge (along with gold) against the biggest crisis in the US:

Deficit spending.

Crypto and gold are telling a clear story: the crisis worsening.
Read 13 tweets
Jul 10
The crisis continues:

Since the debt ceiling was raised on July 3rd, US debt is now up $410 BILLION in 2 days.

This comes after the US Treasury ended "extraordinary measures," raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.

We are in the midst of the US' largest crisis.

(a thread) Image
After hitting the debt limit of $36.1 trillion in January 2025, the Treasury began “extraordinary measures” to conserve cash.

Then, last week, President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" was signed into law.

This raised the debt ceiling from $36.1 trillion to $41.1 trillion. Image
US debt rising by $410 billion in 2 days after the ceiling is raised is due to a technical process.

This includes refilling the Treasury General Account (TGA), settling delayed obligations, and reversing deferrals.

These were all suspended due to "extraordinary measures."
Read 15 tweets
Jul 9
It's official:

President Trump is now calling for the first 300+ basis point interest rate cut in US history.

This would be 3 TIMES larger than the 100 bps cut on March 15th, 2020, the largest in history.

So, what happens if the Fed does this? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
First, President Trump mentions that higher rates are costing the US more money on interest expense.

At a high level, this is true.

Annual interest expense on US debt has reached $1.2 TRILLION over the last 12 months.

The US is now paying $3.3 BILLION in interest per day. Image
Now, let's examine the benefits.

President Trump claims a 300 bps rate cut would save $360B/point per year, or $1.08T/year.

It seems Trump computed the $360B/year figure from 1% x $36 trillion in US debt.

However, only publicly held debt matters, which stands at ~$29B. Image
Read 15 tweets
Jun 23
Iran's response has begun:

After US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran just attacked US military bases in Qatar and Iraq.

Meanwhile, oil prices just CRASHED over -6% on the news.

Why? Markets are saying EVERYTHING you need to know. Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Iranian media just announced that Iran has launched operation "Annunciation of Victory."

Iran's Armed Forces said they will not leave any attack on Iran unanswered.

This was Iran's first response to the US since the 3 strikes conducted by the US Airforce this weekend. Image
The initial reaction by markets was a selloff in stocks and a jump in oil prices.

The most common thought process here is than an Iranian response is escalatory.

But, this did NOT last long.

In fact, the market is painting the EXACT OPPOSITE situation right now.
Read 12 tweets

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