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Feb 15 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Javier Milei just DESTROYED the memecoin market:

Hours ago, Argentinian President Milei launched a memecoin, $LIBRA, for "the growth of their economy."

Within 5 hours, over -$4.4 BILLION of market cap was erased.

Is this the biggest rug pull in history?

(a thread) Image
It all began with this post at 5:01 PM ET from Javier Milei.

As seen during President Trump's memecoin launch, the first hour was full of speculation:

Was this a hack or a real launch?

It turned out to be real as multiple other Argentinian politicians posted the news. Image
Right off the bat, something seemed off about this project.

The website says the purpose of this launch is "to boost the Argentine economy by funding small projects."

The icing on the cake?

The website literally links to a Google Form to "apply for funding." Strange. Image
Image
But it gets worse.

The website was created hours before launch, as shown below.

The domain was registered for a 1-year registration period.

There is no public owner information and there are multiple restricted domain statuses.

Was this project literally created overnight? Image
Within 3 hours of the launch, insiders in $LIBRA began cashing out.

According to Bubblemaps, $87.4 MILLION was cashed out within the first 3 hours.

Furthermore, 82% of $LIBRA was held in one cluster and no tokenomics were shared with the public.

But it gets even worse. Image
As Bubblemaps notes below, insiders were adding one-sided liquidity pools on Meteora with only $LIBRA.

They were removing USD and SOL and used these liquidity pools instead of selling on the market.

$LIBRA fell 90%+ as the $87.4M in sales absorbed all buy pressure at the top. Image
Within minutes of the launch, multiple large holders began liquidating MILLIONS of USD worth of $LIBRA.

This included gains of +$4 million or more as $LIBRA rose to $4.6 billion in market cap.

After the top was set at 5:40 PM ET, the coin fell in a literal straight-line. Image
In fact, these insiders controlled so much of the market that only ~27% of transactions were sales.

This means that LARGE sale transactions were filled by smaller buys, likely to retail traders.

For every seller, there were 2 buyers and over $1.1 BILLION of volume was traded. Image
Now, Javier Milei has posted that he was "not aware of the details of the project."

He says that after becoming aware of the details, he decided to stop spreading the word and delete the post.

$LIBRA just fell to a new low of $200 million in market cap, erasing $4.4 BILLION. Image
The launch of this coin took so much liquidity out of the market that even $TRUMP coin fell sharply.

We saw over $500 MILLION in market cap erased from $TRUMP after the launch.

More than 50,000 wallets became holders of $LIBRA within the first 2 hours of launch. Image
This entire event has completely destroyed the majority of liquidity in the memecoin market.

$6+ billion of market cap has been erased over the last 3 hours across the market.

Are memecoins officially dead?

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. Image
This is not the first and it won’t be the last mainstream memecoin launch to rug retail investors.

Early signs of these scams have become increasingly easy to spot.

Be sure to turn on @KobeissiLetter post notifications to stay ahead of the game.

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More from @KobeissiLetter

May 25
What is happening in Japan?

In 45 days, Japan's 30Y Government Bond Yield rose a MASSIVE +100 basis points, to a record 3.20%.

Over $500 BILLION worth of "safe" 40Y Japanese Government Bonds have lost 20%+ in 6 weeks.

Is Japan's bond market imploding?

(a thread) Image
What's happening in Japan is not "normal."

Japan's 40Y government bond that was yielding ~1.3% two years ago is now yielding 3.5%.

As yields continue to surge, inflation has begun to rebound and Japan's economy is decline.

It appears Japan is entering a recession. Image
The surge all began when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a major policy shift.

After years after BUYING bonds, the BOJ stopped doing so.

This resulted in much more bond supply hitting the market, which drove yields higher.

And, the BOJ has a colossal balance sheet still. Image
Read 15 tweets
May 23
The trade war is back:

After a brief pause, Trump just threatened 50% tariffs on the EU beginning June 1st and 25% tariffs on Apple.

In 5 days, the S&P 500 has erased -$1.5 trillion of market cap.

What's next? Here's why you NEED to watch the bond market.

(a thread) Image
First, at 7:19 AM ET today, President Trump made the below post.

As Apple, $AAPL, has moved iPhone production to India, Trump said this was not acceptable.

Trump says iPhones must be made in the USA or face tariffs of at least 25%.

The S&P 500 to 5820 on this news. Image
24 minutes later, President Trump made the below post.

He said he is "recommended a straight 50% tariff on the EU, staring June 1st."

This was the first escalation since the 90-day tariff pause and it sent S&P 500 futures down to 5750.

But, why now? Image
Read 13 tweets
May 21
What just happened?

At 1:00 PM ET, the S&P 500 fell nearly -80 points in 30 minutes without any major "news."

What actually happened was a weak 20Y Bond Auction which sent US Treasury Yields soaring.

Investors MUST watch yields here. Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
The US frequently conducts bond auctions, where investors can buy US Treasuries (debt).

Today, the US conducted a $16B auction of 20Y Bonds.

Typically, these auctions happen with minimal impact on markets.

However, today was different which sent yields soaring. Image
Today was different because demand for the bond auction was weak.

In other words, investors wanted to buy these bonds for LESS than initially expected.

The high yield came in at 5.047%, well above expectations of 5.035%.

When bond prices fall, yields rise, as we just saw. Image
Read 14 tweets
May 17
It's official:

For the first time in history, Moody's has downgraded the United States' credit rating.

Moody's cites concerns over soaring US debt levels with interest on US debt set to hit 30% of REVENUE by 2035.

What does it all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
This isn't the first time the US has seen a credit rating downgrade.

In 2011, S&P downgraded the US' credit rating from AAA to AA+.

As seen below, the downgrade came with an ~8% drop in the S&P 500 in 2 months.

The 10Y Yield fell as much as ~35% within the first 2 months. Image
In 2023, Fitch downgraded the US' long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+.

They cited concerns over rising US debt levels, unaddressed fiscal challenges, and Fed rate hikes.

This seemed to pave the path for the historic Moody's downgrade that we just received. Image
Read 13 tweets
May 5
Gold won't stop.

Gold is surging again, now trading above $3,300/oz, even as the S&P 500 is up +17% from its April 7th low.

Since 2020, the gold ETF, $GLD, has now OUTPERFORMED the S&P 500 by 35 percentage points.

Are you still watching gold?

(a thread) Image
Heading into 2025, $GLD was underperforming the S&P 500 since 2020 by ~10%.

However, as uncertainty has risen, $GLD is now up +109% since 2020 compared to +74% in the S&P 500.

But, why are gold prices surging even as the market recovers?

Uncertainty remains the answer. Image
The equity market's rebound has been a product of SENTIMENT.

The Fear & Greed index is up ~54 points since its April 2025 low.

However, we have not seen a material reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty.

Equity and gold markets are telling two different near-term stories. Image
Read 12 tweets
May 3
This is insane:

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just announced they now hold a record $348 BILLION in cash.

Since 2022, Buffett's cash balance is up $239 BILLION and he has net SOLD stocks for 10-straight quarters.

What does Warren Buffett see here?

(a thread) Image
Below is Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet:

They now hold $305.5 BILLION of US Treasury Bills and $36.9 billion of cash in their insurance and other business.

In their Railroad, Utilities and Energy business, they hold another ~$5.3 billion of cash.

This is unprecedented. Image
To put this in perspective, the US Federal Reserve currently holds $195.3 billion in US Treasury Bills.

This means that Berkshire Hathaway now holds ~$110.2 billion MORE of T-bills than the Fed.

Berkshire Hathaway's T-bill balance is ~56% HIGHER than the Fed itself. Image
Read 12 tweets

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