Thread by @StuartDowell_

Poland wants a long-term commitment from the United States. Washington prefers to keep things casual. On Valentine’s Day, Pete Hegseth visited Warsaw, praised Poland’s loyalty, and then reminded it that nothing lasts forever. 🧵1/

Poland has invested billions in its military, bought American weapons, hosted US troops, and exceeded NATO spending targets. It has done everything possible to prove its worth. But when asked whether US forces would stay permanently, Hegseth dodged the question. 2/

The US currently has around 10,000 troops in Poland. A significant presence, but rotational, not permanent. Poland pays for the bases, builds the infrastructure, and does the heavy lifting. But the US keeps its exit options open. 3/

This is a familiar pattern. Poland wantns to believe that alliances work on rules and fairness. That loyalty and commitment will bring security. But history suggests otherwise. It played by the rules in 1791, modernised its government, and was partitioned anyway. 4/

In 1939, Poland trusted British and French security guarantees. When Germany invaded, those guarantees meant nothing. In 1945, after fighting alongside the Allies, Poland expected a fair postwar settlement. Instead, Churchill and Roosevelt handed it over to Stalin. 5/

Poland’s mistake has always been believing that doing everything right will be enough. But in international politics, rules are meaningless if they aren’t backed by power. Loyalty doesn’t matter. Leverage does. 6/

Fort Trump was supposed to change that. In 2018, Poland offered $2 billion to fund a permanent US military base. Trump liked the idea, but his administration never committed. Instead, Poland got a rotational presence, with no guarantees. 7/

Now, Trump is back and Poland is trying again. Hegseth’s visit hinted at it and Duda wants to revive the Fort Trump idea. But Washington has even less interest in long-term commitments now. The US is focused on China, not Poland. 8/

Hegseth made it clear that US priorities are shifting. Europe must spend more on defence. NATO should prepare for a future where US support is conditional. 9/

Poland now has a choice. Keep chasing US commitment, or accept that Washington’s support comes with an expiration date. The real question is whether Poland wants to keep proving itself or start being the one who decides whether to break rules or not. 10/