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Feb 15 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
This is absolutely insane:

Since DOGE began discussing mass layoffs, the median home price in Washington DC has FALLEN by -$139,000.

In 30 days, nearly 4,000 homes have been listed for sale in and around Washington DC.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Here's a chart showing median home price in the Washington, DC area.

In November 2024, the median home in Washington, DC was worth ~$699,000, according to Redfin.

Today, the median home is worth $560,000, marking a -20% drop in ~3 months.

Mass selling is an understatement. Image
There are now nearly 8,000 homes for sale in the Washington, DC metro area.

Nearly HALF of these homes have been listed for sale over the last 30 days.

Since November 2024, nearly 5,000 homes have been listed for sale, well above average.

So, what exactly is happening here? Image
Year-over-year, home listings in the Washington DC metro area are up ~23%.

Parts of Virginia are seeing 60%-70%+ jumps in year-over-year listings.

Keep in mind, this is during the winter months in a housing market that has been historically LOW on supply.

Truly insane. Image
Listings accelerated after DOGE's federal employee buyout offer was announced.

The offer pays employees through September 2025 if they quit, with 5%-10% of employees expected agree.

As of this week, 65,000 federal employees have accepted the buyout offer, per WSJ. Image
Today, Fox News reported that 3,600 probationary Health and Human Services employees were laid off by DOGE.

This is expected to save $600 MILLION in taxpayer dollars annually.

The 65,000 DOGE cuts so far are now saving an estimated ~$38 billion in annual taxpayer dollars. Image
On day 8 of the formation of @DOGE, the below announcement was made.

DOGE is reportedly saving the US Government $1 billion PER DAY.

This means DOGE could reduce US deficit spending by 20% in YEAR 1.

More layoffs are coming as workforce reduction has been a primary DOGE goal. Image
Here's where it gets even more interesting:

There has been a SURGE in new listings in Washington, DC with a listing price of $1,000,000+.

There are now 525 listings of $1+ million and 44 listings worth $5+ million.

This suggests high-profile job exits are rising. Image
Just wait until we see the effects on commercial real estate in Washington, DC.

DOGE announced plans to eliminate up to TWO-THIRDS of US government office buildings, per WSJ.

Not a single major US government agency is currently occupying even 50% of their office space. Image
DOGE has specifically noted that Washington, DC federal government buildings are particularly empty.

On average, they are just 12% occupied.

The Department of Agriculture saw just ~456 of 7,400 employees use their office.

The DC real estate market is just getting started. Image
If you zoom out further, there are ~15 THOUSAND homes for sale around Washington, DC.

In fact, there are so many homes for sale in the downtown area that Zillow is grouping 280 homes together.

This is an unprecedented level of selling in a generally "strong" housing market. Image
Are layoffs and rising inventory in DC a coincidence?

Time will tell. But, we see more layoffs ahead as DOGE looks to cut $4 billion/day.

With US debt up $13 TRILLION since 2020, spending cuts are needed.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. Image
DOGE's goal of rapidly reducing the $1.8 trillion US deficit will impact MULTIPLE markets.

The 10-year note yield has fallen ~40 bps from its high and gold is nearing $3000, even as inflation rebounded.

Subscribe below to see how we are trading it:

thekobeissiletter.com/subscribeImage
With mortgage demand at 30-year lows, stocks at all time highs, and DOGE disrupting government spending, tons of change is coming.

As investors, we must evolve with this change.

Be sure to turn on @Kobeissiletter post notifications to receive our real-time analysis.

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Oct 5
What is happening?

The S&P 500 is up +40% in 6 months, Gold is nearing $4,000/oz, and Bitcoin hit a record $2.5 TRILLION market cap.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar is set for its WORST year since 1973.

Are markets THAT strong or is the US Dollar just crashing?

(a thread) Image
Yesterday, on a casual Saturday night, Bitcoin surged to $125,000, a new all time high.

This makes Bitcoin worth a record $2.5 trillion.

Meanwhile, gold has hit 40 record highs in 2025 and is now worth a whopping $26.3 TRILLION.

That's more than 10 TIMES the value of Bitcoin. Image
Meanwhile, take a look at Silver, worth $2.7 TRILLION and up over +60% YTD.

Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin are now all in the top 10 largest assets in the world.

These are all typically viewed as safe haven assets which rise when stocks fall.

But, take a look at equity markets. Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 30
The US government shutdown:

For the first time since 2018, the US is about to enter a government shutdown and investors are bracing for it.

This would furlough 750,000 workers PER DAY, costing ~$400M in daily compensation.

What does it all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
The last time we entered a government shutdown was in December 2018, in Trump's 1st term.

The shutdown lasted 35 days, making it the longest government shutdown in US history.

The average length of a shutdown is 8 days and its implications spread further when it lasts longer. Image
During a shutdown, many Federal functions are suspended.

Services that the government deems “essential,” such as those related to law enforcement, continue.

If an agreement is not reached by 12:01 AM ET on October 1st, the US government will officially enter a shutdown. Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 29
This is insane:

As the record run in gold accelerates, US gold reserves just exceeded $1 TRILLION for the first time in history.

The US now holds ~2.4 TIMES more gold than Germany, the 2nd-largest holder in the world.

What is gold telling us? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Today's move puts gold up +44% year-to-date.

This means gold is now up 3.5 TIMES more than the S&P 500 during one of its strongest bull runs ever.

Historically, gold falls when stocks rise as it's a "safe haven" asset.

However, the EXACT opposite situation is happening now. Image
In fact, gold is now on track to post its best year since 1979, when inflation in the US was above 11%.

Not even the 2020 Pandemic, 2008 Financial Crisis, or 2000 Dot-Com bubble saw gold post a 40%+ annual gain.

The move puts US gold holdings at ~$1.1 TRILLION. Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 25
An affordability nightmare:

It would take a -38% drop in home prices OR a +60% JUMP in household income JUST for affordability to go back to 2019 levels.

You must now make ~$113,000/year to afford the MEDIAN home in the US.

Will housing ever be affordable again?

(a thread) Image
According to Fannie Mae calculations, affordability is at record lows for the US housing market.

Just for housing affordability to return to 2019 levels, mortgage rates would need to fall ~415 basis points.

The combination of inflation and higher rates has been catastrophic. Image
A big issue is that wage growth has significantly underperformed productivity.

Between 1948 and 2014, productivity rose ~240% while wages rose ~109%.

On top of this, home prices have risen at a much faster pace than wage growth over the last 5-10 years.

All as rates spiked. Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 23
Crypto adoption is about to SURGE:

A new Bank of America survey shows 75% of investors have ZERO exposure to crypto.

Now, US lawmakers are requesting the SEC implements President Trump's Executive Order allowing 401(K)s to BUY crypto.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Below is a letter that was sent by lawmakers to the SEC this week.

It asks the SEC to begin opening up 401(K) plans to crypto "swiftly."

This opens ~$10 TRILLION worth of capital, which is 2.5 TIMES the current market cap of crypto. Image
Image
On August 7th, Trump signed the below Executive Order.

This called for the "democratization of access to alternative assets," also known as crypto.

Prior to this, 401(K)s could only buy crypto ETFs and some stocks.

Now, Congress is calling for the SEC to implement the Order. Image
Read 11 tweets
Sep 22
What is happening in Argentina?

In 24 hours, Argentina's stock market COLLAPSED -10%, with the Argentine Peso now down -99% in 10 years.

Today, the Trump Administration offered a "lifeline" to Argentina, sending stocks surging +8%.

Can Argentina be saved?

(a thread) Image
Just 2 hours ago, US Treasury Secretary Bessent made this post:

He said "all options for stabilization are on the table" for Argentina.

This may include swap lines, direct currency purchases, and purchases of USD denominated government debt.

But, how did they end up here? Image
Immediately after Javier Milei became Argentina's President, inflation hit 300%+.

In late-2023, inflation in Argentina was above 25% PER MONTH.

At one point, a cup of coffee cost more by the time you finished drinking it.

It's now down to ~2% per month or ~34% YoY. Image
Read 13 tweets

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