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Feb 15 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
This is absolutely insane:

Since DOGE began discussing mass layoffs, the median home price in Washington DC has FALLEN by -$139,000.

In 30 days, nearly 4,000 homes have been listed for sale in and around Washington DC.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Here's a chart showing median home price in the Washington, DC area.

In November 2024, the median home in Washington, DC was worth ~$699,000, according to Redfin.

Today, the median home is worth $560,000, marking a -20% drop in ~3 months.

Mass selling is an understatement. Image
There are now nearly 8,000 homes for sale in the Washington, DC metro area.

Nearly HALF of these homes have been listed for sale over the last 30 days.

Since November 2024, nearly 5,000 homes have been listed for sale, well above average.

So, what exactly is happening here? Image
Year-over-year, home listings in the Washington DC metro area are up ~23%.

Parts of Virginia are seeing 60%-70%+ jumps in year-over-year listings.

Keep in mind, this is during the winter months in a housing market that has been historically LOW on supply.

Truly insane. Image
Listings accelerated after DOGE's federal employee buyout offer was announced.

The offer pays employees through September 2025 if they quit, with 5%-10% of employees expected agree.

As of this week, 65,000 federal employees have accepted the buyout offer, per WSJ. Image
Today, Fox News reported that 3,600 probationary Health and Human Services employees were laid off by DOGE.

This is expected to save $600 MILLION in taxpayer dollars annually.

The 65,000 DOGE cuts so far are now saving an estimated ~$38 billion in annual taxpayer dollars. Image
On day 8 of the formation of @DOGE, the below announcement was made.

DOGE is reportedly saving the US Government $1 billion PER DAY.

This means DOGE could reduce US deficit spending by 20% in YEAR 1.

More layoffs are coming as workforce reduction has been a primary DOGE goal. Image
Here's where it gets even more interesting:

There has been a SURGE in new listings in Washington, DC with a listing price of $1,000,000+.

There are now 525 listings of $1+ million and 44 listings worth $5+ million.

This suggests high-profile job exits are rising. Image
Just wait until we see the effects on commercial real estate in Washington, DC.

DOGE announced plans to eliminate up to TWO-THIRDS of US government office buildings, per WSJ.

Not a single major US government agency is currently occupying even 50% of their office space. Image
DOGE has specifically noted that Washington, DC federal government buildings are particularly empty.

On average, they are just 12% occupied.

The Department of Agriculture saw just ~456 of 7,400 employees use their office.

The DC real estate market is just getting started. Image
If you zoom out further, there are ~15 THOUSAND homes for sale around Washington, DC.

In fact, there are so many homes for sale in the downtown area that Zillow is grouping 280 homes together.

This is an unprecedented level of selling in a generally "strong" housing market. Image
Are layoffs and rising inventory in DC a coincidence?

Time will tell. But, we see more layoffs ahead as DOGE looks to cut $4 billion/day.

With US debt up $13 TRILLION since 2020, spending cuts are needed.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. Image
DOGE's goal of rapidly reducing the $1.8 trillion US deficit will impact MULTIPLE markets.

The 10-year note yield has fallen ~40 bps from its high and gold is nearing $3000, even as inflation rebounded.

Subscribe below to see how we are trading it:

thekobeissiletter.com/subscribeImage
With mortgage demand at 30-year lows, stocks at all time highs, and DOGE disrupting government spending, tons of change is coming.

As investors, we must evolve with this change.

Be sure to turn on @Kobeissiletter post notifications to receive our real-time analysis.

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Oct 22
We just witnessed history:

Yesterday, gold prices fell -5.7%, marking the largest 1-day drop since April 2013.

This is a ~4.5 sigma move.

In other words, such a large move only happens in 1 out of 240,000 days in a "normal" world.

What does it mean? Let us explain. Image
Statistically speaking, gold's move was a near 5-sigma event.

However, in reality, gold has seen a move of this magnitude only 34 times since 1971.

In other words, this occurs in 34 of 13,088 trading days or 0.26% of the time, per @BurggrabenH.

This is EXTREMELY rare. Image
Silver prices were hit even harder.

Silver fell as much as -9% in a single-day and posted its largest daily decline since the 2020 crash.

Gold and silver neared -$3 trillion in lost market cap in just over 24 hours of trade.

But, we cannot ignore what happened BEFORE this. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 17
Margin debt is SKYROCKETING:

In September 2025, US investors took on another +$67 billion in margin debt bringing the total to a record $1.13 TRILLION.

Meanwhile, 5 TIMES levered ETFs have just been proposed to the SEC.

What does it all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Investor leverage has nearly DOUBLED over the last 2 years.

This marks a similar pace to the rise seen following the 2020 pandemic.

As a % of GDP, margin debt now sits just below the 2021 peak.

Needless to say, risk appetite is arguably at its strongest level ever. Image
Everyone wants a piece of the AI Revolution.

US households’ allocation to equities has hit a record 52%.

This now surpasses the 2000 peak of 48% by 4 percentage points.

The percentage is also TWICE as high as at the 2008 low.

Americans are piling into the stock market. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 13
Absolute insanity:

Gold has now officially added +$10 TRILLION of market cap in 12 months, up a massive +55%.

Over the last 72 hours, gold has rallied on EVERY headline, even as the S&P 500 erased -$2.5 trillion in 5 hours.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Gold has reached a point where the technicals seem to be irrelevant.

Gold's MONTHLY RSI just hit 91.5, marking its most "overbought" level since 1980.

Yet, gold prices are up another +$110/oz on the day today.

Not even 2001, 2008, or 2020 saw a reading of 90+! Image
For a while, it was all about the declining US Dollar.

But, take a look at this.

Even as the US Dollar has rebounded nearly +2% since October 4th, gold prices are up over +5% over the same period.

Gold is so strong that it's defying its historical relationship with the USD. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 11
It's official:

Crypto just saw its LARGEST liquidation event in history with 1.6 MILLION traders liquidated.

Over $19 BILLION worth of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, 9 TIMES the previous record.

Why did this happen? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
To put this into perspective:

The liquidation event we saw over the last 24 hours was ~$17 BILLION larger than the February 2025 crash.

It was more than 19 TIMES larger than the March 2020 crash and collapse of FTX.

Never in history have we seen anything even close to this. Image
Amid the liquidation, Bitcoin recorded a $20,000 DAILY candlestick.

This marks a $380 BILLION swing in Bitcoin's market cap alone, in a single-day.

That's more than the market cap of all but 25 public companies in the world.

Once again, this has never happened in history. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 10
What just happened?

At 10:57 AM ET, President Trump canceled his meeting with China and said "massive" tariff increases are coming.

40 minutes later, the S&P 500 erased -$1.2 TRILLION of market cap.

Is this dip a BUYING opportunity? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Here is the statement that President Trump posted today.

He accused China of "lying" and imposing export controls on rare earth metals.

Trump cancelled his meeting in 2 weeks with China's President Xi and said "massive" tariff increases are coming.

So, what does it all mean? Image
Rare earths have been very important for Trump.

Between a Ukraine deal and the US-China trade war, Trump has prioritized rare earths.

These metals are CRUCIAL for the production of weapons, chips, AI, and strategic leverage.

The US gets ~70% of its rare earths from China. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 9
This is BEYOND insane:

AI compute demand is now growing at over 2 TIMES the rate of Moore’s Law, creating a massive shortage.

Just to meet current demand, $500 billion must be invested in data centers PER YEAR until 2030.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
For decades, Moore’s Law was the gold standard measure of technological progress.

That is: the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every 2 years.

AI has BROKEN this law.

AI’s compute demand has grown at DOUBLE the rate of Moore's Law over the last 10 years. Image
Compute is quickly becoming the world's most valuable commodity.

By 2028, global data center spend will hit $900 BILLION.

AI servers are growing at a +41% CAGR and the market overall is growing at a +23% CAGR.

This is UNPRECEDENTED growth for the industry. Image
Read 12 tweets

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