Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 Profile picture
Feb 15 18 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Once again I am leaving the Munich Security Conference in a low mood. Amongst all the noise, the US signalled their plans for Europe, so things are becoming clearer. But things are clearly not good.
This is what we now know, and what we now have to do about it:🧵1/17
Ukraine can no longer rely on US assistance. The US President wants a deal, and he wants it fast. Fast deals cost more for the buyer, but the US is not willing to foot the bill. So, ultimately, Ukraine will have to pay the price.🧵2/17
The US is no longer happy to be the main guarantor of security in Europe. There are talks of a partial withdrawal of troops, and a clear shift of priorities to other continents.🧵3/17
The current US administration does not see the EU as it once did—culturally it sees itself aligned with the movements within Europe that are interested in destruction. And this raises the very concerning question—what now are the US interests in Europe?🧵4/17
This is all happening at a very inconvenient time. So we have to think very seriously about how it might play out. Here is how I think things could go from here:🧵5/17
There is a strong possibility that the meeting between Putin and Trump will result in agreement. Putin is in the position to ask for it all. He might demand an election, the occupied territories, and Ukrainian neutrality. All these ideas have been teased.🧵6/17
If Trump agrees, which he might well do, Putin will declare a complete victory. This is what he wanted to achieve and he got it, he will say. Let’s not forget that the threat of additional sanctions was mentioned only if Putin does not agree to negotiate. Oh but he will.🧵7/17
President Trump will dump this dead cat deal at Europe's door and say take it or leave it. Then it's up to Europe to decide whether or not to stick up for Ukraine and support rejection of the deal.🧵8/17
People who say that Europe must be at the table should remember that to be invited, you have to matter. If Europe commits to money, troops and a European path for Ukraine, we will make our own table and Ukraine, Putin, and Trump can be invited. But time is running out.🧵9/17
If Europe is unable to stand up, Ukraine will be forced to rely on itself and a smaller group of allies that continue to give support. Threats to European security will grow immensely. Putin will get braver, meaning more war in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and beyond.🧵10/17
Europe is technically fully able to adapt and rise to this challenge, but the question remains one of political will, or the lack of it. Indecision will lead in only one direction, and it won’t be pretty.🧵11/17
I have always felt that China is looking for a way to emerge as the victor, and that is worryingly possible. If the US and Europe don't offer security to Ukraine, China might step into the gap, using its leverage on Russia. They could even offer a better deal than Trump's.🧵12/17
Ukraine has a lot to offer to China in return for security—rebuilding, ports, agricultural produce. There will be those in Europe who will support this. This gambit could be called a "Kissinger", splitting the US and Europe as Kissinger split the Soviet Union and China.🧵13/17
It gets worse. China as Ukraine's protector would start replacing the US in the role of keeping Russia out of the Eastern Flank. EU countries in the East would be dependent on China's protection and the racketeering would spread West.🧵14/17
What needs to happen to avoid this all-too-likely disaster? My hope lies with Europe, with the appearance of a leader with Churchill’s resolve, the spirit to say we will never surrender, we will defend all of Europe, from Ukraine to Portugal.🧵15/17
I am fully aware that my suggestion leads only to blood, toil, tears and sweat. But we have done it before and we can do it again. The alternative is to rebuild the continent after another devastating war, and that would be much harder and take much more time.🧵16/17
So I return from Munich to Lithuania with dark thoughts on my mind. And while I accept that the statements made by the US Vice President were the necessary medicine for a lethargic Europe, I just pray the cure doesn’t kill the patient.🧵17/17
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More from @GLandsbergis

Feb 13
🧵1/6
Europe won't survive sleeping through another wake-up call. We should jump out of bed and throw on a shirt. We should do what we can, with what we’ve got. And we’ve got a lot. Here's how to step things up as the US steps down: Image
🧵2/6
Ukraine’s full integration into the EU has to start now, in 2025, not 2030. Alongside economic benefits, the EU can also serve as a deterrence umbrella, and Ukraine should be under it.
🧵3/6
With Ukraine secured and part of the EU, rebuilding can begin. Trade and investment will grow. This generates revenue for defence, which makes Ukraine stronger, which attracts more investment. We can start this positive feedback loop right now.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 22
President Trump put Putin in a tough spot by issuing an ultimatum. I'm sure this is not the way Putin expected things to work.🧵1/4
Now Putin has to choose - accept that he fears new sanctions because his economy is a shambles, or prove that his imperialist ambitions will not be limited by these demands.🧵2/4
The ultimatum is a step in the right direction, but we must do more - not only sanctions, but also military support and security guarantees. We must put Western might on the Ukrainian side of the scales.🧵3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jan 18
Bloomberg reports that the EU is considering dropping its @wto case against China due to a "lack of evidence" that China's sudden halt in trade with Lithuania was retribution for supporting Taiwan. Dropping the case is a bad idea, but don't worry, it gets worse.🧵1/6
Withdrawing without even waiting for the official ruling means abandoning the defence of the single market, accepting China's argument and allowing a precedent to be set. China could then attack any other country in the same way.🧵2/6
Lithuanian customs data unquestionably show a sudden drop in trade from €300mln to zero in a matter of days. If the EU fought the case to the end, but didn’t win, there would be grounds to complain and demand a review of the way such decisions are made.🧵3/6
Read 7 tweets
Jan 7
So… what can you do with a nuclear bully?
1. Provide protection to the victims
2. Punish escalation with escalation
🧵1/7
If a country does not have the protection of its own nukes, or the nukes of friendly allies, unfriendly nuclear powers will come along and threaten it into submission. Bullies attack the unprotected.
🧵2/7
As Zelenskyy said in the Fridman interview, NATO membership is a quick and solid security guarantee… but a simple ceasefire and signed agreement is not.
🧵3/7
Read 7 tweets
Dec 4, 2024
🧵There are five illusions about Ukraine that lead to flawed “peace” plans that are doomed to fail. I have listed the illusions here in the hope that reality-based discussions can soon become the norm.👇
1️⃣2️⃣3️⃣4️⃣5️⃣
1️⃣The Illusion of Diplomacy.
Diplomacy alone cannot keep Ukraine safe. Words must be backed up by strength on the battlefield. To get a fair deal you have to carry a very big stick, not just an olive branch. Ukraine must be much stronger if Europe wants to stay secure.👇
2️⃣The Illusion of Expense.
The headline figures of "billions" create the illusion that we can't afford to do more. But when the pandemic hit, we raised €750bn in the EU alone. The amounts needed to secure victory and lasting peace for Ukraine are small in comparison.👇
Read 7 tweets
Nov 5, 2024
The peacemongers have failed.
Escalation was not managed, conflicts were not contained, people were not protected, laws were not respected. Now I hear victory is "unrealistic" and not even worth fighting for. But I see things very differently, and here's why. 👇🧵1/10
The messy failure and total bankruptcy of our strategy is hard to watch. In desperation some hallucinate that a “peace agreement” would be achievable, effective, practical and sustainable, a magic wand to make all the bad things go away. 🧵2/10
Some hope a “peace agreement” would not only wash away our sins, but also make people forget that victory has always been possible. Sure, we could have won at any time, even now, but we chose to lose instead. Worse than that, we forced our choice on Ukraine. 🧵3/10
Read 10 tweets

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