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Feb 15 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Javier Milei just DESTROYED the memecoin market:

Hours ago, Argentinian President Milei launched a memecoin, $LIBRA, for "the growth of their economy."

Within 5 hours, over -$4.4 BILLION of market cap was erased.

Is this the biggest rug pull in history?

(a thread) Image
It all began with this post at 5:01 PM ET from Javier Milei.

As seen during President Trump's memecoin launch, the first hour was full of speculation:

Was this a hack or a real launch?

It turned out to be real as multiple other Argentinian politicians posted the news. Image
Right off the bat, something seemed off about this project.

The website says the purpose of this launch is "to boost the Argentine economy by funding small projects."

The icing on the cake?

The website literally links to a Google Form to "apply for funding." Strange. Image
Image
But it gets worse.

The website was created hours before launch, as shown below.

The domain was registered for a 1-year registration period.

There is no public owner information and there are multiple restricted domain statuses.

Was this project literally created overnight? Image
Within 3 hours of the launch, insiders in $LIBRA began cashing out.

According to Bubblemaps, $87.4 MILLION was cashed out within the first 3 hours.

Furthermore, 82% of $LIBRA was held in one cluster and no tokenomics were shared with the public.

But it gets even worse. Image
As Bubblemaps notes below, insiders were adding one-sided liquidity pools on Meteora with only $LIBRA.

They were removing USD and SOL and used these liquidity pools instead of selling on the market.

$LIBRA fell 90%+ as the $87.4M in sales absorbed all buy pressure at the top. Image
Within minutes of the launch, multiple large holders began liquidating MILLIONS of USD worth of $LIBRA.

This included gains of +$4 million or more as $LIBRA rose to $4.6 billion in market cap.

After the top was set at 5:40 PM ET, the coin fell in a literal straight-line. Image
In fact, these insiders controlled so much of the market that only ~27% of transactions were sales.

This means that LARGE sale transactions were filled by smaller buys, likely to retail traders.

For every seller, there were 2 buyers and over $1.1 BILLION of volume was traded. Image
Now, Javier Milei has posted that he was "not aware of the details of the project."

He says that after becoming aware of the details, he decided to stop spreading the word and delete the post.

$LIBRA just fell to a new low of $200 million in market cap, erasing $4.4 BILLION. Image
The launch of this coin took so much liquidity out of the market that even $TRUMP coin fell sharply.

We saw over $500 MILLION in market cap erased from $TRUMP after the launch.

More than 50,000 wallets became holders of $LIBRA within the first 2 hours of launch. Image
This entire event has completely destroyed the majority of liquidity in the memecoin market.

$6+ billion of market cap has been erased over the last 3 hours across the market.

Are memecoins officially dead?

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. Image
This is not the first and it won’t be the last mainstream memecoin launch to rug retail investors.

Early signs of these scams have become increasingly easy to spot.

Be sure to turn on @KobeissiLetter post notifications to stay ahead of the game.

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More from @KobeissiLetter

May 5
Gold won't stop.

Gold is surging again, now trading above $3,300/oz, even as the S&P 500 is up +17% from its April 7th low.

Since 2020, the gold ETF, $GLD, has now OUTPERFORMED the S&P 500 by 35 percentage points.

Are you still watching gold?

(a thread) Image
Heading into 2025, $GLD was underperforming the S&P 500 since 2020 by ~10%.

However, as uncertainty has risen, $GLD is now up +109% since 2020 compared to +74% in the S&P 500.

But, why are gold prices surging even as the market recovers?

Uncertainty remains the answer. Image
The equity market's rebound has been a product of SENTIMENT.

The Fear & Greed index is up ~54 points since its April 2025 low.

However, we have not seen a material reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty.

Equity and gold markets are telling two different near-term stories. Image
Read 12 tweets
May 3
This is insane:

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just announced they now hold a record $348 BILLION in cash.

Since 2022, Buffett's cash balance is up $239 BILLION and he has net SOLD stocks for 10-straight quarters.

What does Warren Buffett see here?

(a thread) Image
Below is Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet:

They now hold $305.5 BILLION of US Treasury Bills and $36.9 billion of cash in their insurance and other business.

In their Railroad, Utilities and Energy business, they hold another ~$5.3 billion of cash.

This is unprecedented. Image
To put this in perspective, the US Federal Reserve currently holds $195.3 billion in US Treasury Bills.

This means that Berkshire Hathaway now holds ~$110.2 billion MORE of T-bills than the Fed.

Berkshire Hathaway's T-bill balance is ~56% HIGHER than the Fed itself. Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 30
The Fed's worst nightmare just got worse:

New data showed that US GDP CONTRATCTED by -0.3% in Q1 2025, while +0.3% growth was expected.

To make things worse, the GDP Price Index surged to +3.7%, its highest since August 2023.

What does Powell do now?

(a thread) Image
Annualized US GDP growth came in at -0.3% this morning, below expectations of +0.3%.

This marks the first negative reading since Q2 2022.

Just 4 months ago, GDP was expected to grow by over 3% in Q1 2025.

We have seen a MASSIVE shift in US economic output. Image
Treasury Yields are surging, with the 10Y Note Yield up almost 10 bps from its pre-data release low.

Why are rates rising in an economy that is shrinking?

The market knows that stagflation has arrived.

The Fed is facing the lose-lose situation they thought would never arrive. Image
Read 13 tweets
Apr 21
Where are the trade deals?

The S&P 500 has now erased -$2.5 TRILLION since the April 9th high after the 90-day tariff "pause."

While markets await trade deals, Japan just said they "won't just keep conceding" in US tariff talks.

Here's what's happening.

(a thread) Image
On April 16th, Bloomberg published the below article claiming that trade negotiations with Japan are underway.

Trump Administration officials claimed trade deals were being discussed with 50+ countries.

Markets rallied sharply on this news over the last 5-10 days. Image
Below is a timeline of recent events.

We are now on the 12th day of the 90-day tariff "pause" and no trade deals have been announced.

As seen below, the market has already priced-in at least partial trade deals.

However, it's been nearly 2 weeks without a single deal. Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 16
What just happened?

After rising +2,400 points since its April 7th low, the Nasdaq is now down nearly -900 points since Monday's high.

Today, Fed Chair Powell made it clear that the "Fed put" is NOT saving the market any time soon.

Here's what happened.

(a thread) Image
First, selling pressure began mounting yesterday at around 6 PM ET.

Nvidia, $NVDA, said the US banned them from selling H20 chips to China "for the indefinite future."

Nvidia says this will come with a $5.5 billion charge to Q1 earnings.

$NVDA fell over -10% intraday today. Image
Then, the selloff accelerated following the below WSJ report.

US officials are planning to use negotiations with 70+ nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries..

The US is reportedly attempting to "isolate" China.

Yet another escalation. Image
Read 13 tweets
Apr 16
Gold is trading like we are in a depression:

Over the last 20 years, gold is now OUTPERFORMING stocks, up +620% compared to a +580% gain in the S&P 500.

Over the last 9 months, gold has officially surged by over +$1,000/oz.

What is gold telling us?

(a thread) Image
Beginning in 2020, stocks widened their performance gap against gold.

However, as equities have entered a bear market, capital has rushed into gold.

As we have been writing for the last 12+ months, gold is the ONLY global safe haven asset now.

US bonds are not as desired. Image
As shown below, gold has CRUSHED bond returns over the last 4-5 years.

Since March 2020, gold is now up +114% while a popular bond-tracking ETF, $TLT, is down -45%.

This shift in sentiment has been gold's most bullish development in recent history.

So, why did it happen? Image
Read 13 tweets

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