🧵 Trump is firing major parts of the workforce, there are bound to be electoral ramifications across the country. Political & economic problems may arise in congressional districts that rely the most on federal jobs, so let’s examine who they are (tag your local journalists):
Here are the highlights:
- 57 CDs whose workforce is over 4% federal employees (another 36 has between 3-3.99%)
- Partisan breakdown: 30R - 27 Dem
- 18 are in Trump-won states. 8 are in Harris-won states
To not go every CD, we will just be examining those that generate at least 4% of their workforce from the federal government (all numbers are civilian, so non-military):
1. Alabama-02 (5.17%): Democrat Shomari Figures
2. Alabama-07 (7.12%): Republican Dale Strong
3. Alaska At-Large (6.31%): Republican Nick Begich
Btw if you are ever wanting to research *anything* there’s a good chance the Congressional Research Service has already made an excellent and well-cited report! It’s great to know the federal government makes stuff like this easily searchable and freely available
*AL-05 not AL-07
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I think we - including me - are going to be tearing down Democratic policy, trends, comms, etc. for months to figure out what happened but after sleeping on it here are ten thoughts (that might not be true):
1) Democratic failures in urban governance coming to roost
2) Democratic rejection of media spaces to occupy/have a presence in (Fox for decades now & podcasting spaces popular with “normie” men) 3) Staffer class (and NGO/activist class) being dominated by elite liberal college ed+ pushing the party
4) Continued over-belief/reliance on field ops in campaign infrastructure (it’s great to have but clearly of lower importance than other mediums/over-indexing Obama 2012) 5) Voter rejection of picking employment over inflation (🤷🏻♂️)
Mark my words: sometime in the next decade, Democrats are going to kick the tires on lifting the ban on direct-from-manufacturers sale of automobiles. It is going to create one of the bloodiest political fights in a long time
But if they think they can get past the cycle of hell downballot that it’ll create, they’re going to be extremely tempted to do it. Not just for market efficiency reasons or for theoretically bringing down car prices, but to kneecap a major GOP funding source (auto dealers)
And btw this would be an excellent issue to try and bring onboard libertarians & cross-pressure Tesla fans on as well
🧵 Are you a Democrat who just wants to be positive no matter who Kamala picks as her running mate? Do I have a guide for you to share positive things to your family, friends, enemies and coworkers!
1) Josh Shapiro - Governor of important swing state, strong electoral track record, famously cut government red tape, sounds like Obama, works well in the Great Lakes, family man, moderate vibes
2) Tim Walz - Governor of a Midwestern state, passed a lot of big legislation, he fights (!), good interviewer, progressive w/ moderate vibes, doesn’t upset the party, former football coach, regional accent sure makes him sound relatable
Russia is at this point openly considering wrecking its country (even more) while pursuing a failed invasion of a country 1/28th its size and with 1/3rd its population
And for everyone saying: equip and train them with what? Yes. You’re correct. I think (?) Russia could still afford to equip them as light infantry - because this would be over many successive waves of conscription - but obviously as Motorized/Armored formations? Not a chance
I think what’s being said here - that there is a lane for explicit discussion on personal faith in the Democratic Party - is true and oft ignored. I don’t necessarily think it’ll lead to some breakthrough w/ evangelicals but it is a way of approaching them esp. on policy
And beyond just the purely strategic, being a party of free speech is directly tied into allowing ourselves to voice our religious convictions and harkens back to the earliest days of our Republic. This somewhat dovetails with another issue I’ve harped on post-2016:
The Democratic Party needs to become the party of consistent and vocal patriotism. It was an arena that we ceded far too often, and with constant attacks on our nation’s institutions is somewhere Republicans have in-turn given us a space to step into. Be a party of the positive
Fwiw - I understand the political realities of why we aren’t. And that’s partly incumbent on previous administrations (both Dem and Rep) for not fully engaging on the benefits of trade nor assisting communities legitimately hurt by swings in fortune due to trade
The reality is though, the US abandoning trade has left us comparatively weak to our competitors everywhere but especially in the Indo-Pacific/sub-Saharan Africa. A major thing those regions want - FDI and trade liberalization - are things we quite simply aren’t able to do rn